THERE'S ONLY ONE POSTSEASON (thread for 2019)

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Mind you, I didn't think the HR pitch to Rendon was bad--Rendon went way down to get that, and he seems quite locked in right now.

clemenza, Thursday, 10 October 2019 05:08 (four years ago) link

I was a bit exaggerating my manager quip earlier but barely, Kershaw is dealing with a manager who was ready to put Joe Kelly back in the 10th of a deciding game. I don’t think it tells the whole story, but I’m still not certain he’s been well managed.

Van Horn Street, Thursday, 10 October 2019 05:17 (four years ago) link

good Christ I feel terrible for my dodger fan friends, but that was an incredibly in-character postseason meltdown for this team.

omar little, Thursday, 10 October 2019 05:42 (four years ago) link

In past seasons there were games where he was left in for an inning too many and melted down, that's partly on the manager. But in this game, everyone knew going in that Kershaw would follow Beuhler, he had all the time he needed to prepare for that, and couldn't deliver.

Most of the HR's he's allowed in the PS were terrible pitches thrown at the worst times, Rendon's HR off a good pitch is the exception, not the rule.

Sheehan has been taking a turn for the moronic for a while now. I have no idea how anyone can still defend this Kershaw thing as bad luck or small samples or better competition.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Thursday, 10 October 2019 05:48 (four years ago) link

I'm a little torn abt the Flaherty comment

easy to say the game was over but these guys aren't thinking like that in an elimination game...regular season that's totally out of line but in a game 5 pitchers are trying to forget it's a blowout, and that guy was just terroroizing them.

The Ravishing of ROFL Stein (Hadrian VIII), Thursday, 10 October 2019 12:15 (four years ago) link

the whole "Kershaw has some strange condition that makes him unable to pitch in the post" thing is a bit weird to me. his postseason ERA is 4.50, which is obviously not good, but the way people talk about him you'd think it was 6+. he's facing good offenses, he pitches a ton of innings...idk I don't think you really need an additional explanation on top of it

frogbs, Thursday, 10 October 2019 13:50 (four years ago) link

like yeah, his blowups seem to always come in elimination games. but still

frogbs, Thursday, 10 October 2019 13:52 (four years ago) link

Why is Howie Kendrick batting?

— Curtis King (@CurtisBlow304) October 10, 2019

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Thursday, 10 October 2019 14:13 (four years ago) link

that pitch to Rendon, while very low looked to be smack dab in the middle of the plate though. it was a shite pitch. followed by another

(more of a xp to clem)

i always liked Howie when he was a Dodger. happy for him. go Redbirds

one charm and one antiup quark (outdoor_miner), Thursday, 10 October 2019 14:16 (four years ago) link

What is a bit frustrating with Kershaw is that Seager had a .390 OPS and Bellinger had a .549 OPS and half the bullpen (Urias, Kelly, Baez, Stripling) was beyond awful and yet he seems to be portrayed as the main culprit of this disastrous NLDS.

Van Horn Street, Thursday, 10 October 2019 14:58 (four years ago) link

and aj pollock went 0-for-13 with 11 strikeouts!

mookieproof, Thursday, 10 October 2019 15:01 (four years ago) link

i love michael a. taylor's expression after he came up with the game-ending diving catch

na (NA), Thursday, 10 October 2019 15:03 (four years ago) link

pleasantly baffled

na (NA), Thursday, 10 October 2019 15:03 (four years ago) link

lol yes he looked like he wanted permission to celebrate

The Ravishing of ROFL Stein (Hadrian VIII), Thursday, 10 October 2019 15:04 (four years ago) link

and aj pollock went 0-for-13 with 11 strikeouts!

ouch! i missed a few games from that series but that is prettty bad

It is my great honor to post on this messageboard! (Karl Malone), Thursday, 10 October 2019 15:20 (four years ago) link

i'm still reeling from the fact that kelly faced two more batters *after* the grand slam

i mean it didn't really matter by then, but wtf

mookieproof, Thursday, 10 October 2019 15:48 (four years ago) link

when you grow up in missouri or are involved with something related to it, you have to say fuck a lot. it's not a good thing and it's a source of guilt, but

Mike Shildt:

“The [Braves] started some shit. We finished the shit. And that’s how we roll. No one fucks with us ever. Now, I don’t give a fuck who we play. We’re gonna fuck them up. We’re gonna take it right to them the whole fucking way. We’re gonna kick their fucking ass.” pic.twitter.com/2J7jyJc60O

— STLSportsCentral (@stlsportscntrl) October 10, 2019

It is my great honor to post on this messageboard! (Karl Malone), Thursday, 10 October 2019 15:54 (four years ago) link

i don't think that's missouri so much as it's baseball

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-6RYPRlqZk

mookieproof, Thursday, 10 October 2019 16:02 (four years ago) link

lol, the FCC case on that must have been interesting

It is my great honor to post on this messageboard! (Karl Malone), Thursday, 10 October 2019 16:07 (four years ago) link

it's no asses in the jackpot nor is it our guys are savages in the box but what do you expect from some midwest cornfuckers

Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Thursday, 10 October 2019 16:36 (four years ago) link

hey, it's only fans of the nebraska college football team that fuck corn. in missouri they do whippits and fuck tailpipes like true americans

It is my great honor to post on this messageboard! (Karl Malone), Thursday, 10 October 2019 16:41 (four years ago) link

note taken

Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Thursday, 10 October 2019 16:43 (four years ago) link

As a foreign, jokes about midwesterners really escape me.

Van Horn Street, Thursday, 10 October 2019 16:54 (four years ago) link

Wondering if it had an impact on the bullpen’s decisions.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/why-the-dodgers-handling-of-kenta-maeda-highlights-the-potential-conflicts-of-interest-with-contract-incentives/

Van Horn Street, Thursday, 10 October 2019 17:18 (four years ago) link

But KM, Matheny was involved with MO -- did he swear?

That famed Weaver recording was of course a prank (or Redd Foxx hommage) that never aired.

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 10 October 2019 17:28 (four years ago) link

not that i'm aware of, no. but that's why he had to go.

you might be thinking "but he's in KC now, that's in missouri!" but you don't realize that matheny thinks that KC is in kansas. things are going to get ugly there fast

It is my great honor to post on this messageboard! (Karl Malone), Thursday, 10 October 2019 17:30 (four years ago) link

No joke, Dave Roberts’ wife even messaged me asking if she could get me anything before game 5. I couldn’t believe how generous they all were as an entire organization, top to bottom.

— Eireann Dolan (@EireannDolan) October 10, 2019

mookieproof, Thursday, 10 October 2019 17:40 (four years ago) link

Nothing's been inked with the Royals yet, right? Or can I lay my Metstheny nightmares aside? xp

frogbs otm i think

Kershaw postseason (wish i had FIP):

LDS: 79 1P, 3.99 ERA, 0.41 WPA
LCS: 52.2 IP, 4.61 ERA, -0.25 WPA
WS: 26.2 IP, 5.40 ERA, -0.21 WPA

All suboptimal, sure. And all small sample sizes.

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 10 October 2019 17:46 (four years ago) link

love to read pre-collapse Plaschke every year:

Fifteen minutes into a cooling Thursday night, the Washington Nationals were already sweating.

They kicked at the dirt. They fiddled with their caps. They stared helplessly at a pitcher who was losing his mind.

Ball four. Ball four. Ball four. Ball four.

Patrick Corbin had never appeared in a postseason game in his eight-year career, but he was in one now, and it furiously rushed over him like a deep blue Malibu Beach tide.

A.J. Pollock walked. Cody Bellinger walked. Chris Taylor walked. Max Muncy walked.

The Dodger Stadium crowd roared in disbelief. The Nationals stood frozen in place. The noise swallowed them. The atmosphere doomed them.

The Dodgers scored the first run in the first inning of the first game of the National League Division Series without lifting a finger. The Nationals allowed that run while wringing their hands. It was that way the entire night, one team embracing oppressive October, another team wilting in a strange new place, the Dodgers’ eventual 6-0 victory a testament to the power of seven years of this madness.

The Dodgers have been here, and it showed. The Nationals have not, and it showed even more.

The Dodgers were patient, the Nationals were panicked. The Dodgers coolly worked the plate, the Nationals wildly chased. The Dodgers pitchers didn’t blink, the Nationals pitchers couldn’t see straight.

The Dodgers were gifted two runs in the first six innings on a bases-loaded walk and a booted grounder, while the Nationals spent that time hacking and hoping at one-hit-wonder Walker Buehler.

The Dodgers’ bullpen then calmly took over while the Nationals bullpen and its 5.63 ERA — the worst bullpen ERA of any playoff team ever — threw up its hands and surrendered four runs late to finalize the margin.

In all, the Dodgers allowed two hits and worked several smart plate appearance while the Nationals gave up seven walks and committed two errors and it looked even worse than all that.

When it ended, the losers trudged from their dugout to the strains of “I Love L.A.” while the Dodgers engaged in a handshake line that included hearty hand slaps from controlling owner Mark Walter, and when have we seen that before?

Afterward, Nationals manager Dave Martinez raised his eyebrows and shook his head. He looked like he had just walked out of a horror movie.

“They’re good, they’re really good,” he said of the Dodgers. “That’s why they’ve been in the postseason so many years in a row.’’

He sighed, adding “We didn’t play very well today.”

Meanwhile, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts showed up with a grin that stretched to the Elysian Hills. He was asked if, on this night, experience counted. He couldn’t answer fast enough.

“It counted a lot,” he said.

The Dodgers make it count. This is what they do in the first weeks of this month. This is a big reason they have advanced to consecutive World Series. They overwhelm their younger opponents with their savvy. They spin them with their seen-it-all pitching. They knock them out with their been-there-done-that power.

They did it against the Atlanta Braves in the division series last year. They did it against the Arizona Diamondbacks two years ago. In fact, the score Thursday was the exact same score as last season’s playoff opener against the fledgling Braves, a 6-0 win that drove playoff-new Mike Foltynewicz out of the game in two innings.

Look at Buehler, who has pitched in a Game 7 and a Game 163 and now, another big win.

“He loves this, he thrives on these situations, you can see it again tonight,” said Justin Turner.

There was so much Dodgers experience to see. There was Muncy, who had a couple of hits, three RBIs, the hero of last year’s 18-inning World Series win, nothing bothers him. There was Joc Pederson, coming off the bench and knocking one off the right-field foul pole for his seventh career postseason home run.

Now look at the Nationals, a franchise that has never won a playoff series, and played like it.

Look at Anthony Rendon, their MVP candidate who had previously played in 15 playoff games in his career. Most of the Dodgers played in that many playoff games last year alone. Rendon went hitless with two strikeouts.

Look at Juan Soto, their relentless 20-year-old star who was the hero of Tuesday’s wild-card win over the Milwaukee Brewers. He was playing in his first playoff series, and he managed one single and left three guys on base.

But more than anything, look at Corbin in that first inning, when the Dodgers worked him not only for four walks and a run on a bases-loaded walk to Muncy, but also worked him for 31 pitches that led to an earlier entry for that awful bullpen.

“That first inning was the game,’’ Roberts said. “That first inning, to get [31] pitches… was big for our guys…that really set the tone.”

After A.J. Pollock led off the game with a walk, David Freese and Turner both struck out, but the Dodgers were unfazed.

Cody Bellinger drew a walk on four pitches. Chris Taylor drew a walk after being down two strikes. Muncy drew the scoring walk on five pitches.

“I thought we took fairly good at-bats, got the pitch count up, worked him,” Turner said. “The game plan all along is to get into the other team’s bullpen, and once we did, we took advantage.’’

Meanwhile, Buehler was occasionally wild, even walking three batters in the fourth, but the Nationals couldn’t calm down enough to make him pay.

“We chased a lot of bad pitches ... that’s uncharacteristic of our team,” Martinez said.

Then, even their experienced players acted like rookies, with former Dodger Howie Kendrick booting a Muncy grounder in the fifth inning that allowed Bellinger to score the game’s second run. Kendrick, by the way, has been involved in one winning playoff series in the last 10 years.

“Sometimes that happens…that’s gonna happen in this game,” Kendrick said. “Unfortunately, it’s in the postseason.”

And now, for Game 2 Friday, the Nationals are going with Stephen Strasburg on two days’ rest after his 34-pitch bullpen performance Tuesday while the Dodgers will counter with their future Hall of Famer named Clayton Kershaw. This best-of-five series could essentially be finished by Saturday morning.

omar little, Thursday, 10 October 2019 18:56 (four years ago) link

legend

mookieproof, Thursday, 10 October 2019 19:09 (four years ago) link

just as there are guess hitters, i guess there are guess journalists

It is my great honor to post on this messageboard! (Karl Malone), Thursday, 10 October 2019 19:11 (four years ago) link

miles mikolas and anibal sanchez will do battle in NLCS game one

mookieproof, Thursday, 10 October 2019 19:37 (four years ago) link

i bet the rays win tonight

Mr. Snrub, Thursday, 10 October 2019 19:41 (four years ago) link

+250?

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 10 October 2019 19:46 (four years ago) link

I got it at +240

Mr. Snrub, Thursday, 10 October 2019 20:13 (four years ago) link

+240 is a good deal I think. I trust 538's predictor that the Rays have about a 30% shot which makes +240 a profitable bet. Obviously Astros w/ Cole @ home in an elimination game is gonna push the line up more than it probably should

on my book its only +225 but I think it'll rise as we get closer to first pitch

frogbs, Thursday, 10 October 2019 20:15 (four years ago) link

lol i forget what those numbers mean

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 10 October 2019 20:27 (four years ago) link

The way Kershaw handles himself after these devastating losses is everything you could hope for from an athlete. I would never question the guy's character. And I think, one of these years, what happened with David Price last year will happen with him.

But again, I just can't see soft-pedaling how disappointing his pitching has been in the postseason. (Why would you split up his postseason numbers rather than just look at them in the aggregate?) Basketball's a very different sport, with more of a team dynamic, but if you had a guy who was thought of as one of the best players of his generation, a 25-PPG guy, and after almost a full season's worth of postseason games (60-70) he was playing at about 60% of his normal production--15 PPG--I don't think there'd be the rationalizing and parsing you get with Kershaw--for whatever mysterious reasons, he'd be considered a postseason washout. I'm sure the hypothetical basketball player also would have mixed in a few 35 point games along the way.

clemenza, Thursday, 10 October 2019 20:31 (four years ago) link

lol i forget what those numbers mean

+240 means bet $100 to win $240
-280 means bet $280 to win $100

frogbs, Thursday, 10 October 2019 20:35 (four years ago) link

it's definitely something...158.1 IP, 78 earned runs. To get his ERA to match his career regular season numbers, he'd have to give up only 43 earned runs. 24 homers in the postseason, and only once in an entire regular season has he given up more home runs (this past season, 28 HR in 178.1 IP).

he's been masterful sometimes obv but....

omar little, Thursday, 10 October 2019 20:41 (four years ago) link

I think high-scoring hoops stars have more control over the team's fate than even an ace pitcher? (and CK is sub-ace now)

also i saw this:

As a reminder, about 75 MLB games would be needed to ensure the chance the better team wins matches what occurs in an NBA 7-game series https://t.co/b8M0ICZpcp pic.twitter.com/xHIT0KvR7w

— Michael Lopez (@StatsbyLopez) October 10, 2019

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 10 October 2019 20:55 (four years ago) link

i think a better comparison would be to a hockey goalie who falls apart in the playoffs (e.g. mark-andre fleury 2011-2015 or so, but not previously or since). there are too many other ways for a basketball player to contribute. (end pedantry)

but yes

mookieproof, Thursday, 10 October 2019 21:00 (four years ago) link

xxp you don't often get to beat up on the Padres in the postseason though

frogbs, Thursday, 10 October 2019 21:08 (four years ago) link

and yeah basketball is a particularly low variance game - you get about 105 possessions per game and your star player has some affect on all but 10-15 (even if he's not touching the ball he's still drawing defenders). also your offense & defense consist of the same players so a freak athletic player like Giannis is gonna be great on both ends. I don't think baseball generally has that correlation.

Kershaw's rep is mostly a result of his performances in elimination games (if you just consider his 'non-elimination' game stats, they'd probably be in line with what you'd expect) which as VHS points out is sort of a function of his teammates as well. If Will Smith's flyout was hit just a couple of feet further the whole Kershaw thing would just be a side note

frogbs, Thursday, 10 October 2019 21:17 (four years ago) link

4.29 ERA in non-elimination games (for Dodgers or other team).

timellison, Thursday, 10 October 2019 22:05 (four years ago) link

In 17 starts

timellison, Thursday, 10 October 2019 22:06 (four years ago) link

We're just going to have to disagree on this. If you took Kershaw's postseason line and stuck it in his career box as one season, I think you wouldn't have any trouble reaching the obvious conclusion: he had a bad season, the worst of his career. You could chop up the season into three two-month blocks and say they're all small sample sizes, but you wouldn't do that. You'd say he had a bad season.

It doesn't make him less of a person or less of a great pitcher. And I have no idea what the explanation is. I'll go with what I said last night, that he had those two or three meltdowns earlier in his career, they got into his head, and he presses.

clemenza, Thursday, 10 October 2019 22:50 (four years ago) link

I can't believe I can't watch the game tonight. Not one of the three basic TSN stations is carrying it.

clemenza, Thursday, 10 October 2019 23:02 (four years ago) link

Thanks...guess I'm not doing it right; all I got was some kind of game server.

I'll follow along on mlb.com.

clemenza, Thursday, 10 October 2019 23:23 (four years ago) link


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