PMs change and lol we're all gonna die (but brexit will never end)

*considers preparing jelly and ice cream*

Boris Johnson’s government is pessimistic about the chances of securing a #Brexit deal after his Northern Irish allies raised objections to the plans that have been drawn up in talks in Brussels, according to a British official, @TimRoss_1 reports. https://t.co/TWY3PGvbVt

— Nikos Chrysoloras (@nchrysoloras) October 16, 2019

anvil - yeah, sorry, not 'early' 2017 - my bad.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/22/voting-intention-wales-labour-44-conservatives

First line is rather telling!

While these shifts in public opinion could be seen as fairly erratic

Get away.

xp - Well, no, in early 2017 YouGov (after changes to the way they measured the poll which maybe did weigh against Labour) had Labour at 44%. They haven't changed anything since then (afaik).

― Ned Trifle X,

So the shift from 20+% polling to 40+% polling just after the election campaign started was actually more a reflection of the changes to the way YouGov measured their poll?

Apropos of nothing, former ILXoR Yancey Strickler is due on Sky News's All Out Politics at 10:45.

I wonder in basic terms what is *the way* a polling company founded by two tories and disproportionately has the tories ahead in more polls than any other pollsters since 2017, conducts their polling?

if strickler's still union-busting he's bad, if he says my book was the only good thing kickstarter ever funded he's correct (but still bad for union-busting)

beaten to the punch about kickstarter's unionbusting

not cool imo

I don't know, have you seen The Irishman? Bust these unions before they bust your head

union busting
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/business/2019/04/23/john-mcdonnell_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqxAHgvSpW8b5g6-J_2-NZhpa5G601S0VTN8nzablXFgY.JPG?imwidth=450

busting makes me feel bad

oh noes :(

Breaking: EU sees Brexit negotiations at impasse, as remaining issues can't be resolved at technical level. A new mandate from London is needed. UK government is trying to get DUP on board. More on @TheTerminal

— Nikos Chrysoloras (@nchrysoloras) October 16, 2019

who could possibly have foreseen this
https://www.rte.ie/centuryireland//images/uploads/article-images/Ed33-Connolly.jpg

So the shift from 20+% polling to 40+% polling just after the election campaign started was actually more a reflection of the changes to the way YouGov measured their poll?

― anvil

Nah, sorry, I've not been at all clear here. They made the changes way back in (ancient history) 2014 so these fluctuations are nothing to do with that (unless they changed something since then and didn't mention it).

Is that James Connolly?

even if he gets the DUP on board, giggity, doesn't he have a 20-30 vote minority?

The headbangers might fall in line with DUP support for the deal, though, as it removes one of their main “objections” and esp with threat of being fucked out of the party.

at least they are the brexit and unionist party for a few more billion

Is that James Connolly?

The most famous Hibee in history?

Or at least the only one shot by the British government... probably.

Dúnedin Connolly GAC, a Scottish GAA club takes its name from his.(citation needed)

Or at least the only one shot by the British government... probably.

Dunedin Connollys was founded in 1988 on Leith Walk, in the north of Edinburgh, at an Irish dancing show.[1] Father Eamonn Sweeney, the priest who had been instrumental in setting up Gaelic football clubs in the west of Scotland, had a chance meeting with Belfast native Anthony Haughey [2] and plans for an Edinburgh-based Gaelic team were formed.

None more Irish.

lol London GAA’s ground is in Boris’s constituency

The Labour vote in Leave areas collapses with grateful Leavers flocking to the Tories

This bit though is uneccesarrily panicky. Where is the evidence that Labour leave voters in Nothern areas would switch staright from Labour to Tory over Brexit? They might stay at home. And I can see a Brexit Party voter (who was previously a Labour voter) going Tory but not the above.

Also there aren't enough Remoaners flocking to Lib Dems that would hand lots of seats to the Lib Dems.

*claim to fame* I was on the front of the Irish Post in 1978/79ish with some Irish dancing fules.

https://img.maximummedia.ie/joe_ie/eyJkYXRhIjoie1widXJsXCI6XCJodHRwOlxcXC9cXFwvbWVkaWEtam9lLm1heGltdW1tZWRpYS5pZS5zMy5hbWF6b25hd3MuY29tXFxcL3dwLWNvbnRlbnRcXFwvdXBsb2Fkc1xcXC8yMDE4XFxcLzA5XFxcLzA2MTcxODQyXFxcL01pY2hhZWwtQ29sbGlucy1SRUEtc2NyZWVuc2hvdDEuanBnXCIsXCJ3aWR0aFwiOjc2NyxcImhlaWdodFwiOjQzMSxcImRlZmF1bHRcIjpcImh0dHBzOlxcXC9cXFwvd3d3LmpvZS5pZVxcXC9hc3NldHNcXFwvaW1hZ2VzXFxcL2pvZVxcXC9uby1pbWFnZS5wbmc_aWQ9MjY0YTJkYmUzNzBmMmM2NzVmY2RcIixcIm9wdGlvbnNcIjpbXX0iLCJoYXNoIjoiMDZiMTkxMmEwY2ZhNGNlYjIzMTlmMGUwNmFmMTU1NGIyYmMyMzEwMSJ9/michael-collins-rea-screenshot1.jpg

(I’ll stop posting Irish twitter memes now)

Also there aren't enough Remoaners flocking to Lib Dems that would hand lots of seats to the Lib Dems.

There might be in some middle class Remainiac areas and, anyway, it could still depress the Labour vote.

you could also argue a stronger than in '17 Libdems might be a better thing for Labour than the tories.

yeah a LOT of Tory voters will go Lib Dem this time around if my football forum experiences are reflective

lol London GAA’s ground is in Boris’s constituency

I spent a fine 1994 New Year's Eve in there

Read that as 1944 for a moment and was mad confused

A stronger Lib Dem vote will hurt the Tories more, for sure. Getting fed up with this game of UK Government Upbeat / EU Optimistic ping pong that's going on at the moment tbh.

... sorry, wiff-waff.

... sorry, UK Government Downbeat / EU Optimistic ping pong.

Stronger Lib Dem vote ultimately hurts everybody on account of them being Tory cunts

Well, there is that.

we are watching the online brexit business readiness event at work and fucking hell is it some dystopian wrong timeline shit

The new fun is VAT: NI will need a EU-harmonised VAT system for frictionless border with the EU, UK will want a different VAT system from EU, which makes east-west trade pretty frictiony and will definitely push the DUP over the edge.

This is what makes Putney particularly interesting in an imminent GE. Already very close between incumbent former Tory not standing and Labour but with LDs probably taking as many votes from both of them to become more of a three way battle. I'm not sure any other marginal has that precise same config. If it doesn't go red I'd still rather it flipped to LD than stayed Tory whoever Greening's replacement ends up being.

Also worth noting the DUP are trying to get Stormont back before the 21st so gay marriage and abortion stay illegal

At least we can look forward to Richmond Park going LD again

i bet "over the edge" DUP folks go much more puce than the primest of Yorkshire Rotary club gammon, glowing puce!

weapons-grade gammon

can I say fuck the CBI again pls

Honestly, the state of this - well done Labour policy for calling the CBI out. (I must say there is a bit of a cottage industry out there of making up Labour policies and then sticking ludicrous price tags on them. https://t.co/k2nYHTlO2K

— James Meadway (@meadwaj) October 16, 2019

i bet "over the edge" DUP folks go much more puce than the primest of Yorkshire Rotary club gammon, glowing puce!

It's more a violent shade of Orange.

Gammon a l'Orange