Open for Business: Canadian Politics 2019

Hm, looking at the other ridings on that page, that seems to be the trend everywhere. NDP way down, Green way up.

Tbf, a lot has happened since Sept 15. I'm p sure I was planning to vote Green then too. I did start to warm to Singh over May in the last few debates.

I wonder how much the Liberals have benefitted from the emergence of "strategic voting" as a concept that's increasingly discussed openly

To post a potentially controversial opinion concerning this moment that "struck an emotional chord with the leaders, viewers,... and the moderator"): https://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/elargir-aide-mourir-question-touchante-lise-pigeon_qc_5d9fdce7e4b087efdbaba264

(Lise Pigeon, a 63yo woman in a wheelchair with MS and rheumatoid arthritis who experiences pain and incontinence, asked the party leaders at the last French debate about whether they would expand the 'right to die with dignity' in response to the recent Baudoin decision in the QC Superior Court; p much everyone said yes except Scheer who was vague; Trudeau committed to a 6mo timeline but did mention the need to balance individual freedom with protection for the most vulnerable.)

It's upsetting to our household that m/l the only instance of visibility and affirmation given to a disabled person throughout this campaign came when someone asked about the 'right' to get assistance with dying (a position that is far from a matter of consensus among the disabled). Whatever one thinks of this in principle, there is a lot (beyond health care coverage plans) that could be done to give the disabled assistance with living with dignity, which is a right that imo should be given at least as much priority. Trudeau spent a lot of time in the debates on provincial issues and the problems with Conservative Premiers in the country and what the feds would do in response to various provincial policies. Why no mention of Ford's brazen dismantling of Ontario's hitherto excellent system of home care for the elderly and disabled, something that has been making it possible for many people to live independent lives in their own homes?: https://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/ontario-begins-dismantling-local-health-integration-system . Or the $1B in cuts to both welfare and disability support?: http://incomesecurity.org/public-education/ontario-budget-2019-announces-1-billion-in-ow-and-odsp-cuts/ . Or the proposed redefinition of "disability" when it comes to ODSP to align with 'CPP guidelines' (meaning that one would have to be unable to ever work again in order to quality)?

Or, if those specific issues are too provincial in scope, what is the federal plan to do something? (There was some discussion of long-term care in the first French debate tbf.) Why, when Singh's response to virtually anything else is "the root of this problem is inequality and the way Lib and Con governments only help their friends at the top", did he not have something to say about the social conditions that sometimes lead the disabled to that point of desperation?

I wonder how much the Liberals have benefitted from the emergence of "strategic voting" as a concept that's increasingly discussed openly

There was an active nationwide strategic voting campaign in 2015; seems to be less of that this time. It's hard to say, though: the Liberals dominated the country for most of the 20th century as well.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/scheer-singh-voters-election-pitch-1.5319507

NDP "is now polling solidly in third, have edged away from a tight race with the Greens in recent days."

Liberals opening campaigning for our strategic votes. "Trudeau targets NDP, says 'only way to stop Conservative cuts' is to vote Liberal". They benefit massively. When Trudeau was promising election reform last time around, the NDP had about 3 times the seats of the Liberals.

oops my latter quote is not exactly about strategic voting but it is a theme of this article.

A vote split between progressive left parties — New Democrats, Liberals and Greens — could be a factor in Canadian elections, and the NDP is trying not to fall victim to strategic voting at this time. "I believe people should never be voting out of fear," Singh said later in the day.

ah yes the progressive left Liberals

riding polls are really unreliable, main street research in particular has had some pretty giant misses in the last few years. I think an aggregator like 338 does as well as anyone could to predict each riding, but you can't poll a country with six parties in 338 different races with any degree of accuracy, especially because polling can't predict turnout among demographic groups, and will often miss a last week surge or a strategic decision (away from mulcair, and to trudeau, away from ignatieff and to layton or harper...)

anyway vote for whoever you like most in Ottawa Centre, your vote almost definitely won't matter anyway

https://globalnews.ca/news/3816393/mainstreet-research-apologizes-for-catastrophic-polling-failure-in-2017-calgary-election/

https://www.burnabynow.com/opinion/blogs/the-pollster-that-got-the-nanaimo-byelection-wrong-says-the-bc-ndp-is-leading-1.23769875

There was an active nationwide strategic voting campaign in 2015; seems to be less of that this time.

fwiw I've seen a few viral tweets promoting it as a needed strategy to keep the Cons out

I get frustrated by how many people don't realize that voting Trudeau to stop the CPC only could work in...70 ridings? It's probably a bad strategy anywhere with a NDP incumbent, for example. And there are another 80 ridings that will go Conservative no matter what

fwiw I've seen a few viral tweets promoting it as a needed strategy to keep the Cons out

Is there anything like the Leadnow (iirc?) campaign from last time where they 'calculated' the best candidate to beat the Tories in any winnable riding and phonebanked everyone to vote for that candidate? That's the kind of thing I was referring to.

I have seen this once or twice

https://votewell.ca/

idk about phonebanking tho

meanwhile

Federal Election Polling:

CPC: 31% (-3)
LPC: 29% (-3)
NDP: 19% (+5)
GPC: 10% (-1)
BQ: 7% (+2)
PPC: 3% (-)

Campaign Research / October 10, 2019 / n=4037 / MOE 1.5 / Online

(% chg w Oct 2nd)

— Polling Canada (@CanadianPolling) October 12, 2019

I get frustrated by how many people don't realize that voting Trudeau to stop the CPC only could work in...70 ridings? It's probably a bad strategy anywhere with a NDP incumbent, for example. And there are another 80 ridings that will go Conservative no matter what

+ esp in the Prairies, you can get Tory/NDP contests

(Votewell agrees with symsymsym re my riding, ha.)

CBC Poll tracker now has 51% chance of CPC winning the most seats (8% chance of majority): https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

lots of Tory/NDP races in BC too, where a vote for the LIbs helps scheer

that votewell seems good except that it says to vote liberal in jagmeet singh's riding

Having to vote by mail puts a damper on my amateurish strategizing.

Skewed public perceptions of the nature of immigration to Canada; fake news a potential suspect: https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5316934?fbclid=IwAR2zCGgyyFvQ5W1NXaGlp6uRVAoXBqVkc3CowIPSVqDDeWCDN3LypQASSv8

although interestingly:

Despite the misconceptions found in the poll, the findings also suggested that a majority of respondents are fine with present levels of immigration.

Grenier's CBC Poll Tracker has Liberals back ahead in the seat projections and NDP (and Bloc:( ) with consistent upward momentum.

Seat projections

LIB 141
CON 134
BQ 33
NDP 25
GRN 4
PPC 1

16% Probability of the Liberals winning a majority
38% Probability of the Liberals winning the most seats but not a majority
38% Probability of the Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority
6% Probability of the Conservatives winning a majority

Whatever one thinks of this in principle, there is a lot (beyond health care coverage plans) that could be done to give the disabled assistance with living with dignity, which is a right that imo should be given at least as much priority.

Article from a couple of weeks on this, about two disabled Quebecers who did not get air time in the debates: https://beta.ctvnews.ca/national/health/2019/10/1/1_4619767.html

Ontario may be no better than this after four years of Ford.

Universal pharmacare & dentacare.

And we’re going to tax the multi-millionaires & billionaires to pay for it. #elxn43

— Jagmeet Singh (@theJagmeetSingh) October 15, 2019

Swinging big and broad, you love to see it.

Appreciate the poll tracker...looks like the NDP has a decent chance here in Sarnia-Lambton, so that's convenient.

Oh,and the election is on my birthday.

This just in.

CPC candidate in PEI states, "I don't want to share my ideas right now. Not until I get elected. Because they're good ideas. But...in case they're not good ideas, I still want to get elected."

I can not make *this* kind of thing up.#PEIhttps://t.co/JxH5JfG46H

— Barney Panofsky's Best Intentions (@mynamesnotgordy) October 15, 2019

jagmeet seems to be building a bit of momentum on the campaign trail, hopefully this election won't be as disastrous for the ndp as had been forecasted.

otoh the - apparently remote - chance of a conservative majority government is really stressing me the fuck out

Same.

I think I’m warming up to Jagmeet and I think it’s worth remembering it took some elections for Layton to get his breakthrough.

There's a chance of it every election, and there would be even if every liberal/left party amalgamated. It doesn't seem TOO high this time but it's definitely not impossible.

Singh and Blanchet did well in the debates. Singh seems to have really come into his own as leader.xp

I'm still expecting QC xenophobes to fuck things up pretty bad but I would love to be pleasantly surprised.

(Not that Quebec has a monopoly on those or anything)

Montreal might surprise us, ROQ it’s going to be ugly.

What would be a surprising result for Montreal? More NDP seats? A lot of Liberal votes is what I would expect.

I guess what would come as a surprise in Montreal is if current NDP ridings kept the Liberals and the Bloc at bay.

Yeah i’m thinking 3 seats instead of just one.

Have you settled on a vote, Sund4r? I don't have a big preference between Green and NDP right now, and it won't make a difference either way, but I'm thinking that an NDP vote will do more to keep the riding competitive.

I actually do think we could flip back to NDP with their surge, and that is almost def how I'm voting. I'm overall OK with Trudeau as PM but would hope for NDP influence in a minority/coalition situation. I also think our NDP candidate is more impressive than the Green one and Singh is much better in French than May, which counts for something wrt national leaders.

that CPC PEI video above is stunning.

Record numbers at advance polls. It's cool they opened so long. Fri-Mon, 12 hours a day

["I voted" sticker]

I'm cool with advanced polling and am 100% for online polling but there is a communal event aspect I enjoy going to the polls on the election day.

that VIP treatment tho

that CPC PEI video above is stunning.

Wow, just watched it.

Obama makes an endorsement:

I was proud to work with Justin Trudeau as President. He's a hard-working, effective leader who takes on big issues like climate change. The world needs his progressive leadership now, and I hope our neighbors to the north support him for another term.

— Barack Obama (@BarackObama) October 16, 2019

omg lol

OPPO had a good interview with Andrew Leach about Trudeau's environmental record (and the other candidates proposals) and I suggest it to everyone.

xp
smh, just like Obama to back a foreigner over an American citizen

Does this cover most of what Leach had to say, VHS?: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/road-ahead-liberal-party-climate-plan-andrew-leach-1.5295477

Only just saw this, from Feb - our forests are actually a net producer of CO2 bc of the number of forest fires and insect infestations at this point: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/canada-forests-carbon-sink-or-source-1.5011490

Sheer gall from Ford - after putting forth legislation to cap public sector wage increases at 1% for the next three years, deputy ministers' minimum salaries go up by 14%: https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5322815?__twitter_impression=true#

It covers way more about liberals but he had stuff to say about other parties’ platforms that is interesting. I like that he can both command and criticize a party on the subject.

Fuck:

https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/elections-2019/rien-ne-va-plus-pour-steven-guilbeault-selon-un-sondage-mainstreet-80b678febcfe364592e4e465bde72624