Open for Business: Canadian Politics 2019

idk about phonebanking tho

meanwhile

Federal Election Polling:

CPC: 31% (-3)
LPC: 29% (-3)
NDP: 19% (+5)
GPC: 10% (-1)
BQ: 7% (+2)
PPC: 3% (-)

Campaign Research / October 10, 2019 / n=4037 / MOE 1.5 / Online

(% chg w Oct 2nd)

— Polling Canada (@CanadianPolling) October 12, 2019

I get frustrated by how many people don't realize that voting Trudeau to stop the CPC only could work in...70 ridings? It's probably a bad strategy anywhere with a NDP incumbent, for example. And there are another 80 ridings that will go Conservative no matter what

+ esp in the Prairies, you can get Tory/NDP contests

(Votewell agrees with symsymsym re my riding, ha.)

CBC Poll tracker now has 51% chance of CPC winning the most seats (8% chance of majority): https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

lots of Tory/NDP races in BC too, where a vote for the LIbs helps scheer

that votewell seems good except that it says to vote liberal in jagmeet singh's riding

Having to vote by mail puts a damper on my amateurish strategizing.

Skewed public perceptions of the nature of immigration to Canada; fake news a potential suspect: https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5316934?fbclid=IwAR2zCGgyyFvQ5W1NXaGlp6uRVAoXBqVkc3CowIPSVqDDeWCDN3LypQASSv8

although interestingly:

Despite the misconceptions found in the poll, the findings also suggested that a majority of respondents are fine with present levels of immigration.

Grenier's CBC Poll Tracker has Liberals back ahead in the seat projections and NDP (and Bloc:( ) with consistent upward momentum.

Seat projections

LIB 141
CON 134
BQ 33
NDP 25
GRN 4
PPC 1

16% Probability of the Liberals winning a majority
38% Probability of the Liberals winning the most seats but not a majority
38% Probability of the Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority
6% Probability of the Conservatives winning a majority

Whatever one thinks of this in principle, there is a lot (beyond health care coverage plans) that could be done to give the disabled assistance with living with dignity, which is a right that imo should be given at least as much priority.

Article from a couple of weeks on this, about two disabled Quebecers who did not get air time in the debates: https://beta.ctvnews.ca/national/health/2019/10/1/1_4619767.html

Ontario may be no better than this after four years of Ford.

Universal pharmacare & dentacare.

And we’re going to tax the multi-millionaires & billionaires to pay for it. #elxn43

— Jagmeet Singh (@theJagmeetSingh) October 15, 2019

Swinging big and broad, you love to see it.

Appreciate the poll tracker...looks like the NDP has a decent chance here in Sarnia-Lambton, so that's convenient.

Oh,and the election is on my birthday.

This just in.

CPC candidate in PEI states, "I don't want to share my ideas right now. Not until I get elected. Because they're good ideas. But...in case they're not good ideas, I still want to get elected."

I can not make *this* kind of thing up.#PEIhttps://t.co/JxH5JfG46H

— Barney Panofsky's Best Intentions (@mynamesnotgordy) October 15, 2019

jagmeet seems to be building a bit of momentum on the campaign trail, hopefully this election won't be as disastrous for the ndp as had been forecasted.

otoh the - apparently remote - chance of a conservative majority government is really stressing me the fuck out

Same.

I think I’m warming up to Jagmeet and I think it’s worth remembering it took some elections for Layton to get his breakthrough.

There's a chance of it every election, and there would be even if every liberal/left party amalgamated. It doesn't seem TOO high this time but it's definitely not impossible.

Singh and Blanchet did well in the debates. Singh seems to have really come into his own as leader.xp

I'm still expecting QC xenophobes to fuck things up pretty bad but I would love to be pleasantly surprised.

(Not that Quebec has a monopoly on those or anything)

Montreal might surprise us, ROQ it’s going to be ugly.

What would be a surprising result for Montreal? More NDP seats? A lot of Liberal votes is what I would expect.

I guess what would come as a surprise in Montreal is if current NDP ridings kept the Liberals and the Bloc at bay.

Yeah i’m thinking 3 seats instead of just one.

Have you settled on a vote, Sund4r? I don't have a big preference between Green and NDP right now, and it won't make a difference either way, but I'm thinking that an NDP vote will do more to keep the riding competitive.

I actually do think we could flip back to NDP with their surge, and that is almost def how I'm voting. I'm overall OK with Trudeau as PM but would hope for NDP influence in a minority/coalition situation. I also think our NDP candidate is more impressive than the Green one and Singh is much better in French than May, which counts for something wrt national leaders.

that CPC PEI video above is stunning.

Record numbers at advance polls. It's cool they opened so long. Fri-Mon, 12 hours a day

["I voted" sticker]

I'm cool with advanced polling and am 100% for online polling but there is a communal event aspect I enjoy going to the polls on the election day.

that VIP treatment tho

that CPC PEI video above is stunning.

Wow, just watched it.

Obama makes an endorsement:

I was proud to work with Justin Trudeau as President. He's a hard-working, effective leader who takes on big issues like climate change. The world needs his progressive leadership now, and I hope our neighbors to the north support him for another term.

— Barack Obama (@BarackObama) October 16, 2019

omg lol

OPPO had a good interview with Andrew Leach about Trudeau's environmental record (and the other candidates proposals) and I suggest it to everyone.

xp
smh, just like Obama to back a foreigner over an American citizen

Does this cover most of what Leach had to say, VHS?: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/road-ahead-liberal-party-climate-plan-andrew-leach-1.5295477

Only just saw this, from Feb - our forests are actually a net producer of CO2 bc of the number of forest fires and insect infestations at this point: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/canada-forests-carbon-sink-or-source-1.5011490

Sheer gall from Ford - after putting forth legislation to cap public sector wage increases at 1% for the next three years, deputy ministers' minimum salaries go up by 14%: https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5322815?__twitter_impression=true#

It covers way more about liberals but he had stuff to say about other parties’ platforms that is interesting. I like that he can both command and criticize a party on the subject.

Fuck:

https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/elections-2019/rien-ne-va-plus-pour-steven-guilbeault-selon-un-sondage-mainstreet-80b678febcfe364592e4e465bde72624

tabarnak

Ce sondage a été réalisé par appels automatisés le 16 octobre dernier auprès de 628 électeurs de Laurier-Sainte-Marie. Un échantillon de cette taille s’accompagne d’une marge d’erreur de ± 3,9 % 19 fois sur 20.

I can see why you're worried but, if it helps, the gap is totally within the margin of error and the sample size isn't huge. (Mainstreet, c'est de la merde.)

Just more reason to vote!

I already voted (utile, comme on dit).

At least a DOZEN times!

https://thinkpol.ca/2019/10/18/andrew-scheer-conservatives-lied-canadians-least-dozen-times-campaign/

Fuck the Conservatives, but this is hilariously wholesome when set against most other political ecosystems.

This is a p good summary of how minority Parliaments work and why Scheer is full of it: https://globalnews.ca/news/6054421/experts-scheer-claims-forming-government/?fbclid=IwAR2sn2eat5jN3aHhB6qWKl-l82Q_--VRGA-iN32zhIdUUJX6Rus__iE1saQ

This story is odd: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/project-cactus-maxime-bernier-1.5327555?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar

.@glen_mcgregor - You say you want to be transparent, I find it astounding that you can't answer a basic question about whether you hired (Warren Kinsella) or not. What is the great privacy or secrecy about this?

Here is Scheer's answer #cdnpoli #elxn43

More @ctvnews pic.twitter.com/Sm8JKaFsmo

— Mackenzie Gray (@Gray_Mackenzie) October 19, 2019

extremely here for Jagmania

Best Prime Minister Choice:

Trudeau: 28% (-3)
Scheer: 24% (-5)
Singh: 24% (+11)
May: 8% (-1)

Don't Know: 16% (-2)

Forum Research / Oct 16, 2019 / n=1028 / IVR

(% chg w Oct 2)

— Polling Canada (@CanadianPolling) October 18, 2019

Nice to see Jagmeet catering to the ILM crowd by using Differentology as his entrance song.

went to his rally yesterday afternoon, good to know his music is ILM-approved

ILM has officially endorsed Jagmeet Singh, calling his music choices "otm" (?).

Jagmeet came to my workplace yesterday and really impressed us all. He did what to me is a Jonathan Richman entrance - showing up on his own at the back and taking ages greeting people personally before finally reaching the mic. He did some quite good media bits, and then spent a long time chatting and walking around. Unlike John Horgan who blasts in at 90 miles an hour beaming from ear to ear and trying his damnedest to throw off energy and friendliness, delivers a fire & brimstone speech and back on the bus in under 5 mins. With Jagmeet it doesn't feel like a performance.

Jagmeet Singh: is this guy a class fucking act or what?

omg how did I miss the Differentology thing? I am so sad I am not a citizen yet

I drove among the luxury homes on Island Park today and began to get more of a sense of McKenna's base of support. Almost all Liberal signs there, unlike Centretown/Glebe/Old Ottawa S, where you see at least as much NDP and Green.