Or, if those specific issues are too provincial in scope, what is the federal plan to do something? (There was some discussion of long-term care in the first French debate tbf.) Why, when Singh's response to virtually anything else is "the root of this problem is inequality and the way Lib and Con governments only help their friends at the top", did he not have something to say about the social conditions that sometimes lead the disabled to that point of desperation?
― All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Saturday, 12 October 2019 23:40 (four years ago) link
I wonder how much the Liberals have benefitted from the emergence of "strategic voting" as a concept that's increasingly discussed openly
There was an active nationwide strategic voting campaign in 2015; seems to be less of that this time. It's hard to say, though: the Liberals dominated the country for most of the 20th century as well.
― All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Saturday, 12 October 2019 23:45 (four years ago) link
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/scheer-singh-voters-election-pitch-1.5319507
NDP "is now polling solidly in third, have edged away from a tight race with the Greens in recent days."
Liberals opening campaigning for our strategic votes. "Trudeau targets NDP, says 'only way to stop Conservative cuts' is to vote Liberal". They benefit massively. When Trudeau was promising election reform last time around, the NDP had about 3 times the seats of the Liberals.
― maffew12, Saturday, 12 October 2019 23:47 (four years ago) link
oops my latter quote is not exactly about strategic voting but it is a theme of this article.
A vote split between progressive left parties — New Democrats, Liberals and Greens — could be a factor in Canadian elections, and the NDP is trying not to fall victim to strategic voting at this time. "I believe people should never be voting out of fear," Singh said later in the day.
ah yes the progressive left Liberals
― maffew12, Saturday, 12 October 2019 23:58 (four years ago) link
riding polls are really unreliable, main street research in particular has had some pretty giant misses in the last few years. I think an aggregator like 338 does as well as anyone could to predict each riding, but you can't poll a country with six parties in 338 different races with any degree of accuracy, especially because polling can't predict turnout among demographic groups, and will often miss a last week surge or a strategic decision (away from mulcair, and to trudeau, away from ignatieff and to layton or harper...)
― Jeff Bathos (symsymsym), Sunday, 13 October 2019 00:00 (four years ago) link
anyway vote for whoever you like most in Ottawa Centre, your vote almost definitely won't matter anyway
― Jeff Bathos (symsymsym), Sunday, 13 October 2019 00:01 (four years ago) link
https://globalnews.ca/news/3816393/mainstreet-research-apologizes-for-catastrophic-polling-failure-in-2017-calgary-election/
https://www.burnabynow.com/opinion/blogs/the-pollster-that-got-the-nanaimo-byelection-wrong-says-the-bc-ndp-is-leading-1.23769875
― Jeff Bathos (symsymsym), Sunday, 13 October 2019 00:02 (four years ago) link
There was an active nationwide strategic voting campaign in 2015; seems to be less of that this time.
fwiw I've seen a few viral tweets promoting it as a needed strategy to keep the Cons out
― Simon H., Sunday, 13 October 2019 00:06 (four years ago) link
I get frustrated by how many people don't realize that voting Trudeau to stop the CPC only could work in...70 ridings? It's probably a bad strategy anywhere with a NDP incumbent, for example. And there are another 80 ridings that will go Conservative no matter what
― Jeff Bathos (symsymsym), Sunday, 13 October 2019 00:12 (four years ago) link
Is there anything like the Leadnow (iirc?) campaign from last time where they 'calculated' the best candidate to beat the Tories in any winnable riding and phonebanked everyone to vote for that candidate? That's the kind of thing I was referring to.
― All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Sunday, 13 October 2019 00:43 (four years ago) link
I have seen this once or twice
https://votewell.ca/
― Simon H., Sunday, 13 October 2019 01:07 (four years ago) link
idk about phonebanking tho
meanwhile
Federal Election Polling:CPC: 31% (-3)LPC: 29% (-3)NDP: 19% (+5)GPC: 10% (-1)BQ: 7% (+2)PPC: 3% (-)Campaign Research / October 10, 2019 / n=4037 / MOE 1.5 / Online (% chg w Oct 2nd)— Polling Canada (@CanadianPolling) October 12, 2019
― Simon H., Sunday, 13 October 2019 01:16 (four years ago) link
+ esp in the Prairies, you can get Tory/NDP contests
(Votewell agrees with symsymsym re my riding, ha.)
― All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Sunday, 13 October 2019 03:19 (four years ago) link
CBC Poll tracker now has 51% chance of CPC winning the most seats (8% chance of majority): https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/
― All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Sunday, 13 October 2019 03:24 (four years ago) link
lots of Tory/NDP races in BC too, where a vote for the LIbs helps scheer
― Jeff Bathos (symsymsym), Sunday, 13 October 2019 05:37 (four years ago) link
that votewell seems good except that it says to vote liberal in jagmeet singh's riding
― Jeff Bathos (symsymsym), Sunday, 13 October 2019 06:42 (four years ago) link
Having to vote by mail puts a damper on my amateurish strategizing.
― pomenitul, Sunday, 13 October 2019 09:43 (four years ago) link
Skewed public perceptions of the nature of immigration to Canada; fake news a potential suspect: https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5316934?fbclid=IwAR2zCGgyyFvQ5W1NXaGlp6uRVAoXBqVkc3CowIPSVqDDeWCDN3LypQASSv8
although interestingly:
Despite the misconceptions found in the poll, the findings also suggested that a majority of respondents are fine with present levels of immigration.
― All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Monday, 14 October 2019 00:27 (four years ago) link
Grenier's CBC Poll Tracker has Liberals back ahead in the seat projections and NDP (and Bloc:( ) with consistent upward momentum.
Seat projections LIB 141CON 134BQ 33NDP 25GRN 4PPC 116% Probability of the Liberals winning a majority 38% Probability of the Liberals winning the most seats but not a majority 38% Probability of the Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority6% Probability of the Conservatives winning a majority
LIB 141CON 134BQ 33NDP 25GRN 4PPC 1
16% Probability of the Liberals winning a majority 38% Probability of the Liberals winning the most seats but not a majority 38% Probability of the Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority6% Probability of the Conservatives winning a majority
― All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Monday, 14 October 2019 02:02 (four years ago) link
Whatever one thinks of this in principle, there is a lot (beyond health care coverage plans) that could be done to give the disabled assistance with living with dignity, which is a right that imo should be given at least as much priority.
Article from a couple of weeks on this, about two disabled Quebecers who did not get air time in the debates: https://beta.ctvnews.ca/national/health/2019/10/1/1_4619767.html
Ontario may be no better than this after four years of Ford.
― All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Monday, 14 October 2019 14:36 (four years ago) link
Universal pharmacare & dentacare.And we’re going to tax the multi-millionaires & billionaires to pay for it. #elxn43— Jagmeet Singh (@theJagmeetSingh) October 15, 2019
Swinging big and broad, you love to see it.
― Simon H., Tuesday, 15 October 2019 18:04 (four years ago) link
Appreciate the poll tracker...looks like the NDP has a decent chance here in Sarnia-Lambton, so that's convenient.
Oh,and the election is on my birthday.
― Scape: Goat-fired like a dog! (Myonga Vön Bontee), Tuesday, 15 October 2019 18:20 (four years ago) link
This just in.CPC candidate in PEI states, "I don't want to share my ideas right now. Not until I get elected. Because they're good ideas. But...in case they're not good ideas, I still want to get elected."I can not make *this* kind of thing up.#PEIhttps://t.co/JxH5JfG46H— Barney Panofsky's Best Intentions (@mynamesnotgordy) October 15, 2019
― Simon H., Tuesday, 15 October 2019 19:22 (four years ago) link
jagmeet seems to be building a bit of momentum on the campaign trail, hopefully this election won't be as disastrous for the ndp as had been forecasted.
otoh the - apparently remote - chance of a conservative majority government is really stressing me the fuck out
― Seany's too Dyche to mention (jim in vancouver), Tuesday, 15 October 2019 19:28 (four years ago) link
Same.
I think I’m warming up to Jagmeet and I think it’s worth remembering it took some elections for Layton to get his breakthrough.
― Van Horn Street, Tuesday, 15 October 2019 19:43 (four years ago) link
There's a chance of it every election, and there would be even if every liberal/left party amalgamated. It doesn't seem TOO high this time but it's definitely not impossible.
Singh and Blanchet did well in the debates. Singh seems to have really come into his own as leader.xp
― All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Tuesday, 15 October 2019 19:47 (four years ago) link
I'm still expecting QC xenophobes to fuck things up pretty bad but I would love to be pleasantly surprised.
― Simon H., Tuesday, 15 October 2019 19:49 (four years ago) link
(Not that Quebec has a monopoly on those or anything)
― Simon H., Tuesday, 15 October 2019 19:50 (four years ago) link
Montreal might surprise us, ROQ it’s going to be ugly.
― Van Horn Street, Tuesday, 15 October 2019 20:09 (four years ago) link
What would be a surprising result for Montreal? More NDP seats? A lot of Liberal votes is what I would expect.
― All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Tuesday, 15 October 2019 21:31 (four years ago) link
I guess what would come as a surprise in Montreal is if current NDP ridings kept the Liberals and the Bloc at bay.
― pomenitul, Tuesday, 15 October 2019 22:13 (four years ago) link
Yeah i’m thinking 3 seats instead of just one.
― Van Horn Street, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 15:35 (four years ago) link
Have you settled on a vote, Sund4r? I don't have a big preference between Green and NDP right now, and it won't make a difference either way, but I'm thinking that an NDP vote will do more to keep the riding competitive.
― jmm, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 16:00 (four years ago) link
I actually do think we could flip back to NDP with their surge, and that is almost def how I'm voting. I'm overall OK with Trudeau as PM but would hope for NDP influence in a minority/coalition situation. I also think our NDP candidate is more impressive than the Green one and Singh is much better in French than May, which counts for something wrt national leaders.
― All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 17:00 (four years ago) link
that CPC PEI video above is stunning.Record numbers at advance polls. It's cool they opened so long. Fri-Mon, 12 hours a day["I voted" sticker]
― maffew12, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 19:21 (four years ago) link
I'm cool with advanced polling and am 100% for online polling but there is a communal event aspect I enjoy going to the polls on the election day.
― Van Horn Street, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 19:40 (four years ago) link
that VIP treatment tho
― maffew12, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 19:43 (four years ago) link
that CPC PEI video above is stunning.
Wow, just watched it.
― All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 19:56 (four years ago) link
Obama makes an endorsement:
I was proud to work with Justin Trudeau as President. He's a hard-working, effective leader who takes on big issues like climate change. The world needs his progressive leadership now, and I hope our neighbors to the north support him for another term.— Barack Obama (@BarackObama) October 16, 2019
― All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 19:57 (four years ago) link
omg lol
― maffew12, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 20:15 (four years ago) link
OPPO had a good interview with Andrew Leach about Trudeau's environmental record (and the other candidates proposals) and I suggest it to everyone.
― Van Horn Street, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 20:22 (four years ago) link
xpsmh, just like Obama to back a foreigner over an American citizen
― rob, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 20:51 (four years ago) link
Does this cover most of what Leach had to say, VHS?: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/road-ahead-liberal-party-climate-plan-andrew-leach-1.5295477
Only just saw this, from Feb - our forests are actually a net producer of CO2 bc of the number of forest fires and insect infestations at this point: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/canada-forests-carbon-sink-or-source-1.5011490
Sheer gall from Ford - after putting forth legislation to cap public sector wage increases at 1% for the next three years, deputy ministers' minimum salaries go up by 14%: https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5322815?__twitter_impression=true#
― All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Thursday, 17 October 2019 02:41 (four years ago) link
It covers way more about liberals but he had stuff to say about other parties’ platforms that is interesting. I like that he can both command and criticize a party on the subject.
― Van Horn Street, Thursday, 17 October 2019 03:04 (four years ago) link
Fuck:
https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/elections-2019/rien-ne-va-plus-pour-steven-guilbeault-selon-un-sondage-mainstreet-80b678febcfe364592e4e465bde72624
― pomenitul, Saturday, 19 October 2019 11:23 (four years ago) link
tabarnak
― maffew12, Saturday, 19 October 2019 11:48 (four years ago) link
Ce sondage a été réalisé par appels automatisés le 16 octobre dernier auprès de 628 électeurs de Laurier-Sainte-Marie. Un échantillon de cette taille s’accompagne d’une marge d’erreur de ± 3,9 % 19 fois sur 20.
I can see why you're worried but, if it helps, the gap is totally within the margin of error and the sample size isn't huge. (Mainstreet, c'est de la merde.)
Just more reason to vote!
― All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Saturday, 19 October 2019 13:50 (four years ago) link
I already voted (utile, comme on dit).
― pomenitul, Saturday, 19 October 2019 13:54 (four years ago) link
At least a DOZEN times!
https://thinkpol.ca/2019/10/18/andrew-scheer-conservatives-lied-canadians-least-dozen-times-campaign/
Fuck the Conservatives, but this is hilariously wholesome when set against most other political ecosystems.
― pomenitul, Saturday, 19 October 2019 19:13 (four years ago) link