Open for Business: Canadian Politics 2019

Jagmeet came to my workplace yesterday and really impressed us all. He did what to me is a Jonathan Richman entrance - showing up on his own at the back and taking ages greeting people personally before finally reaching the mic. He did some quite good media bits, and then spent a long time chatting and walking around. Unlike John Horgan who blasts in at 90 miles an hour beaming from ear to ear and trying his damnedest to throw off energy and friendliness, delivers a fire & brimstone speech and back on the bus in under 5 mins. With Jagmeet it doesn't feel like a performance.

Jagmeet Singh: is this guy a class fucking act or what?

omg how did I miss the Differentology thing? I am so sad I am not a citizen yet

I drove among the luxury homes on Island Park today and began to get more of a sense of McKenna's base of support. Almost all Liberal signs there, unlike Centretown/Glebe/Old Ottawa S, where you see at least as much NDP and Green.

Oh wow:

I've started doing this after every rally. It's become known as the Jagmeet Jump – and I'm here for it.

Make sure you go vote tomorrow and then jump around like this after casting your ballot!!

Plan it out here: https://t.co/Y36vsKqFQ2 #elxn43 pic.twitter.com/xEvI63wXj9

— Jagmeet Singh (@theJagmeetSingh) October 20, 2019

I don't always agree with Coyne but I do enjoy reading him - he hates every party, hopes for a Conservative minority mainly just to punish the Liberals despite thinking Tory policies are mostly terrible, and is going to vote Green: https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/election-2019/andrew-coyne-cant-the-liberals-and-conservatives-both-lose#comments-area

He's a clown imo.

good luck canada

Thanks.

not calling that jump the NDPogo feels like a miss

I didn't plan to vote in advance, but there was a polling station right at the library, so I voted last week. You guys will hate me for this, but I voted Trudeau, even though I've really come to like what I've seen of Singh. If there's another election soon and--key--he's a viable option, I'll vote for him next time.

so you wouldn't have voted for him today anyway?

I am probably following things less than any of you, but the Conservative losses and NDP gains being portrayed in the media in just the past few days feel encouraging. it's also odd how the two feel like separate phenomena (most Conservative losses are probably actually Liberal gains.... if there's anything to any of this noise)

I wouldn't have, though--it's close enough between the PCs and Liberals that I wouldn't risk propping up Scheer.

That should read "I wouldn't have, no..."

right on. I only went NDP this time since the Conservative newcomer my riding doesn't look like he really has a shot. I'm still gonna be on my high horse about it.

Yeah, I live in a very safely liberal riding so can vote for who I really want, but I would vote liberal if I was in a riding where I thought it was gonna be close race between liberals and conservatives. As much as I have issues with the liberals, the conservatives are worse in every aspect and I really don't want even a conservative minority.

anyway, this is the closest I ever recall a Canadian election being. When was the last time the polls had both parties basically tied on election day?

I predict liberals outperforming polls a bit due to last minute strategic voting, but that might just be me being optimistic.

338canada.com thinks that neck and neck business is done. who knows

The odds of the Libs winning the most seats has been around 60% on Grenier's CBC Poll Tracker for most of the campaign, actually. The Libs and Tories have been closer to being neck and neck when it comes to absolute popular vote numbers.

I don't think anyone is going to hate you for voting Liberal in a Liberal/Tory swing riding, clemenza. I would probably do the same if I lived in Nepean or Orleans. The Liberals have done a number of things right imo: the carbon tax, reduction of child poverty with the child benefit, relatively liberal policies on immigration and refugee resettlement. They'd definitely be preferable to any kind of Tory government.

I am probably following things less than any of you, but the Conservative losses and NDP gains being portrayed in the media in just the past few days feel encouraging. it's also odd how the two feel like separate phenomena (most Conservative losses are probably actually Liberal gains.... if there's anything to any of this noise)

Hard to be sure. West of London, ON, the contest can actually be between the Tories and NDP.

So losses from one might end up being gains for the other.

I'm in London, ON in a solidly, but not secure, Liberal riding. I voted Liberal.

I voted Liberal because I think Steven Guilbeault has a better chance of beating the BQ candidate. I may regret it tomorrow.

Why would you regret that? Because of possible vote-splitting with the NDP candidate?

Precisely. I'd much rather the NDP got reelected, but I'm betting that won't happen, alas.

Oh, there's an NDP incumbent? That does sound tricky.

The incumbent, Hélène Laverdière, announced her retirement, so the NDP's substitute candidate is Nimâ Machouf, who doesn't appear to have gained much traction compared to her BQ rival Michel Duchesne. I hope to be proven wrong.

My riding is still >99% liberal according to 338canada.com. I'm gonna vote Green.

if I lived in Nepean

Incidentally, FB shared with me an ad from the Tory candidate in this suburban riding, which just seemed so quintessentially suburban Ontario in its perspective and priorities: from memory, "while Justin Trudeau is spending your money on overseas projects, Nepean residents are stuck in traffic". I'm sure Scheer will fix that.

Debating whether to do the Jagmeet jump, provided no one is looking.

dude no campaigning at the polling station

https://sd.keepcalms.com/i/don-t-blame-me-i-voted-ndp.png

Good luck to us. I’m anticipating a minority govt so I am not nearly as nervous as in 2015.

I'm more nervous i think. i may be misremembering but wasn't trudeau front-runner on election day last time? i seem to recall being like "oh well the ndp aren't going to do as well (this ended up being an underestimation)* as hope but least we're prob done with harper".

*mulcair had gone into the campaign as the front-runner in polls, election was a bloodbath for the ndp.

yeah Trudeau was definitely considered the front-runner in the days before election day and the eventual majority was predicted by several polls iirc. This time it feels like just slightly bad polling or small movements in voting intentions could make a significant difference in the final result.

many xps- coyne's level of trudeau-hatred is ridiculous imho. but i do value his extremely idiosyncratic contrarianism as discourse

god I hate the strategic voting campaign so much this time

or rather the messaging. I see so many people just saying Vote Liberal with no thought to the situation in individual ridings, and heard an ad for the Liberals where they lifted strategic voting language pretty shamelessly.

Vote strategically for the Liberals by voting strategically for the Liberals.

Yeah, he's definitely idiosyncratic and contrarian but I appreciate his mix of strong, consistent principles and total lack of any partisan allegiance to anyone. (He hated Harper at least as much as Trudeau; I've seen a right-winger 'blame' him for bringing down Harper. The National Post comments section typically seems to regard him as a Liberal shill, incredibly.) He probably IS the 19th century British liberal that Jordan Peterson claims to be and is as consistently supportive of civil liberties as he is brutally pro-free market on economic issues (which is actually part of why he loves the carbon tax, a market-based solution to clinate change). xp to flopson wrt Coyne

when someone talks about balancing the budget thats when i reach for my revolver

I don't agree with Coyne at all on economics but I do find him interesting to read, as a columnist (thankfully not a politician) with actual economics training - he freely acknowledges that even permanent deficits within reason wouldn't be any kind of disaster; he just opposes them on grounds of ideological principle: https://www.theguardian.pe.ca/opinion/national-perspectives/andrew-coyne-no-permanent-deficits-wouldnt-kill-us-that-doesnt-make-them-a-good-idea-358651/

We do not deserve the Maritimes.

hey now with the Newfoundland-exclusionary language

And you with the Labrador haha

We do not deserve anything east of Gaspésie.

yeah I was hoping you'd catch that. o Canada n stuff everybody :D

Atlantic Canada p much always goes Liberal federally iirc? About as reliably as the Tories picking up a lot of the Prairies?

I know but in these times what is certain anymore? Right wing populism is a bit hard to predict.

Don't fuck this up, Central Canada.

I'm actually p excited about this Green lead in Fredericton. Hope they pick it up.