What Do You MENA (Middle East, North Africa and other nearby Political Hotspots) 2019

surprised this is the only place where discussion is taking place, although, like many people, i'm not sure what to say.

has Assad given any sort of statement?

i don't think assad is too bothered about developments and it seems like erdogan has talked to putin about his plans etc. turkey allies with syrian national army opposition elements, which obviously isn't that chill for assad, but will also possibly push ypg into allying with the regime (they've nowhere else to turn).

Turkey is NATO, which obviously isn't that chill for putin. assad's spokesperson said Syria will defend its territorial integrity and demands the withdrawal of all foreign troops, which seems like a SOP kind of response for any nation.

erdogan and putin have a pretty good relationship and for a NATO country turkey is the most favorably oriented towards russia (even buying weapons from them).

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/09/politics/syria-turkey-invasion-intl-hnk/index.html

An SDF commander has confirmed to me that the Ain Issa camp has fallen and all the detainees (a population of thousands that includes ISIS supporters, ISIS relatives and civilians) have fled. “An unbelievable mess,” the commander said. Latest message: pic.twitter.com/yDehTSKkux

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 13, 2019

Assad appears to have struck a deal to send Syrian Army troops to support the YPG/SDF against the FSA / Turkish-backed factions, with Russia providing air cover.

Self Administration of NE Syria announces an agreement with Syrian Government to protect Syrian borders with SDF against Turkey. It will also help liberating all areas from Turkey including Afrin pic.twitter.com/aatRDChDJN

— Mutlu Civiroglu (@mutludc) October 13, 2019

In a single phone call, Trump essentially forced SDF to switch sides, eventually permitting a contiguous Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon Shi'a crescent, the prevention of which was a principal reason for US intervention in Rojava. They cannot be happy with this outcome in Jerusalem and Riyadh.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/kurdish-politician-among-9-civilians-killed-by-turkey-backed-rebels-monitor/

Netanyahu and Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman willingly yoked themselves to this idiot, thinking they could pull him wherever they wanted.

It’s worked in part for them though

This is fucking terrible isn't it.

In a single phone call, Trump essentially forced SDF to switch sides, eventually permitting a contiguous Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon Shi'a crescent, the prevention of which was a principal reason for US intervention in Rojava. They cannot be happy with this outcome in Jerusalem and Riyadh.

― Inherent Contempt (Sanpaku), Sunday, October 13, 2019 12:20 PM (two days ago)

there is a "shia crescent" with or without northeastern syria being controlled by sdf. look at a map

turkey invading syria is kind of a problem for iran because they are allied with assad but also enjoy pretty good relations with turkey and can't really afford to alienate them.

I thought Kurds were Sunnis? Can u explain the Shia crescent thing to me, I'm catching up slowly

Lebanon (Hezbollah), Syria, Iraq are all allied strongly with Iran and form a contiguous "Shia crescent". My point was that even without north east Syria being under Syrian control the countries are still contiguous.

US special operations forces were widely scattered in Eastern Syria. Most in Rojava, northeast of the Euphrates, to provide training, advice, and fight alongside (mostly calling in airstrikes) with the SDF. Under this arrangement, the SDF blocked transport from Iraq along the highways on each bank of the Euphrates.

Another US SOF contingent was embedded with Arab Syrian rebels at An Tanf, 300 km from Kurdish Rojava, strategically blocking the Baghdad-Damascus highway.

Between the two, the US could fairly effectively block much land transport between Tehran and Damascus, with a rather small ground footprint. Remove the US from the equation, and the SDF complies with Assad's wishes, and the Syrian Hwy 2 is open for business.

they haven't withdrawn from at-tanf tho

and it's more an inconvenience to be navigated around than a roadblock

also the question is how long do you think the US should have kept occupying syria to marginally stymie road delivery of materiel?

If the strategic interest of the US is in buttressing the Saudi-UAE-Israel coalition in their proxy wars against the Iran-Syria coalition (and yes, I'm dubious about this objective), then a US presence in Syria and developing an autonomous Rojava provided leverage.

SDF is the most competent military force between Tehran and Damascus, and maybe between Tehran and Jerusalem. Ignoring morality, betraying them is bad geopolitics, and markedly reduces US influence in the region now and in the forseeable future.

fair enough.

i think the most classically trumpian aspect is that the biggest upside that could come from turning your back on the kurds would be improving relations with turkey. instead he responds to them doing what they were obviously going to do with sanctions.

Do we think he's been influenced by Putin in this? Are the trump towers in Turkey signs of substantial investment there?

seemingly it stemmed directly from a phone call he had with erdogan on the 6th, but he had expected him not to "[do] anything that I, in my great and unmatched wisdom, consider to be off limits".

turkey is going to stop the offensive for 120 hours but will commence again if kurdish forces haven't withdrawn.

president deals does it again

hmm did Erdogan also agree not to resettle Syrians in the territory and to let the Kurds back in

this is just an empty gesture, what does a ceasefire even mean 120 hrs from now, the damage is done

meanwhile, can we put a fork in Bibi yet

https://www.yahoo.com/news/netanyahus-latest-call-unity-government-143751810.html

hmm did Erdogan also agree not to resettle Syrians in the territory and to let the Kurds back in

this is just an empty gesture, what does a ceasefire even mean 120 hrs from now, the damage is done

― The Ravishing of ROFL Stein (Hadrian VIII), Thursday, October 17, 2019 12:35 PM (fourteen minutes ago)

well it means advancing the advance which hasn't been completed yet. the sdf would likely have to strike a deal wit the saa again as they did with kobani and manbij tho as obviously turkey aren't exactly to be trusted

that advancing should halting

Bibi out

Gantz not hugely likely to be able to form a government either though?

yeah it's a mess, but I relish any diminishment of Bibi's power tbh

removing Bibi from the center of power limits the damage he can do. even if it's only temporary, that's still good.

prob good for israel to just not have functioning govt for a year

Anyone have a sense of how much personal animosity to Netanyahu is contributing to this impasse? Is Likud thinking of electing Yuli-Yoel Edelstein or Israel Katz as party leader?

to me (hardly an expert in israeli politics) the issue seems to be avigdor lieberman. if he supported bibi then the impasse would be finished - they could have formed a government in may even. they've been in government before, they don't have huge political differences that are readily apparent. but he's taken this "secularist" turn so he can't go into government with netanyahu, as that would mean going into government with the ultra-orthodox. this seems to be simply a wedge issue he's created because he knows that if he goes into government with netanyahu again he'll get some nice ministerial appointment as in the past but bibi will pull the strings. changing of the guard and king-making with gantz would perhaps open new vistas to him

(on the other hand the chance of lieberman wanting to go into a coalition with benny gantz which would include the arab parties - and vice versa, seems hard to imagine)

oh yeah also no one in likud looks like they want to dethrone netanyahu rn. he's too popular with the party's supporters it seems

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/23/world/middleeast/global-protests.html

Protests in Lebanon

i have no idea how this is measured, but this is interesting:

But as protest movements grow, their success rates are plunging. Only 20 years ago, 70 percent of protests demanding systemic political change achieved it — a figure that had been growing steadily since the 1950s, according to a study by Erica Chenoweth, a Harvard University political scientist.

In the mid-2000s, that trend reversed. Success rates now stand at 30 percent, the study said, a decline that Professor Chenoweth called staggering.

These two trends are closely linked. As protests become more frequent but likelier to flounder, they stretch on and on, becoming more contentious, more visible — and more apt to return to the streets when their demands go unmet. The result may be a world where popular uprisings lose their prominence, becoming simply part of the landscape.

Interesting and depressing.

In Lebanon, Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri survived recent embarrassing revelations about a $16 million gift to a bikini model whom he met at a luxury resort in the Seychelles in 2013, a move that, for some critics, epitomized Lebanon’s ruling class. Then last week he announced the tax on WhatsApp calls, setting off a revolt.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/27/us-reportedly-carries-out-operation-against-isis-leader-abu-bakr-al-baghdadi

No word yet on exactly what has happened.

More info available now.

Meanwhile in Lebanon, Hezbollah supporters are not happy with protestors or even folks selling food near protest site. So they’re knocking everything down and chasing out protesters

https://apple.news/AENL-FDeFMcavqKHQUFL6UA

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/29/middleeast/lebanon-saad-hariri-resigns-intl/index.html

Lebanon Prime Minister resigns

"It's a good first step but we're still going to stay in the streets," Pierre Mouzannar, a 21-year old filmmaker told Al Jazeera in central Beirut. "Hariri is part of the problem but he's not all of the problem … I don't think anyone thinks we're done."

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/10/lebanese-protesters-celebrate-hariri-resignation-191029203414584.html

The Trump administration has frozen all military aid to the Lebanese army, including a package worth $105 million that both the State Department and Congress approved in September, congressional officials said Friday.

The halt to American funding of the Lebanese Armed Forces, an important multisectarian group, comes at a critical time for Lebanon, as officials are grappling with the country’s largest street protests since its independence in 1943 and a change in leadership forced by the demonstrations. A freeze on the assistance could give Iran and Russia an opening to exert greater influence over the Lebanese military, analysts say, and perhaps even allow the Islamic State and Al Qaeda to gain greater footholds in the country.

That’s The NY Times take