The September 2019 US Politics Thread is great Great GREAT GR8

i think it's weird that trump is saying he is willing to release the transcript. maybe he is just fucking with us because other officials are trying to prevent its release. because it sounds like the transcript would be damning

― treeship., Monday, September 23, 2019 10:53 AM (twelve minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

trump is willing to release the transcript to a "respectable source" and have that person interpret the news. not the same thing as releasing the transcript. this is exactly what nixon tried to do, share the his white house tapes to conservative dem john stennis, who would then give his report on the tapes.

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/trump-eyes-page-nixons-watergate-playbook

The only reasonable response to the President’s effort to force Ukraine to interfere in the 2020 presidential election is to demand the President resign and be prosecuted for criminal abuse of power after he leaves the White House. The President has deserved to be impeached for years. But last week’s revelations have an immediate bearing on the President’s foreign policy team and his top advisors at the White House.

...

The point is that something this egregious happened. It directly involved in the President in explicit demands to a foreign leader. Some or all of the President’s top advisors and certainly his top foreign policy team (National Security Advisor, Secretary of State, et al.) knew this was happening. And they were apparently okay with it. At a minimum, they allowed it to happen and participated in it and made no attempt to stop it. There is only a story because some unknown whistleblower decided to blow the whistle. Just as importantly, a Trump appointee, Inspector General Michael Atkinson, decided to force the matter by informing Congress of the existence of the whistleblower complaint even though administration officials prevented him from disclosing its substance.

This all has pretty dramatic implications beyond this one bad act. Many have assumed or at least left open the possibility that the President’s advisors keep him from participating himself in the most egregious wrongdoing. Maybe he has underlings like Rudy Giuliani or Corey Lewandowski do things outside government channels. Maybe the Saudis just know he’ll be happy if they pump millions of dollars into one of his hotels. We hear that the President often makes outrageous or nonsensical suggestions in staff meetings. But his advisors know to discreetly ignore these directives.

Apparently none of this is the case.

This new episode suggests that the President can personally commit the most egregious wrongdoing, clearly impeachable offenses, in full view of his most senior advisors, and we hear nothing about it. We only know about this because of this whistleblower, who is him or herself now being attacked publicly as a Deep State partisan. Could Trump have made financial demands of Gulf monarchies to help his private businesses? Could he have asked Vladimir Putin for election assistance in 2020? Given that the demand on Ukraine was considered acceptable and is now being affirmatively defended, there’s no reason to think that these actions wouldn’t have been deemed acceptable and within the President’s purview as well.

Why would a demand for election assistance from Ukraine be acceptable and ones of Russia or Saudi Arabia wouldn’t? Why would demands for assistance to his personal businesses be worse than ones for election interference? (To me, they’d be less problematic. The President profiting personally from the presidency is wrong but it’s less damaging to the country than preventing a free and fair election.) Clearly I can hypothesize any kind of wrongdoing and say that it’s now possible and that his team would go along with it. But that’s the point: whatever in extremis guard rails we may have been thinking existed, at least for what the President does in full view of the chiefs officers of state, clearly don’t exist.

We know the President wants to do all manner of bad acts and sees nothing wrong with them. This new development suggests he probably has, that his top advisors know about those bad acts and decided it was okay.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-whole-team-is-in-on-it

i continue to dumbly believe (or in a more positive way, i continue to believe what i am very clearly seeing with my own eyes) that this whole thing is so over the line and egregiously long that pelosi will be FORCED to do something about it, which is apparently what she wants

Leaving aside the fact that nobody on ILX wants him to be the nominee, could Biden realistically continue as a candidate with impeachment hearings into Trump trying to leverage his son's alleged corruption going on? I don't think he's actually done anything wrong but it would be months of press coverage that seems like it would swallow his campaign whole.

he certainly can. and i think there's a decent chance that all of this will BOOST his candidacy (if he responds reasonably, which he probably will not). he is going to have a ton of attention focused on him because of this, and there are a lot of people, particularly democratic voters, who will naturally rally around a person that trump is attacking.

That’s a good question. It’s the kind of case—like the “emails”—that is hard for the public to quickly grasp so it will likely linger over him like a cloud. “People are saying...”

first he lost his wife and children to a car crash, than Beau to brain cancer, and now a corrupt president is trying to ruin Hunter in order to smear him as all the polls show him trouncing trump?

that's a compelling story on the face of it, and we all know that in U.S. democratic elections it's the compelling story and the perception of the candidate that ends up mattering, not policy or their previous record.

I don’t think it will boost his candidacy, honestly. From the outside, it looks like Hunter was given a highly paid nonsense job in an infamously corrupt country and industry due to who his father is.

Also it just puts hunter in the news, and he is the guy who was datinf his brother’s widow which, I mean, Americans get weirded out by this stuff. I don’t know anything about Hunter really and maybe he’s a cool dude but i don’t think he is going to be a big hit with the voters.

just reading the wikipedia page on Hunter makes me think this could hurt Biden's chances

i continue to dumbly believe (or in a more positive way, i continue to believe what i am very clearly seeing with my own eyes) that this whole thing is so over the line and egregiously long that pelosi will be FORCED to do something about it, which is apparently what she wants

I'm hoping the same. you have to figure Pelosi & the succdems are essentially complicit in Trump's crimes and I think that point is right now

One of the things I don’t understand about the impeachment discussion is the timing of it. Can’t the House drag hearings out in 2020 to highlight his crimes right through the election? Most of the discussion of it in the media makes it sound as if the Democrats won’t have control over the process

I think democratic reps in swing districts are telling Pelosi they don’t want to be seen as “divisive.”

he certainly can. and i think there's a decent chance that all of this will BOOST his candidacy (if he responds reasonably, which he probably will not). he is going to have a ton of attention focused on him because of this, and there are a lot of people, particularly democratic voters, who will naturally rally around a person that trump is attacking.

― Sally Jessy (Karl Malone), Monday, September 23, 2019 12:24 PM (eight minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

That’s a good question. It’s the kind of case—like the “emails”—that is hard for the public to quickly grasp so it will likely linger over him like a cloud. “People are saying...”

― treeship., Monday, September 23, 2019 12:24 PM

I've kept a close eye on the media since the story broke last Thursday, and I'm surprised it hasn't turned into "B-but her emails!" I suspect the explanations are (a) Biden has an inflated reputation for goodness, so Beltway media will give him the benefit of the doubt, unlike Clinton, whom they disliked (b) Biden is a guy.

Yeah, I mean, let’s hope the America is sexist enough to keep holding it together then.

One of the things I don’t understand about the impeachment discussion is the timing of it. Can’t the House drag hearings out in 2020 to highlight his crimes right through the election? Most of the discussion of it in the media makes it sound as if the Democrats won’t have control over the process

― Dan S, Monday, September 23, 2019 12:31 PM (six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

People are probably remembering the Clinton impeachment process, which took about a week in the House, rather than the Nixon one which went on for ten months there.

democrats wouldn't have control over a major hurdle: the senate vote, which people correctly argue will be blocked by mitch mcconnell. they would have control over the house proceedings which lead up to the senate vote

kudos on the Nixon-Stennis precedent, voodoo

i think they should very loudly and publicly conduct the house investigations, aiming to dredge up even 10% of the shit that has gone on over the last few years (more awful things have happened than we can even readily recall, due to the volume). make it clear that he has been committing crimes and he is still committing crimes due to the lack of accountability by republicans. then send it over to the senate so that every single republican can vote against impeachment. then hold the 2020 election

maybe that's pelosi's plan and she just wants to get the ball moving as late as possible. this holds open the door to the possibility that he does something even worse than what he's already known to have done.

I have suspected that is the plan all along; to tie up 2020's election season with non stop investigations and possibly impeachment, in order to spoil his chances for re-election.

she's acting like this motherfucker isn't an actual huge danger to well-being of our citizens, residents, and the world _right now_. and she has one real tool to mitigate that danger. of course, it has its own hazards. but acting like "la la la elections next year la la" is bad.

yeah, i agree 100%

If they wait until next year, Moscow Mitch will probably squawk about "no hearings during an election year", the dems will loudly "oh drat" and shuffle back to their offices to pound out impotent tweets.

she's playing a defensive game, i think. she's afraid of what will happen if the democrats misplay their hand.

but it's not really the time for that

think we're gonna really get to the bottom of this one today

thanks brad. with me here we at least have a shot--but it's a tricky one i have to admit

https://oyster.ignimgs.com/mediawiki/apis.ign.com/final-fantasy-x/6/6e/Part_04-02.JPG

good morning!

And the sound of silence from most every Senate R in last few days underscores their unease w what Ds see as a brazen abuse of power. Would they want to be on hook for clearing Trump ? It’s a no-win vote for a number of those up in ‘20.

— Jonathan Martin (@jmartNYT) September 23, 2019

this seems so self-evidently true. the idea that whatever pelosi and schumer think they are doing is good electoral politics is nuts to me.

Hey so let me just go ahead and say that to whatever extent Pelosi is holding back impeachment such that it has maximum impact wrt 2020 elections, it's a massive act of hubris that pretends that the world still works the way it did before Trump. You can't predict and control these things or their ultimate impact, as comforting as the notion may be. Just pull the fucking trigger already.

every day that passes, at this very moment, makes it harder to ask the inevitable question democrats will get in 2020: if what trump was doing was so obviously criminal, why didn't you impeach him? the mueller report was more than damning; the ukraine shit is more than more than more than damning. it's going to be hard to rebut that inevitable question if they wait several months (or never) to actually impeach. it is clear that ongoing criminal activity is going on: impeach him NOW.

it is such accepted wisdom in Democratic circles that the Kav hearings slowed the pre-election Dem momentum, and prevented bigger congressional gains. I'm sure pelosi and co. think impeachment would fire up the GOP similiarly.

in part because Claire McCaskill can't stop yapping on NBC/MSNC
about why she lost.

you have to take risks in life

Kavanaugh was a political prize that the entire religious right valued at the price of their immortal souls by backing Trump and protecting him so he could deliver the federal court system into their hands. Trump they may not value so highly, once they understand Pence is his replacement. Pence was always the evangelicals' insurance policy.

if you can't "outfire up" the GOP by laying out the Grifter's actions, get another job

domestic would-be terrorist to break up the day

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fbi-arrests-army-soldier-allegedly-discussed-plans-bomb/story?id=65802902

anyone interested in Hunter should read this New Yorker profile from July; the campaign clearly knew this was going to be trouble and released basically every bit of opposition they could dig up as a firewall. he comes off like an asshole but likely not criminal.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/07/08/will-hunter-biden-jeopardize-his-fathers-campaign

he just seems kind of erratic. like apparently earlier this year he married someone within days of meeting her. and this was only a short time after he broke it off with his brother's widow.

all just kind of gossipy stuff--i don't want to pretend i know what goes on in people's lives--but it's the sort of thing i'm afraid to see circulate in the press throughout the election should biden be the candidate.

Every time I hear Biden's name between Trump and Ukraine I just think, come on, shut the fuck up, even if Biden was up to no good Trump still deserves to be impeached.

One of the many additional reasons congress needs to act is that Trump will be at least as huge a pain in the ass when he is out of office, causing tons of trouble and headaches and, well, crimes, without the benefit of congressional oversight (and with secret service protection!).

i mean, ok, but if investigating the conduct of the candidates' children is just standard practice now, are don jr and eric gonna get grilled while fuckface senior gets grilled about it?

xp

pic.twitter.com/2FMxrVOzPn

— Jeffrey Guterman (@JeffreyGuterman) September 23, 2019

What a lumbering turd.

i mean, ok, but if investigating the conduct of the candidates' children is just standard practice now, are don jr and eric gonna get grilled while fuckface senior gets grilled about it?

oh for sure. it's not fair no matter how you slice it.

every day that passes, at this very moment, makes it harder to ask the inevitable question democrats will get in 2020: if what trump was doing was so obviously criminal, why didn't you impeach him? the mueller report was more than damning; the ukraine shit is more than more than more than damning. it's going to be hard to rebut that inevitable question if they wait several months (or never) to actually impeach. it is clear that ongoing criminal activity is going on: impeach him NOW.

otm - its infuriating that the Dems are so worried about the perception that they're just "playing politics" yet are okay attempting this for maximum electoral effect, which everyone can see right through. the fact that the Dems care so much about what the right thinks of them is their single biggest political failing, especially when this contributes to what (imo) is their actual biggest issue, the perception that they're just nicer Republicans who wouldn't dare rock the boat

And of course the stupid gamble of waiting until 2020 is that if the Dems lose again, everyone and everything is even worse off than it is now. So get started, fuckers.

honestly I don't see a failed impeachment inquiry hurting them at all, Trump has such an insane amount of baggage and committing crimes in office is only like, 5% of it. plus I think everyone sorta gets that politics is just straight partisanship at this point

karl had the best point -- if dems don't move to impeach, then it seems like they don't really think what trump is doing is that serious. which takes the teeth out of their critiques of him.