PMs change and lol we're all gonna die (but brexit will never end)

he'll just continue doing this - ramping up the culture war with a bannon-style "let them call you racist, wear it as badge of honour" strategy. this could be effective if the opposition get sucked into the same 'sir have you no honour' trap the US democrats fell into - party needs to keep on hammering their transformative and inspiring policies

people will have a genuine choice at the next election. let's hope they don't choose the bunch of hard right head banging libertarian types with a prospectus for singapore-on-sea

Latest @Survation poll, 25 September (changes since GE17):

Con 27% (-17)
Lab 24% (-17)
LD 22% (+14)
BXP 16% (+16)

[My seat estimate]
Con 286 (-31)
Lab 243 (-19)
SNP 51 (+16)
LD 45 (+33)
BXP 1 (+1)
Oth 24 (-)

Tories & DUP: 296 (-31)
All other MPs: 346 (+32)

— Stats for Lefties 🌹 🌹 (@LeftieStats) September 25, 2019

It may seem astonishing that Labour could outpoll the Lib Dems by just 2pts and win 198 more seats.

But bear in mind that, in 1983, Labour won 26.8% in England. The SDP-Liberal Alliance won 26.4%.

Labour won 148 seats. The Alliance won 14.

yeah! eat them fucking stats Swinson LibDems with pretensions of majority government.

Ian Murray: “If he doesn't get a deal through this House, or a no-deal through this House, by 19 October, will he seek an extension from the EU to 31 January?”

PM: “No.”

— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) September 25, 2019

resigning then. good

Stats4Lefties predictions always seem ridic pessimistic to me but perhaps they should be.

dan hodges.... otm?
https://mobile.twitter.com/lewis_goodall

I think the referendum result has to be respected. But at any price? Literally nothing else matters? The rule of law. Basic decency towards the family and friends of a murdered MP. Respect for our fundamental principles and institutions. By any means necessary now?

— (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges) September 25, 2019

3 hours 46 minutes pic.twitter.com/ogqzrWPKak

— a a dril (@demarionunn) September 25, 2019

Life comes at you fast.

xxp if you add the "coalition of chaos" seats from the SNP it looks a much more optimistic picture. Please please come to your senses and go back to voting for the tories Dan!

ordinarily him resigning in humiliation would be that but all the laws of political gravity seem to be in temporary suspension. could still be quite a dangerous moment for the opposition - presume he would lead CONs into imminent GE, standing on an “I tried I really did but these frustrated us at every turn / I am brexit 4real” platform. still don’t see how that builds enough of a coalition but haven’t looked at the numbers closely granted

all the laws of political gravity seem to be in temporary suspension.

it's very unsettling.

'today the vice president threw the minority leader through a table and fractured her collarbone'

'yes, but ACTUALLY, i know it seems dramatic but has anything actually CHANGED as a result of this?'

I wonder if any letters went to the 1922 tonight. BH etc etc

It's weird how little you hear 1922 getting mentioned during such dramatic events etc.

well not weird .. just predictable.

Mail has buried more than one news line in its polls, these are some interesting numbers.


https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1176997880286130176?s=21

link doesn't work

An distressing amount of this depends on the inside of Nigel Farage's head.

I misread that, sorry

51% of voters think Johnson should resign (23% of Conservatives)

41% of voters think he should not resign (73% of Conservatives)

It does not feature in the news report writethrough https://t.co/ITU8kXWGSV

— Sunder Katwala (@sundersays) September 25, 2019

James 'Genius' Cleverley explaining that all sides are using shorthand, the Labour Party are calling the bill the Benn Bill, which is not its actual name, and the Prime Minister is calling it the Surrender Bill. So that's all right then.

ICONIC reaction shot here from ⁦@LaylaMoran⁩ ⁦⁦@BarryGardiner⁩ and ⁦@Sandbach⁩ on @BBCNewsnight⁩ just now (👏 👏👏 studio director for catching it!) #newsnight pic.twitter.com/SxAVpG60XP

— Maya Rostowska (@maya_rstw) September 25, 2019

It's started this morning, a succession of poor old middle aged male Tory MPs pointing out that the abuse they are getting is every bit as bad and distressing... apparently.

tfw fred b does a post

Giffed it pic.twitter.com/W6KWIFgYj8

— Ed Brown (@Edsbrown) September 25, 2019

I'm not buying any of this "we need to be nicer to each other" rinse from Brendan Cox earlier. Politics has been adversarial and tribal in this country as far I can remember and that isn't the issue. The issue is a conservative government that has gone to the far right and courted extreme elements of the far right with their policies, tone, language etc being civil to nazis doesn't solve anything.

yes - melt. next

DA disappointingly cautious when quizzed re new immigration position

wonder if cummings has seen some internal polling after this intervention that’s driving this strategy

Totally unprecedented to see a Conservative Prime Minister blaming their own failures on specific MPs using a poisonous and wildly irresponsible public vs Parliament framing. pic.twitter.com/yEtz23ewtC

— Flying_Rodent (@flying_rodent) September 25, 2019

Let’s pause to remember Brendan Cox has a few boundaries issues with women, too. In future we should probably seek comment from Jo’s sister, who stepped up to run the Jo Cox Foundation when he had to stand down.

(xp) No doubt about it, I would have thought. "It worked for Trump, Boris is doing the right thing" according to an unnamed Tory MP (according to a Sky correspondent).

either berger has completely drunk the kool-aid or the LDs have some properly EXTRAORDINARY internal polling for finchley

looks like it will make the seat a labour gain tho so that’s good

I wouldn’t bet against her tbh.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EFX3kL-XUAAM8Iv?format=jpg&name=small

that would take a huge swing

xxxp Jewish chronicle says the latter

presumably take 6k off each CONS and LAB which would put it solidly in three-way horse territory - could also bring out some personal vote due to her treatment (ie bullying) in recent times. might be right - def must be in play else she wouldn’t be parachuting in

She could get the swing, imo.

A lot of the Tory voters are fairly well-to-do Asians who are likely to be suspicious of Johnson but not likely to flip to Labour. There's a large (20%+) Jewish community that may be receptive to a young Jewish 'campaigner against anti-semitism'. There's also an increasing gentrification which probably serves the LDs well.

The responses to this story are from angry voters worried she’ll take votes away from the Tories and let Labour in. Idt it’s fair to say she’s “parachuted” in when she’s got a home in the area and was raised in London, not to put scare quotes around “campaigner against antisemitism”.

fair

She’s from Wembley. I think she’ll take Jewish Tory votes for sure, because they are not Brexity.

an aside: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/sep/25/wrightbus-goes-into-administration-1400-jobs-routemaster-northern-ireland

(maker of the boris bus)

she'll take Jewish Tory votes for sure, because they are not Brexity

not in my wembley-adjacent jewish family, unfortunately

She's also now fairly recognisable and popular among the electorate, certainly by CUK standards. Depends on who the other parties put up against her but I wouldn't bet against her getting that swing.

3rd govt source: “I’ve renamed my imaginary dog ‘Labour support the surrender act’. Unfortunately he’s gone missing so I’ve spent the morning running around east London having to shout ‘Labour support the surrender act’. I do hope they don’t find this offensive”

— Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) September 26, 2019

Good lord they’re clearly mining ILX for memes.

Normal country

This is truly disturbing.

These ads promoting Brexit & Boris Johnson were beamed onto the digital noticeboards of primary schools across the country today, apparently by a private contractor.

Who made/paid for them?

How is this remotely acceptable?https://t.co/0jSp20d8CT pic.twitter.com/OaKzELuPDf

— Tom Scott (@Tom___Scott) September 25, 2019

Baggymp is now listening
https://www.last.fm/user/baggymp

Have we discussed his shoutbox? Cos it’s amazing

The adverts are completely nuts but it’s also fairly alarming there are digital notice boards run by private advertising contractors in primary schools in the first place.

xp he makes me want to stop liking music that i do like :(

fucking hell, bring back the old duster and chalkboards ffs!

don’t want to think about baggymp’s shoutbox

The adverts are completely nuts but it’s also fairly alarming there are digital notice boards run by private advertising contractors in primary schools in the first place.

extremely otm on both counts, this is seriously dystopian shit

Children of Klan

Truly appalling stuff last night. Just catching up before I'm off to the dentist but the extraction of a molar is a doozy compared to BJ's new lows.