Open for Business: Canadian Politics 2019

i think it would be more enjoyable for me, as i speak no french whatsoever.

no, i take it back. it will be annoying as fuck no matter what.

Have you considered leading the Conservative Party? xp

From what I gather, Bernier's solution to reconciliation with the First Nations is to privatize reserve land and build more pipelines.

(Admittedly, I don't have a solution.)

I gave up. Comments on Radio-Canada's FB seem depressingly pro-Bloc.

FB comments will always let you down.
tho i am kinda surprised how much the Bloc seems to be eating into the libs right now.

I apparently hate myself enough to tune into the second French debate.

― All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Friday, October 11, 2019 12:51 AM (eight hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

i think it would be more enjoyable for me, as i speak no french whatsoever.

― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Friday, October 11, 2019 12:57 AM (eight hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

no, i take it back. it will be annoying as fuck no matter what.

― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Friday, October 11, 2019 12:57 AM (eight hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

Have you considered leading the Conservative Party? xp

― All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r)

lol

so it's basically a tie now for seat projections according to polls and if the bloc keeps making gains it might be enough to give the conservatives a win (albeit a minority government)

this is depressing

Poll Tracker updated with significant movement in the numbers as the Bloc's gains in Quebec rob the Liberals of their seat advantage over the Conservatives. Liberals, Conservatives now virtually tied in both seats and votes, minority odds now 3:1. #cdnpoli https://t.co/5I1Dt3n1qW pic.twitter.com/322EHSSzzg

— Éric Grenier (@EricGrenierCBC) October 11, 2019

Tory plurality could be OK, even good, if Grits were willing to form a coalition with the NDP. There seems to typically be resistance to that idea, though, even though it is 100% legitimate and democratic in a Westminster Parliamentary system.

My riding used to be Gilles Duceppe's so it's fertile ground for a Bloc resurgence. Not voting Liberal is no longer a no-brainer, which is indeed depressing.

wow grenier's exact seat projection right now is the no majority coalition for anyone apocalypse scenario

LIbs 139, Cons 136, Bloc 33, NDP 25, Greens 4, Bernier 1

Oh wow, even Lib+NDP+Green would just add up to a plurality there, although that might be enough to govern. Con+BQ+PPC would add up to a slim majority, which might be worth it just to see them try to work together, if only for five minutes until they agreed on cutting funding for multiculturalism, restricting immigration, and devolving the rest to the provinces.

if the BQ abstains from joining anyone I guess a Lib coalition could govern

BQ with the balance of power would be interesting, I guess. I doubt any kind of minority government in this scenario lasts very long.

At this point, since I'm not overwhelmingly convinced for or against any of Lib/NDP/Green, I'll probably be back to voting 'strategically' for the NDP, in the hopes that they'll have more representation to push a minority government or coalition to the left.

Is 338canada.com reliable? It's the only place that lists odds by riding that I can find.

The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of P.J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.

So probably not especially? I don't think there is much actual riding-level polling information.

There's a list of riding specific polls here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election,_by_constituency

Only about 50.

Wtf at the cratering of NDP support here?: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election,_by_constituency#Ottawa_Centre

If Tories are polling second, maybe I should vote Liberal.

All I care about at this point is blocking the Bloc, so I empathize.

Hm, looking at the other ridings on that page, that seems to be the trend everywhere. NDP way down, Green way up.

Tbf, a lot has happened since Sept 15. I'm p sure I was planning to vote Green then too. I did start to warm to Singh over May in the last few debates.

I wonder how much the Liberals have benefitted from the emergence of "strategic voting" as a concept that's increasingly discussed openly

To post a potentially controversial opinion concerning this moment that "struck an emotional chord with the leaders, viewers,... and the moderator"): https://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/elargir-aide-mourir-question-touchante-lise-pigeon_qc_5d9fdce7e4b087efdbaba264

(Lise Pigeon, a 63yo woman in a wheelchair with MS and rheumatoid arthritis who experiences pain and incontinence, asked the party leaders at the last French debate about whether they would expand the 'right to die with dignity' in response to the recent Baudoin decision in the QC Superior Court; p much everyone said yes except Scheer who was vague; Trudeau committed to a 6mo timeline but did mention the need to balance individual freedom with protection for the most vulnerable.)

It's upsetting to our household that m/l the only instance of visibility and affirmation given to a disabled person throughout this campaign came when someone asked about the 'right' to get assistance with dying (a position that is far from a matter of consensus among the disabled). Whatever one thinks of this in principle, there is a lot (beyond health care coverage plans) that could be done to give the disabled assistance with living with dignity, which is a right that imo should be given at least as much priority. Trudeau spent a lot of time in the debates on provincial issues and the problems with Conservative Premiers in the country and what the feds would do in response to various provincial policies. Why no mention of Ford's brazen dismantling of Ontario's hitherto excellent system of home care for the elderly and disabled, something that has been making it possible for many people to live independent lives in their own homes?: https://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/ontario-begins-dismantling-local-health-integration-system . Or the $1B in cuts to both welfare and disability support?: http://incomesecurity.org/public-education/ontario-budget-2019-announces-1-billion-in-ow-and-odsp-cuts/ . Or the proposed redefinition of "disability" when it comes to ODSP to align with 'CPP guidelines' (meaning that one would have to be unable to ever work again in order to quality)?

Or, if those specific issues are too provincial in scope, what is the federal plan to do something? (There was some discussion of long-term care in the first French debate tbf.) Why, when Singh's response to virtually anything else is "the root of this problem is inequality and the way Lib and Con governments only help their friends at the top", did he not have something to say about the social conditions that sometimes lead the disabled to that point of desperation?

I wonder how much the Liberals have benefitted from the emergence of "strategic voting" as a concept that's increasingly discussed openly

There was an active nationwide strategic voting campaign in 2015; seems to be less of that this time. It's hard to say, though: the Liberals dominated the country for most of the 20th century as well.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/scheer-singh-voters-election-pitch-1.5319507

NDP "is now polling solidly in third, have edged away from a tight race with the Greens in recent days."

Liberals opening campaigning for our strategic votes. "Trudeau targets NDP, says 'only way to stop Conservative cuts' is to vote Liberal". They benefit massively. When Trudeau was promising election reform last time around, the NDP had about 3 times the seats of the Liberals.

oops my latter quote is not exactly about strategic voting but it is a theme of this article.

A vote split between progressive left parties — New Democrats, Liberals and Greens — could be a factor in Canadian elections, and the NDP is trying not to fall victim to strategic voting at this time. "I believe people should never be voting out of fear," Singh said later in the day.

ah yes the progressive left Liberals

riding polls are really unreliable, main street research in particular has had some pretty giant misses in the last few years. I think an aggregator like 338 does as well as anyone could to predict each riding, but you can't poll a country with six parties in 338 different races with any degree of accuracy, especially because polling can't predict turnout among demographic groups, and will often miss a last week surge or a strategic decision (away from mulcair, and to trudeau, away from ignatieff and to layton or harper...)

anyway vote for whoever you like most in Ottawa Centre, your vote almost definitely won't matter anyway

https://globalnews.ca/news/3816393/mainstreet-research-apologizes-for-catastrophic-polling-failure-in-2017-calgary-election/

https://www.burnabynow.com/opinion/blogs/the-pollster-that-got-the-nanaimo-byelection-wrong-says-the-bc-ndp-is-leading-1.23769875

There was an active nationwide strategic voting campaign in 2015; seems to be less of that this time.

fwiw I've seen a few viral tweets promoting it as a needed strategy to keep the Cons out

I get frustrated by how many people don't realize that voting Trudeau to stop the CPC only could work in...70 ridings? It's probably a bad strategy anywhere with a NDP incumbent, for example. And there are another 80 ridings that will go Conservative no matter what

fwiw I've seen a few viral tweets promoting it as a needed strategy to keep the Cons out

Is there anything like the Leadnow (iirc?) campaign from last time where they 'calculated' the best candidate to beat the Tories in any winnable riding and phonebanked everyone to vote for that candidate? That's the kind of thing I was referring to.

I have seen this once or twice

https://votewell.ca/

idk about phonebanking tho

meanwhile

Federal Election Polling:

CPC: 31% (-3)
LPC: 29% (-3)
NDP: 19% (+5)
GPC: 10% (-1)
BQ: 7% (+2)
PPC: 3% (-)

Campaign Research / October 10, 2019 / n=4037 / MOE 1.5 / Online

(% chg w Oct 2nd)

— Polling Canada (@CanadianPolling) October 12, 2019

I get frustrated by how many people don't realize that voting Trudeau to stop the CPC only could work in...70 ridings? It's probably a bad strategy anywhere with a NDP incumbent, for example. And there are another 80 ridings that will go Conservative no matter what

+ esp in the Prairies, you can get Tory/NDP contests

(Votewell agrees with symsymsym re my riding, ha.)

CBC Poll tracker now has 51% chance of CPC winning the most seats (8% chance of majority): https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

lots of Tory/NDP races in BC too, where a vote for the LIbs helps scheer

that votewell seems good except that it says to vote liberal in jagmeet singh's riding

Having to vote by mail puts a damper on my amateurish strategizing.

Skewed public perceptions of the nature of immigration to Canada; fake news a potential suspect: https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5316934?fbclid=IwAR2zCGgyyFvQ5W1NXaGlp6uRVAoXBqVkc3CowIPSVqDDeWCDN3LypQASSv8

although interestingly:

Despite the misconceptions found in the poll, the findings also suggested that a majority of respondents are fine with present levels of immigration.

Grenier's CBC Poll Tracker has Liberals back ahead in the seat projections and NDP (and Bloc:( ) with consistent upward momentum.

Seat projections

LIB 141
CON 134
BQ 33
NDP 25
GRN 4
PPC 1

16% Probability of the Liberals winning a majority
38% Probability of the Liberals winning the most seats but not a majority
38% Probability of the Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority
6% Probability of the Conservatives winning a majority

Whatever one thinks of this in principle, there is a lot (beyond health care coverage plans) that could be done to give the disabled assistance with living with dignity, which is a right that imo should be given at least as much priority.

Article from a couple of weeks on this, about two disabled Quebecers who did not get air time in the debates: https://beta.ctvnews.ca/national/health/2019/10/1/1_4619767.html

Ontario may be no better than this after four years of Ford.

Universal pharmacare & dentacare.

And we’re going to tax the multi-millionaires & billionaires to pay for it. #elxn43

— Jagmeet Singh (@theJagmeetSingh) October 15, 2019

Swinging big and broad, you love to see it.

Appreciate the poll tracker...looks like the NDP has a decent chance here in Sarnia-Lambton, so that's convenient.

Oh,and the election is on my birthday.