PMs change and lol we're all gonna die (but brexit will never end)

The ERG are on-board, mostly. The Tories that have been lost seem like they will mostly vote for Brexit, as they have in the past — especially if they want to find some route back into the party.

I'm not sure it will pass but I can see it being very tight. A huge amount depends on Lab.

even if they aren't expelled - and ffs why not? - i don't think handing Boris Johnson a victory and potentially a victory General Election is going to do much for their prospective future Labour careers

(xp) The ERG voted against May's deal and I reckon they will all vote for this deal.

This sets it out, I agree there's a fair bit of speculation involved but I don't see, given the numbers, where any great confidence in the deal being voted down is coming from.

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-the-pm-needs-320-votes-from-mps-for-his-deal-to-pass-is-that-likely-11838158

By voting for Brexit they keep Johnson in which means it's less likely they will get back in the party?

We all agree it will be close.

I don't think it will make it less likely - Johnson has been warm to talk of them returning (and Cummings won't give a shit after the WA is passed)

Graham stringer has said he’ll decide which way he votes tomorrow, but in the meantime:

EXCLUSIVE: Tory Right-wingers asking Attorney General to confirm UK could crash out "no deal" in a year if no free trade deal struck with EU - full story @joemurphylondon and @nicholascecil https://t.co/DQXTEosHge

— nicholas cecil (@nicholascecil) October 18, 2019

bush being depressing. i don’t understand why you wouldn’t be clear you’d withdraw the whip:


It’s definitely the essence of successful trade policy – Johnson achieved his triumph by abandoning Cummingesque rants about decisive victories over Ireland and the Remainers but by finding areas of mutual advantage and interest. And if this deal passes – and given that Labour looks unlikely to withdraw the whip from Labour rebels who vote for it its chances look fairly good – then the ability to find mutual advantage and interest will become the core of our future prosperity.

But is our political discourse capable of engaging with those trade-offs and challenges? Watching the TV news, where the Brexit process is being flattened into an argument about who won, and who lost, I’m not convinced that our political debate about the realities of Brexit or its aftermath is as developed as we might hope.

osama_thumbs_up.jpg

Remainer Stuart Rose, who was chairman of the main Britain Stronger in Europe campaign against Brexit, tells @BBCr4today he backs Johnson's deal. "We have got to move on... reflect on pros and cons... lean in..."
Big PR boost for the PM

— Matt Chorley (@MattChorley) October 18, 2019

Been through this cycle a few times now:

Infighting on this issue is heating up - just received this text from a senior Labour insider:

“Lansman's move to boot out MPs would have as much chance of success as Lansman's move to remove Watson. Zero, without Jeremy's support”

— Tom Rayner (@RaynerSkyNews) October 18, 2019

Apparently one of the ERG-ers is going around saying Boris Johnson’s deal could make a no-deal Brexit possible at the end of next year, when the transition ends - which, usefully, might spook some of the waverers to vote against. I hope.

all anti-waverer ammunition welcome at this stage tbh

But is our political discourse capable of engaging with those trade-offs and challenges? Watching the TV news, where the Brexit process is being flattened into an argument about who won, and who lost, I’m not convinced that our political debate about the realities of Brexit or its aftermath is as developed as we might hope.

depressingly otm. so, whatever happens about Brexit, what can we plebs everyday folks do about this?

I mean yes, probably less chance to do anything about it if we go down the whole deregulation/Americanisation Tory Brexithole.

PS I know I keep asking stupid questions which are too boring/obvious to answer but does anyone know what time the vote is likely to be tomorrow?

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/696730079e6a63359956b635680ee50774b2b604/0_214_6720_4032/master/6720.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=d442ffb322659f4592b3219efcf9fc48

i regret to inform you that led by donkeys are back on their bullshit with this strident message ploughed into a blameless wiltshire field

Another thing to think about is what amendments get selected tomorrow and if any of them can wreck the deal

Some Spartans frustrated at Sammy Wilson / Ian Paisley Jnr / Nigel Dodds counter-whipping operation trying to get them to oppose the deal

One says Wilson in particular is being “annoying” and is hell-bent on no-deal

Sammy annoying? Hard to credit tbh.

fwiw this is simon richards's votecount spreadsheet (aka twitter's @simonk_133, account currently locked): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13ghQytueisTWtO12HXvCSyRV_LnPGlDJob8rJWLVKe8/edit#gid=0

if he's right -- he's EXTREMELY circumspect about it! -- the deal goes down by 1

lol and now a tidier attempt:
fwiw this is simon richards's votecount spreadsheet (aka twitter's @simonk_133, account currently locked):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13ghQytueisTWtO12HXvCSyRV_LnPGlDJob8rJWLVKe8/edit#gid=0

if he's right -- he's EXTREMELY circumspect about it! -- the deal goes down by 1

https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2Fl4FATJpd4LWgeruTK%2Fgiphy.gif&f=1&nofb=1

That spreadsheet with the deal losing by 1 vote seems to have Jared O'Mara down as voting against, but he's surely not going to turn up, so...

...I don't think I can bring myself to finish this sentence. I'm going to look out of the window, maybe there are some good ducks or pigeons out there right now

So it looks like it comes down to 13 Kinnock Letter Labour MPs - which includes the dreaded Skinnock himself.

https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fimg.huffingtonpost.com%2Fasset%2F5a136159140000891d50e7dc.gif%3Fops%3Dscalefit_630_noupscale&f=1&nofb=1

look mum and dad, I'm a very important Labour MP for a day!

Not saying get your hopes up BUT

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-parliaments-50098128

The Letwin amendment. A serious problem for the Govt, as would allow wavering Labour and Tory MPs to kick the can down the road rather than decide tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/zdlRq02OhT

— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) October 18, 2019

Good thread on removal of whip. I guess in this kind of vote it might not matter

Not at all confident here, but I think I may be right in saying that no Labour MP has lost the whip for voting against the whip for more than 50 years.

— Lafargue (@Lafargue) October 18, 2019

have to say i'm thrilled about the prospect of this deal squeaking through tomorrow and then us crashing out with no-deal next year after the stories spend 12 months pissing in their own mouths instead of doing anything constructive

The who is doing what on that s/s will change as well. Lab as well as Tories

@simonk_133 on various potential issues with his spreadsheet

Here are a few calls that seem to me right now to be most uncertain:
- will any ERG vote no (atm I'm saying none)
- size of Labour yes vote (the biggest unknown I think)
- Preference of whipless anti-no deal Tories
- Norman Lamb
- Will Jared O'Mara turn up
- Lab/ex-Lab Lexiters

re: withdrawing the whip. on the one hand, it's possible they're still needed in the tent, for now. on the other hand, any opportunity to purge the cunts.

Yeah definitely, but you can see Corbyn's rationale. It will be used against Labour but it's whether that stick or not.

yeah and it would almost be premature while the numbers are on this knife-edge. no point using the threat if it's counterproductive or ineffective, can always quietly get rid of them later

The truth is out. Michael Gove and Dominic Raab are telling Tory hardcore Brexiteers that the "deal" is a gateway to No Deal. pic.twitter.com/gh1RLa49jZ

— Owen Jones🌹 (@OwenJones84) October 18, 2019

welp, there it is

waverers can't say they weren't warned

what kind of consequences are there for the border if this is true?

No idea but it might be delayed anyway because of Letwin

only shit yourself if Letwin fails.

Sarah Champion has come out in favour of the deal. Should have had whip withdrawn years ago for her scummy Sun article, but I’ll settle for deselection.

i dunno but i have a feeling they will be... bad xp

not sure if the Letwin amendment helps anything but certainly not my heart/brain at this point

(xxp) She wasn't one of the signatories of the Kinnock Letter and didn't vote for May's deal. Great.

i.e. not mentioned in the spreadsheet, so Boris is ahead now?

https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2FbqNwwuxz661Vu%2Fgiphy.gif&f=1&nofb=1

Champion was on that letter, according to Simon's s/s

look i know what the answer to this is, but if there's a single Tory Remainer not rotten to the core with moral cowardice they know what they're voting for now

Oh right, didn't notice, still ahead now though?

(xp)

not sure if the Letwin amendment helps anything but certainly not my heart/brain at this point

Myth building about Jeremy Corbyn

A thread

— Jon Worth (@jonworth) October 18, 2019

Well not all 18 have declared xps to tom

bitter lol at that jon worth thread, people are so fuckin weird about corbyn

that's because this all Corbyn's fault, as leader of the opposition he shd've had A50 renounced years back

just put 'corbyn liverpool' into twitter and am now surely dead

good post, thx for sharing yr thoughts neil

If the rumours about Corbyn being in Liverpool tomorrow and missing the vote are true????....I'm speechless. But perhaps they are unfounded #StopBrexit

— Neil Dickinson (@neil_dickinson) October 18, 2019