the only question worth answering is what the banter heuristic demands
― expedited frictionless convergences (bizarro gazzara), Tuesday, 15 October 2019 15:45 (four years ago) link
We're getting different accounts of what might happen every 5 minutes.
― Michael Oliver of Penge Wins £5 (Tom D.), Tuesday, 15 October 2019 15:46 (four years ago) link
I see theyworkforyou is a slur now
― be goose, do crimes (||||||||), Tuesday, 15 October 2019 16:47 (four years ago) link
do not start me on that fucking discourse
― gyac, Tuesday, 15 October 2019 16:49 (four years ago) link
NEW: Understand civil service chief Sir Mark Sedwill has advised No10 that it would be virtually impossible to hold an election this year any later than 12th Dec. After that practicalities are horrendous - school halls etc booked up for Christmas so no space for polling booths.— Paul Brand (@PaulBrandITV) October 15, 2019
― gyac, Tuesday, 15 October 2019 17:25 (four years ago) link
I was reading they might have to wait till February next year!
― Michael Oliver of Penge Wins £5 (Tom D.), Tuesday, 15 October 2019 17:26 (four years ago) link
Cos of the lack of availability of venues?
― gyac, Tuesday, 15 October 2019 17:27 (four years ago) link
Not sure what the reason was tbh.
― Michael Oliver of Penge Wins £5 (Tom D.), Tuesday, 15 October 2019 17:28 (four years ago) link
we're going to end up with johnson presenting the may deal 2.0 to parliament aren't we?
― Seany's too Dyche to mention (jim in vancouver), Tuesday, 15 October 2019 23:44 (four years ago) link
Then Parliament reject it and he still gets his people v parliament election except with the Brexit Party against him and hence no real hope of winning. Feels like second ref territory.
― stet, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 00:10 (four years ago) link
alternatively, it passes by 1-10 votes the brexit party disappears and we're fucked, not just for this but for the next five to infinity years.
― What a ridiculous clusterfuck of totally uncool jokers (jed_), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 00:19 (four years ago) link
If it does pass in single digits it could be a pledge/delivery made/huge Boris achievement> Election> Tory landslide.
I mean, there's going to be a Tory landslide whatever happens, given that the opposition leader is also a brexiteer, it will just be a bigger one.
― What a ridiculous clusterfuck of totally uncool jokers (jed_), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 00:32 (four years ago) link
On a majority of -43, with the DUP presumably also against? You’d have to be Stephen Kinnock to support it knowing it would be a huge win for the Tories and there aren’t 60 Kinnocks. I mean, a lot depends on what this thing looks like, but I can’t see it being something unifying.
― stet, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 01:07 (four years ago) link
I hope I am wrong. I really do.
― What a ridiculous clusterfuck of totally uncool jokers (jed_), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 01:30 (four years ago) link
I’ve only had to back up a few posts and think I’ve got a grip on where things are at present, so according to my personal rule of “the less Tombot understands it, the better things are going” this was not a good day for y’all
― El Tomboto, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 03:06 (four years ago) link
(when it’s mostly harmless, this thread turns into incomprehensible references to issues and personalities; when it’s bad, the discourse becomes (relatively) clear and to the point) of course it’s never not edifying in some way or I wouldn’t keep coming back
― El Tomboto, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 03:11 (four years ago) link
This argument boils down to getting enraged that women do things without the permission of men and that image touches on all the big ones. Also ties in with the extremely prevalent notion that women get money for basically nothing and that men are just cash machines with absolutely no say in anything.
If it does pass in single digits it could be a pledge/delivery made/huge Boris achievement> Election> Tory landslide. I mean, there's going to be a Tory landslide whatever happens, given that the opposition leader is also a brexiteer, it will just be a bigger one.
― gyac, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 05:32 (four years ago) link
also lol @ me for posting part of a draft post for the masculinity thread in that response, truly the last thing I wanted to happen
― gyac, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 05:35 (four years ago) link
On a majority of -43, with the DUP presumably also against? You’d have to be Stephen Kinnock to support it knowing it would be a huge win for the Tories and there aren’t 60 Kinnocks.
I mean, a lot depends on what this thing looks like, but I can’t see it being something unifying.
There aren't 60 Kinnocks but there are definitely Labour MPs who would vote for it and I don't see those 'Tory rebels' who voted three times for May's deal voting against it - the Gaukes and the Hammonds etc. - so I could see it passing parliament. The Brexit Party is rendered redudndant, the Tories hold an election asasp, win a gigantic majority, lol we're all dead.
― Michael Oliver of Penge Wins £5 (Tom D.), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:00 (four years ago) link
Plus I completely disagree that Boris leaving with a deal fucks over the LDs and not Labour, I'd say the reverse is true.
― Michael Oliver of Penge Wins £5 (Tom D.), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:02 (four years ago) link
Sure it does. What else do the Lib Dems have to offer? Can you name a single non-Brexit policy of theirs?Anyway, not linking to article directly, but you love to see it:
Excl: Big split opens up among Tory Eurosceptics over whether to back Boris’s Brexit deal, as Owen Paterson brands it “absurd” and “unacceptable”. Iain Duncan-Smith also said to have “exploded” at No10 officials.https://t.co/tJoBZ0lk0N— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) October 15, 2019
― gyac, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:04 (four years ago) link
Also can’t remember where I saw but supposedly Labour telling their MPs that anyone voting for the deal gets the whip withdrawn
― gyac, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:05 (four years ago) link
reports of an exploding iain duncan smith are greatly exaggeratedalas
― expedited frictionless convergences (bizarro gazzara), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:07 (four years ago) link
good
― be goose, do crimes (||||||||), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:07 (four years ago) link
I know it's Windmill Jolyon but he's generally good on procedural stuff right?
If the House of Commons were to approve a withdrawal agreement on 19 October, and there was no extension, we would have No Deal on 31 October. Here's why. THREAD.— Jo Maugham QC (@JolyonMaugham) October 13, 2019
I'm guessing in the event of a deal passing Parliament there'd be a small extension or immediately implemented transition period but who knows.
― Matt DC, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:08 (four years ago) link
The election is going to be about Boris Getting Brexit Done and nothing else, the media will make sure of that, if nothing else. The Lib Dems can present themselves as the party that bravely stood up for Remain while Labour dithered and procrastinated and Corbyn was a Brexiteer all along blah blah blah, hoovering up the Remainiac vote. The Labour vote in Leave areas collapses with grateful Leavers flocking to the Tories and disgusted Remainers boycotting Labour and voting Lib Dem. I'm not actually saying this will happen because I don't want to kill myself just yet.
― Michael Oliver of Penge Wins £5 (Tom D.), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:09 (four years ago) link
Oh and this too
One senior minister confirms that a vote on any New Deal *will* be a confidence matter for Eurosceptics.Government currently thinks 3-5 Tory MPs will not support it and will be duly ejected from the party.— Sebastian Payne (@SebastianEPayne) October 15, 2019
― gyac, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:09 (four years ago) link
Think windmill Jolyon probably otm, and did they ever get all those statutory instruments to covert EU law into domestic passed? So to avoid no deal there has to be an extension
― gyac, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:11 (four years ago) link
slightly questionable source
Labour MP just told me that they have been warned, if they vote for a deal, regardless of how good it is for the country, they will not be allowed to stand as Labour MPs again.— Nadine Dorries (@NadineDorries) October 15, 2019
― be goose, do crimes (||||||||), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:15 (four years ago) link
― gyac, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:16 (four years ago) link
grateful Leavers flocking to the Tories
I just don’t think “leave” is as strong a cultural identity as “never tory” in some of these places...
― be goose, do crimes (||||||||), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:16 (four years ago) link
(I am here for ronan burtenshaw Vs emma kennedy)
― be goose, do crimes (||||||||), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:20 (four years ago) link
You mean like when Scots used to brag we never vote Tory? And that all changed after what had happened? Oh that's right, a divisive referendum.
― Michael Oliver of Penge Wins £5 (Tom D.), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:21 (four years ago) link
SAME, she’s so fucking awful
― gyac, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:21 (four years ago) link
I'm extremely sceptical that the deal will pass Parliament but assuming it does then the campaign to rejoin will begin almost immediately. It'll be relatively small at first but the LibDems will cloak themselves in that flag which has the virtue of being more consistent and logical than their current position. They might do alright out of it tbh.
Meanwhile I still wouldn't expect it to translate to a thundering victory for the Tories, Johnson is widely disliked and Labour's domestic policy is likely to be popular. Obviously Corbyn is also widely unpopular but few people dislike them both equally.
I can see the prospect of a second Scottish referendum being weaponised against Labour without necessarily benefiting them in Scotland though.
― Matt DC, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:35 (four years ago) link
when the latest YouGov poll has got them 4 pts ahead that doesn't say tory landslide to me and I bet their internal polling is much grimmer. This is a far right bxp rump version of the conservative party, they don't have a broad enough appeal for a landslide, the One Nation posturing by Boris won't win back voters they've alienated. All imo of course. i think some people exaggerate the potential of the "he's done brexit" bounce when whatever possible deal he gets is guaranteed to piss off people on both sides in the short term, and as already said this will only be the start of further tedious negging in the long term.
― calzino, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:37 (four years ago) link
Can't see how Tories can net gain on their current seat total. I actually want to because I distrust this sense of relative optimism so.
― nashwan, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:46 (four years ago) link
“Billions” to bribe the DUP this time, says FT
― stet, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:49 (four years ago) link
you've got to give it to them, DUP are nuff gangsta!
― calzino, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:53 (four years ago) link
― Matt DC, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:35 (sixteen minutes ago) link
While this is no doubt true, a side effect of Brexit has been the fact that actually English voters dgaf about that anyway (or at least nowhere near as much as portrayed). There's a lot of old assumptions about the electorate (and other electorates) that have been blown up
― anvil, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:56 (four years ago) link
If a deal passes will "Labour leavers" really vote for the Tories? Maybe, the Welsh seem to be heading down that path?
Welsh Westminster voting intention:CON: 29% (+5)LAB: 25% (+3)LDEM: 16% (-)BREX: 14% (-4)PC: 12% (-3)via @YouGov, 10 - 14 OctChgs. w/ Jul— Britain Elects (@britainelects) October 15, 2019
Fucking mystifying.
― Ned Trifle X, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 08:03 (four years ago) link
DUP source says “gaps remain and further work is required”thread title contender obv, but i can’t help interpreting this as “we said £2B, the govt will only give us £1B”
― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 08:04 (four years ago) link
As someone terrible pointed out yesterday, May was 10 points ahead in Wales in April 2017.Better source for the Labour whip:
LOTO's calculation will be that if Labour MPs vote for a Brexit deal without repercussions, then the Lib Dems will run around the country saying Corbyn facilitated Brexit. So Labour MPs won't be allowed to keep the whip if they vote for it. So they won't vote for it.— Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) October 15, 2019
― gyac, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 08:04 (four years ago) link
s someone terrible pointed out yesterday, May was 10 points ahead in Wales in April 2017.
True, but why are the Tories anywhere near this figure in Wales, is my point?
― Ned Trifle X, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 08:10 (four years ago) link
polls are bs
― conrad, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 08:11 (four years ago) link
I guess what I'm really interested in is why those 14% BXP votes go, if Brexit happens? Also LOL PC demanded independence 'cos the Scottish are.
― Ned Trifle X, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 08:12 (four years ago) link
didn't realise that was the Welsh voting intentions YouGov poll i was looking at earlier, was gonna say they usually always put them at least 10 pts ahead and stats have shown they have a bias that stretches credibility.
― calzino, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 08:12 (four years ago) link
Where not why.
xp - Well, no, in early 2017 YouGov (after changes to the way they measured the poll which maybe did weigh against Labour) had Labour at 44%. They haven't changed anything since then (afaik).
― Ned Trifle X, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 08:23 (four years ago) link
/s someone terrible pointed out yesterday, May was 10 points ahead in Wales in April 2017./True, but why are the Tories anywhere near this figure in Wales, is my point?
― gyac, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 08:23 (four years ago) link