PMs change and lol we're all gonna die (but brexit will never end)

Plus I completely disagree that Boris leaving with a deal fucks over the LDs and not Labour, I'd say the reverse is true.

Sure it does. What else do the Lib Dems have to offer? Can you name a single non-Brexit policy of theirs?

Anyway, not linking to article directly, but you love to see it:

Excl: Big split opens up among Tory Eurosceptics over whether to back Boris’s Brexit deal, as Owen Paterson brands it “absurd” and “unacceptable”. Iain Duncan-Smith also said to have “exploded” at No10 officials.https://t.co/tJoBZ0lk0N

— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) October 15, 2019

Also can’t remember where I saw but supposedly Labour telling their MPs that anyone voting for the deal gets the whip withdrawn

reports of an exploding iain duncan smith are greatly exaggerated

alas

good

I know it's Windmill Jolyon but he's generally good on procedural stuff right?

If the House of Commons were to approve a withdrawal agreement on 19 October, and there was no extension, we would have No Deal on 31 October. Here's why. THREAD.

— Jo Maugham QC (@JolyonMaugham) October 13, 2019

I'm guessing in the event of a deal passing Parliament there'd be a small extension or immediately implemented transition period but who knows.

The election is going to be about Boris Getting Brexit Done and nothing else, the media will make sure of that, if nothing else. The Lib Dems can present themselves as the party that bravely stood up for Remain while Labour dithered and procrastinated and Corbyn was a Brexiteer all along blah blah blah, hoovering up the Remainiac vote. The Labour vote in Leave areas collapses with grateful Leavers flocking to the Tories and disgusted Remainers boycotting Labour and voting Lib Dem. I'm not actually saying this will happen because I don't want to kill myself just yet.

Oh and this too

One senior minister confirms that a vote on any New Deal *will* be a confidence matter for Eurosceptics.

Government currently thinks 3-5 Tory MPs will not support it and will be duly ejected from the party.

— Sebastian Payne (@SebastianEPayne) October 15, 2019

Think windmill Jolyon probably otm, and did they ever get all those statutory instruments to covert EU law into domestic passed? So to avoid no deal there has to be an extension

slightly questionable source

Labour MP just told me that they have been warned, if they vote for a deal, regardless of how good it is for the country, they will not be allowed to stand as Labour MPs again.

— Nadine Dorries (@NadineDorries) October 15, 2019

The election is going to be about Boris Getting Brexit Done and nothing else, the media will make sure of that, if nothing else. The Lib Dems can present themselves as the party that bravely stood up for Remain while Labour dithered and procrastinated and Corbyn was a Brexiteer all along blah blah blah, hoovering up the Remainiac vote. The Labour vote in Leave areas collapses with grateful Leavers flocking to the Tories and disgusted Remainers boycotting Labour and voting Lib Dem. I'm not actually saying this will happen because I don't want to kill myself just yet.

grateful Leavers flocking to the Tories

I just don’t think “leave” is as strong a cultural identity as “never tory” in some of these places...

(I am here for ronan burtenshaw Vs emma kennedy)

You mean like when Scots used to brag we never vote Tory? And that all changed after what had happened? Oh that's right, a divisive referendum.

SAME, she’s so fucking awful

I'm extremely sceptical that the deal will pass Parliament but assuming it does then the campaign to rejoin will begin almost immediately. It'll be relatively small at first but the LibDems will cloak themselves in that flag which has the virtue of being more consistent and logical than their current position. They might do alright out of it tbh.

Meanwhile I still wouldn't expect it to translate to a thundering victory for the Tories, Johnson is widely disliked and Labour's domestic policy is likely to be popular. Obviously Corbyn is also widely unpopular but few people dislike them both equally.

I can see the prospect of a second Scottish referendum being weaponised against Labour without necessarily benefiting them in Scotland though.

when the latest YouGov poll has got them 4 pts ahead that doesn't say tory landslide to me and I bet their internal polling is much grimmer. This is a far right bxp rump version of the conservative party, they don't have a broad enough appeal for a landslide, the One Nation posturing by Boris won't win back voters they've alienated. All imo of course. i think some people exaggerate the potential of the "he's done brexit" bounce when whatever possible deal he gets is guaranteed to piss off people on both sides in the short term, and as already said this will only be the start of further tedious negging in the long term.

Can't see how Tories can net gain on their current seat total. I actually want to because I distrust this sense of relative optimism so.

“Billions” to bribe the DUP this time, says FT

you've got to give it to them, DUP are nuff gangsta!

I can see the prospect of a second Scottish referendum being weaponised against Labour without necessarily benefiting them in Scotland though.

― Matt DC, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:35 (sixteen minutes ago) link

While this is no doubt true, a side effect of Brexit has been the fact that actually English voters dgaf about that anyway (or at least nowhere near as much as portrayed). There's a lot of old assumptions about the electorate (and other electorates) that have been blown up

If a deal passes will "Labour leavers" really vote for the Tories? Maybe, the Welsh seem to be heading down that path?

Welsh Westminster voting intention:

CON: 29% (+5)
LAB: 25% (+3)
LDEM: 16% (-)
BREX: 14% (-4)
PC: 12% (-3)

via @YouGov, 10 - 14 Oct
Chgs. w/ Jul

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) October 15, 2019

Fucking mystifying.

DUP source says “gaps remain and further work is required”

thread title contender obv, but i can’t help interpreting this as “we said £2B, the govt will only give us £1B”

As someone terrible pointed out yesterday, May was 10 points ahead in Wales in April 2017.

Better source for the Labour whip:

LOTO's calculation will be that if Labour MPs vote for a Brexit deal without repercussions, then the Lib Dems will run around the country saying Corbyn facilitated Brexit. So Labour MPs won't be allowed to keep the whip if they vote for it. So they won't vote for it.

— Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) October 15, 2019

s someone terrible pointed out yesterday, May was 10 points ahead in Wales in April 2017.

True, but why are the Tories anywhere near this figure in Wales, is my point?

polls are bs

I guess what I'm really interested in is why those 14% BXP votes go, if Brexit happens? Also LOL PC demanded independence 'cos the Scottish are.

didn't realise that was the Welsh voting intentions YouGov poll i was looking at earlier, was gonna say they usually always put them at least 10 pts ahead and stats have shown they have a bias that stretches credibility.

Where not why.

xp - Well, no, in early 2017 YouGov (after changes to the way they measured the poll which maybe did weigh against Labour) had Labour at 44%. They haven't changed anything since then (afaik).

/s someone terrible pointed out yesterday, May was 10 points ahead in Wales in April 2017./

True, but why are the Tories anywhere near this figure in Wales, is my point?

Like we had people giving gloating quotes to journalists about how they were going to be the top party in Wales and take number of historical Labour seats and...what? Polls change when there’s an election and people have to take their vote seriously.

No and, of course, even 44% was off what Labour actually got in 2017 election. In fact the tories did better than that poll above. So, yeah, ok, polls are bs.

(I mean, no, it didn't matter last time!)

I'm on the ledge but you guys are doing a good job of talking me down.

xp - Well, no, in early 2017 YouGov (after changes to the way they measured the poll which maybe did weigh against Labour) had Labour at 44%. They haven't changed anything since then (afaik).

― Ned Trifle X,

Which month?

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/01/05/voting-intention-conservatives-39-labour-26

January 2017 - 26%

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/03/10/voting-intention-conservatives-44-labour-25-8-9-ma

March 2017 - 25%

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/04/17/voting-intention-conservatives-44-labour-23-12-13-

April 2017 - 23%

could have been February? They've removed anything pre June from the index, so went direct via google and couldn't see Februarys

I'm on the ledge but you guys are doing a good job of talking me down.

*considers preparing jelly and ice cream*

Boris Johnson’s government is pessimistic about the chances of securing a #Brexit deal after his Northern Irish allies raised objections to the plans that have been drawn up in talks in Brussels, according to a British official, @TimRoss_1 reports. https://t.co/TWY3PGvbVt

— Nikos Chrysoloras (@nchrysoloras) October 16, 2019

anvil - yeah, sorry, not 'early' 2017 - my bad.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/22/voting-intention-wales-labour-44-conservatives

First line is rather telling!

While these shifts in public opinion could be seen as fairly erratic

Get away.

xp - Well, no, in early 2017 YouGov (after changes to the way they measured the poll which maybe did weigh against Labour) had Labour at 44%. They haven't changed anything since then (afaik).

― Ned Trifle X,

So the shift from 20+% polling to 40+% polling just after the election campaign started was actually more a reflection of the changes to the way YouGov measured their poll?

Apropos of nothing, former ILXoR Yancey Strickler is due on Sky News's All Out Politics at 10:45.

I wonder in basic terms what is *the way* a polling company founded by two tories and disproportionately has the tories ahead in more polls than any other pollsters since 2017, conducts their polling?

if strickler's still union-busting he's bad, if he says my book was the only good thing kickstarter ever funded he's correct (but still bad for union-busting)

beaten to the punch about kickstarter's unionbusting

not cool imo

I don't know, have you seen The Irishman? Bust these unions before they bust your head

union busting
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/business/2019/04/23/john-mcdonnell_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqxAHgvSpW8b5g6-J_2-NZhpa5G601S0VTN8nzablXFgY.JPG?imwidth=450

busting makes me feel bad