What Do You MENA (Middle East, North Africa and other nearby Political Hotspots) 2019

:(

I don't know what to say, it's just tragic.

Tragic but predictable.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_Towers_Istanbul

This must play a factor sadly

disgusting

nothing to worry about folks bigly brain is on it

As I have stated strongly before, and just to reiterate, if Turkey does anything that I, in my great and unmatched wisdom, consider to be off limits, I will totally destroy and obliterate the Economy of Turkey (I’ve done before!). They must, with Europe and others, watch over...

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 7, 2019

man FUUUUUUCK this guy

Yeah, that. Already dreaded the fucking monstrous Trump tweets popping up (not blaming you Carne tbh). It's a license to kill people and family and friends of mine and of people I know. Sick to the stomach.

When you lose heaven’s mandated...

Pat Robertson is "appalled" by Trump's decision to withdraw U.S. troops from northern Syria: "The President of the United States is in great danger of losing the mandate of Heaven if he permits this to happen." pic.twitter.com/YGeNYpbGrF

— Right Wing Watch (@RightWingWatch) October 7, 2019

these absolute fucking hobgoblins

It is hard to imagine the kind of will and toughness that keeps the Kurds intact in the face of so many enemies and so many betrayals. Or the kind of psychological damage it does to maintain that will and toughness.

I recognize that this is one of the few areas where there's a positive to troop prescence but this is surely something that should happen under the UN not the US (illegal anyway, not that that means anything)

I know, the UN is dead and long buried.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/10/07/just-hours-after-trump-bends-erdogan-reports-indicate-turkeys-bombing-kurdish-forces

Turkish troops launch offensive into northern Syria

surprised this is the only place where discussion is taking place, although, like many people, i'm not sure what to say.

has Assad given any sort of statement?

i don't think assad is too bothered about developments and it seems like erdogan has talked to putin about his plans etc. turkey allies with syrian national army opposition elements, which obviously isn't that chill for assad, but will also possibly push ypg into allying with the regime (they've nowhere else to turn).

Turkey is NATO, which obviously isn't that chill for putin. assad's spokesperson said Syria will defend its territorial integrity and demands the withdrawal of all foreign troops, which seems like a SOP kind of response for any nation.

erdogan and putin have a pretty good relationship and for a NATO country turkey is the most favorably oriented towards russia (even buying weapons from them).

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/09/politics/syria-turkey-invasion-intl-hnk/index.html

An SDF commander has confirmed to me that the Ain Issa camp has fallen and all the detainees (a population of thousands that includes ISIS supporters, ISIS relatives and civilians) have fled. “An unbelievable mess,” the commander said. Latest message: pic.twitter.com/yDehTSKkux

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 13, 2019

Assad appears to have struck a deal to send Syrian Army troops to support the YPG/SDF against the FSA / Turkish-backed factions, with Russia providing air cover.

Self Administration of NE Syria announces an agreement with Syrian Government to protect Syrian borders with SDF against Turkey. It will also help liberating all areas from Turkey including Afrin pic.twitter.com/aatRDChDJN

— Mutlu Civiroglu (@mutludc) October 13, 2019

In a single phone call, Trump essentially forced SDF to switch sides, eventually permitting a contiguous Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon Shi'a crescent, the prevention of which was a principal reason for US intervention in Rojava. They cannot be happy with this outcome in Jerusalem and Riyadh.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/kurdish-politician-among-9-civilians-killed-by-turkey-backed-rebels-monitor/

Netanyahu and Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman willingly yoked themselves to this idiot, thinking they could pull him wherever they wanted.

It’s worked in part for them though

This is fucking terrible isn't it.

In a single phone call, Trump essentially forced SDF to switch sides, eventually permitting a contiguous Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon Shi'a crescent, the prevention of which was a principal reason for US intervention in Rojava. They cannot be happy with this outcome in Jerusalem and Riyadh.

― Inherent Contempt (Sanpaku), Sunday, October 13, 2019 12:20 PM (two days ago)

there is a "shia crescent" with or without northeastern syria being controlled by sdf. look at a map

turkey invading syria is kind of a problem for iran because they are allied with assad but also enjoy pretty good relations with turkey and can't really afford to alienate them.

I thought Kurds were Sunnis? Can u explain the Shia crescent thing to me, I'm catching up slowly

Lebanon (Hezbollah), Syria, Iraq are all allied strongly with Iran and form a contiguous "Shia crescent". My point was that even without north east Syria being under Syrian control the countries are still contiguous.

US special operations forces were widely scattered in Eastern Syria. Most in Rojava, northeast of the Euphrates, to provide training, advice, and fight alongside (mostly calling in airstrikes) with the SDF. Under this arrangement, the SDF blocked transport from Iraq along the highways on each bank of the Euphrates.

Another US SOF contingent was embedded with Arab Syrian rebels at An Tanf, 300 km from Kurdish Rojava, strategically blocking the Baghdad-Damascus highway.

Between the two, the US could fairly effectively block much land transport between Tehran and Damascus, with a rather small ground footprint. Remove the US from the equation, and the SDF complies with Assad's wishes, and the Syrian Hwy 2 is open for business.

they haven't withdrawn from at-tanf tho

and it's more an inconvenience to be navigated around than a roadblock

also the question is how long do you think the US should have kept occupying syria to marginally stymie road delivery of materiel?

If the strategic interest of the US is in buttressing the Saudi-UAE-Israel coalition in their proxy wars against the Iran-Syria coalition (and yes, I'm dubious about this objective), then a US presence in Syria and developing an autonomous Rojava provided leverage.

SDF is the most competent military force between Tehran and Damascus, and maybe between Tehran and Jerusalem. Ignoring morality, betraying them is bad geopolitics, and markedly reduces US influence in the region now and in the forseeable future.

fair enough.

i think the most classically trumpian aspect is that the biggest upside that could come from turning your back on the kurds would be improving relations with turkey. instead he responds to them doing what they were obviously going to do with sanctions.

Do we think he's been influenced by Putin in this? Are the trump towers in Turkey signs of substantial investment there?

seemingly it stemmed directly from a phone call he had with erdogan on the 6th, but he had expected him not to "[do] anything that I, in my great and unmatched wisdom, consider to be off limits".

turkey is going to stop the offensive for 120 hours but will commence again if kurdish forces haven't withdrawn.

president deals does it again

hmm did Erdogan also agree not to resettle Syrians in the territory and to let the Kurds back in

this is just an empty gesture, what does a ceasefire even mean 120 hrs from now, the damage is done

meanwhile, can we put a fork in Bibi yet

https://www.yahoo.com/news/netanyahus-latest-call-unity-government-143751810.html

hmm did Erdogan also agree not to resettle Syrians in the territory and to let the Kurds back in

this is just an empty gesture, what does a ceasefire even mean 120 hrs from now, the damage is done

― The Ravishing of ROFL Stein (Hadrian VIII), Thursday, October 17, 2019 12:35 PM (fourteen minutes ago)

well it means advancing the advance which hasn't been completed yet. the sdf would likely have to strike a deal wit the saa again as they did with kobani and manbij tho as obviously turkey aren't exactly to be trusted

that advancing should halting

Bibi out

Gantz not hugely likely to be able to form a government either though?

yeah it's a mess, but I relish any diminishment of Bibi's power tbh

removing Bibi from the center of power limits the damage he can do. even if it's only temporary, that's still good.

prob good for israel to just not have functioning govt for a year

Anyone have a sense of how much personal animosity to Netanyahu is contributing to this impasse? Is Likud thinking of electing Yuli-Yoel Edelstein or Israel Katz as party leader?