PMs change and lol we're all gonna die (but brexit will never end)

i see 'clee' and the walls come tumbling down

hmmmm

Boris Johnson appears to be on the brink of reaching a Brexit deal after making major concessions to EU demands over the Irish border.

A draft treaty could now be published on Wednesday morning, according to senior British and EU sources.

It is understood that the negotiating teams have agreed in principle that there will be a customs border down the Irish Sea. The arrangement was rejected by Theresa May as a deal that no British prime minister could accept.

Johnson will still have to win over parliament – including the Democratic Unionist party and the hardline Tory Brexiters, the European Research Group – on the basis that Northern Ireland will still legally be within the UK’s customs territory.

What are his chances of getting this through parliament?

Once the ERG sell out the DUP, every chance.

cool that we might be getting a deal that theresa may thought was unconscionable, just an incredible feat of dealmaking from boris there

Extremely funny and even more so considering every oráiste north of the border was sending horrible messages to nationalists yesterday saying “Ulster’s British and so are you”.

It's a matter of posture – slouching makes all the difference.

I'll believe all this when I see it, obviously.

the only question worth answering is what the banter heuristic demands

We're getting different accounts of what might happen every 5 minutes.

I see theyworkforyou is a slur now

do not start me on that fucking discourse

NEW: Understand civil service chief Sir Mark Sedwill has advised No10 that it would be virtually impossible to hold an election this year any later than 12th Dec. After that practicalities are horrendous - school halls etc booked up for Christmas so no space for polling booths.

— Paul Brand (@PaulBrandITV) October 15, 2019

I was reading they might have to wait till February next year!

Cos of the lack of availability of venues?

Not sure what the reason was tbh.

we're going to end up with johnson presenting the may deal 2.0 to parliament aren't we?

Then Parliament reject it and he still gets his people v parliament election except with the Brexit Party against him and hence no real hope of winning.

Feels like second ref territory.

alternatively, it passes by 1-10 votes the brexit party disappears and we're fucked, not just for this but for the next five to infinity years.

If it does pass in single digits it could be a pledge/delivery made/huge Boris achievement> Election> Tory landslide.

I mean, there's going to be a Tory landslide whatever happens, given that the opposition leader is also a brexiteer, it will just be a bigger one.

On a majority of -43, with the DUP presumably also against? You’d have to be Stephen Kinnock to support it knowing it would be a huge win for the Tories and there aren’t 60 Kinnocks.

I mean, a lot depends on what this thing looks like, but I can’t see it being something unifying.

I hope I am wrong. I really do.

I’ve only had to back up a few posts and think I’ve got a grip on where things are at present, so according to my personal rule of “the less Tombot understands it, the better things are going” this was not a good day for y’all

(when it’s mostly harmless, this thread turns into incomprehensible references to issues and personalities; when it’s bad, the discourse becomes (relatively) clear and to the point) of course it’s never not edifying in some way or I wouldn’t keep coming back

This argument boils down to getting enraged that women do things without the permission of men and that image touches on all the big ones. Also ties in with the extremely prevalent notion that women get money for basically nothing and that men are just cash machines with absolutely no say in anything.

If it does pass in single digits it could be a pledge/delivery made/huge Boris achievement> Election> Tory landslide.

I mean, there's going to be a Tory landslide whatever happens, given that the opposition leader is also a brexiteer, it will just be a bigger one.

also lol @ me for posting part of a draft post for the masculinity thread in that response, truly the last thing I wanted to happen

On a majority of -43, with the DUP presumably also against? You’d have to be Stephen Kinnock to support it knowing it would be a huge win for the Tories and there aren’t 60 Kinnocks.

I mean, a lot depends on what this thing looks like, but I can’t see it being something unifying.

There aren't 60 Kinnocks but there are definitely Labour MPs who would vote for it and I don't see those 'Tory rebels' who voted three times for May's deal voting against it - the Gaukes and the Hammonds etc. - so I could see it passing parliament. The Brexit Party is rendered redudndant, the Tories hold an election asasp, win a gigantic majority, lol we're all dead.

Plus I completely disagree that Boris leaving with a deal fucks over the LDs and not Labour, I'd say the reverse is true.

Sure it does. What else do the Lib Dems have to offer? Can you name a single non-Brexit policy of theirs?

Anyway, not linking to article directly, but you love to see it:

Excl: Big split opens up among Tory Eurosceptics over whether to back Boris’s Brexit deal, as Owen Paterson brands it “absurd” and “unacceptable”. Iain Duncan-Smith also said to have “exploded” at No10 officials.https://t.co/tJoBZ0lk0N

— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) October 15, 2019

Also can’t remember where I saw but supposedly Labour telling their MPs that anyone voting for the deal gets the whip withdrawn

reports of an exploding iain duncan smith are greatly exaggerated

alas

good

I know it's Windmill Jolyon but he's generally good on procedural stuff right?

If the House of Commons were to approve a withdrawal agreement on 19 October, and there was no extension, we would have No Deal on 31 October. Here's why. THREAD.

— Jo Maugham QC (@JolyonMaugham) October 13, 2019

I'm guessing in the event of a deal passing Parliament there'd be a small extension or immediately implemented transition period but who knows.

The election is going to be about Boris Getting Brexit Done and nothing else, the media will make sure of that, if nothing else. The Lib Dems can present themselves as the party that bravely stood up for Remain while Labour dithered and procrastinated and Corbyn was a Brexiteer all along blah blah blah, hoovering up the Remainiac vote. The Labour vote in Leave areas collapses with grateful Leavers flocking to the Tories and disgusted Remainers boycotting Labour and voting Lib Dem. I'm not actually saying this will happen because I don't want to kill myself just yet.

Oh and this too

One senior minister confirms that a vote on any New Deal *will* be a confidence matter for Eurosceptics.

Government currently thinks 3-5 Tory MPs will not support it and will be duly ejected from the party.

— Sebastian Payne (@SebastianEPayne) October 15, 2019

Think windmill Jolyon probably otm, and did they ever get all those statutory instruments to covert EU law into domestic passed? So to avoid no deal there has to be an extension

slightly questionable source

Labour MP just told me that they have been warned, if they vote for a deal, regardless of how good it is for the country, they will not be allowed to stand as Labour MPs again.

— Nadine Dorries (@NadineDorries) October 15, 2019

The election is going to be about Boris Getting Brexit Done and nothing else, the media will make sure of that, if nothing else. The Lib Dems can present themselves as the party that bravely stood up for Remain while Labour dithered and procrastinated and Corbyn was a Brexiteer all along blah blah blah, hoovering up the Remainiac vote. The Labour vote in Leave areas collapses with grateful Leavers flocking to the Tories and disgusted Remainers boycotting Labour and voting Lib Dem. I'm not actually saying this will happen because I don't want to kill myself just yet.

grateful Leavers flocking to the Tories

I just don’t think “leave” is as strong a cultural identity as “never tory” in some of these places...

(I am here for ronan burtenshaw Vs emma kennedy)

You mean like when Scots used to brag we never vote Tory? And that all changed after what had happened? Oh that's right, a divisive referendum.

SAME, she’s so fucking awful

I'm extremely sceptical that the deal will pass Parliament but assuming it does then the campaign to rejoin will begin almost immediately. It'll be relatively small at first but the LibDems will cloak themselves in that flag which has the virtue of being more consistent and logical than their current position. They might do alright out of it tbh.

Meanwhile I still wouldn't expect it to translate to a thundering victory for the Tories, Johnson is widely disliked and Labour's domestic policy is likely to be popular. Obviously Corbyn is also widely unpopular but few people dislike them both equally.

I can see the prospect of a second Scottish referendum being weaponised against Labour without necessarily benefiting them in Scotland though.

when the latest YouGov poll has got them 4 pts ahead that doesn't say tory landslide to me and I bet their internal polling is much grimmer. This is a far right bxp rump version of the conservative party, they don't have a broad enough appeal for a landslide, the One Nation posturing by Boris won't win back voters they've alienated. All imo of course. i think some people exaggerate the potential of the "he's done brexit" bounce when whatever possible deal he gets is guaranteed to piss off people on both sides in the short term, and as already said this will only be the start of further tedious negging in the long term.

Can't see how Tories can net gain on their current seat total. I actually want to because I distrust this sense of relative optimism so.

“Billions” to bribe the DUP this time, says FT

you've got to give it to them, DUP are nuff gangsta!

I can see the prospect of a second Scottish referendum being weaponised against Labour without necessarily benefiting them in Scotland though.

― Matt DC, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:35 (sixteen minutes ago) link

While this is no doubt true, a side effect of Brexit has been the fact that actually English voters dgaf about that anyway (or at least nowhere near as much as portrayed). There's a lot of old assumptions about the electorate (and other electorates) that have been blown up

If a deal passes will "Labour leavers" really vote for the Tories? Maybe, the Welsh seem to be heading down that path?

Welsh Westminster voting intention:

CON: 29% (+5)
LAB: 25% (+3)
LDEM: 16% (-)
BREX: 14% (-4)
PC: 12% (-3)

via @YouGov, 10 - 14 Oct
Chgs. w/ Jul

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) October 15, 2019

Fucking mystifying.

DUP source says “gaps remain and further work is required”

thread title contender obv, but i can’t help interpreting this as “we said £2B, the govt will only give us £1B”