hall of fame, next vote...

...hall of famer yadier molina.

But you might also reopen (for the Veteran's Committee) the Hall of Famer Jim Sundberg and Hall of Famer Bob Boone doors.

Honestly I think Bob Boone belongs in the hall just for his easy-times Bob name, which has always brought me comfort

I think that there should be a space for defensive specialists like Molina, or we risk having only one or two type of players in the Hall.

currently seventh all-time in games played at catcher

it's an interesting list (and maybe jason kendall should get more props than he did)

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/Gm_c_career.shtml

catcher is underrepresented in the HOF to some extent though if Yadi gets in, there are a few other dudes such as Kendall, Parrish, Simmons, etc you gotta consider perhaps ahead of him or at least concurrently?

xp Molina used to be a defensive specialist, but he provided plus offense for a number of years as well (not this year, unfortunately)

I think there's been a growing consensus--James, Jaffe, others--that Simmons is on the shortlist of non-PED guys who deserve induction a.s.a.p.

it takes a tremendous toll on the body (and the offense), which is why i'm impressed with the sheer number of games played

yadi's offensive numbers this year are almost exactly the same as buster posey's, despite being five years older

He will have no traction unfortunately but Russel Martin is a player that I believe should get consideration.

i'm guessing Molina gets in, and I do suspect Mauer will also. Simmons seems like he'll eventually make it via the vets. speaking of Posey, i figure his three rings and maybe someday reaching a couple of nice round numbers in the counting stats will eventually get him there.

Something published just last month:

http://www.cooperstowncred.com/will-ted-simmons-ever-make-hall-fame/

1971-1980	BA	HR	RBI	 H	 2B	 OBP	 SLG	OPS+	oWAR
Bench	       .263	269	933	1309	241	.348	.479	130	46.0
Simmons	       .301	169	902	1631	324	.367	.466	131	45.3

I realize there's a big advantage to Bench defensively (although Simmons' defense was supposedly much better than the general view at the time), but I don't think that comparison is cherry-picking; both guys are thought of primarily as '70s players.

James actually just started a new round of historical rankings a few days ago (why, I'm not sure). His 25 greatest catchers:

http://phildellio.tripod.com/catchers.jpg

Don't ask me to explain the rankings. One note: players are given credit for their entire careers (i.e., not just the games/years as a catcher).

i always forget about Jorge Posada for some reason.

gene tenace definitely deserves some love. .388 career OBP! (also born about five miles from where i grew up)

Berra drew MVP votes 15 consecutive years (with a 7-year Top-4 streak in the middle). Whatever you think of MVP voting, and even if there was some starstruck NY support towards the end, that's pretty damn impressive.

kind of stunning to see what ted williams hit in the three years yogi won mvp

did yogi win because of his defense or the fact that his team was better

I won't even bother comparing: Williams, Mays, Bonds...Trout--they all lost MVPs to the we-can't-give-it-to-him-every-year syndrome.

I think Arrieta might be Mike Scott or somebody like that--long way away, I'd say.

good guess there, clem -- as a Cubs fan i was glad to have Jake there for his peak but i always kinda worried/suspected he would turn into a pumpkin eventually.

it's funny abt Bonds because for awhile there they did give it to him every year, but only because he was so undeniable. it overlapped w/Randy Johnson getting the Cy four years in a row, too.

(xpost) Thanks--but right after a couple of terrible guesses: "Not that big on Greinke yet. 40% of his career WAR was compiled in two seasons; other than that, one season a little over 5.0. See very little chance for Lester."

i think verlaner's 3000th K came on a swinging strike in the dirt kole calhoun ended up beating to first base?

http://blogs.fangraphs.com/brian-mccanns-great-career-and-fascinating-hall-of-fame-case/

Haven't read it, but, again, you're into Sundberg/Boone/McCarver territory again. I just don't see it.

Mccann doesn’t deserve to be in the hof because we don’t need to celebrate any more redasses

McCarver doesn't turn up on McCaan's BR comps, but they're relatively close in WAR:

McCaan - 31.8 for his career, 7.6 of that for defense
McCarver - 28.3 for his career, 6.4 of that for defense

They both played in the postseason alot: 143 PA for McCaan, 103 for McCarver. (McCarver's postseason presence greater in the context of era.) McCaan drew MVP support twice, McCarver once--but McCarver finished second. They both have names that begin with McC.

don't think elite framing was a McCarver skill

mccann never won a gold glove, which is the true arbiter of defense

I'm a little slow on statistical shifts, so I'm not sure if I want to start inducting catchers into the HOF whose biggest selling point is pitch-framing. Putting that aside, though, if McCarver had been great at that too, would analysts know? Is that extracted from traditional stats?

no, we'd need Statcast-type data from that era

(afaik)

Tim being 2nd in MVP voting is craaazy tho, even tho he had his best year by far in '67

mccann, yadi, russell martin and kurt suzuki all got massive boosts in defensive fWAR in 2008 (when the framing metrics kicked in). suzuki immediately plummeted the following season (tbf, 2008 was also his best CS% season). martin's went down 50% in 2009. mccann and yadi remained high for a few years, then spent a few years 50% lower, and now are still a bit above average.

framing is obviously only one component of a catcher's defensive value, but it also seems like one that should neither vary much from year to year nor fade dramatically with age. (maybe i'm wrong there?)

my other complaint is that WAR is supposed to enable us to compare players across eras/ballparks/offensive climates/etc -- and if framing is this huge a factor, we cannot retcon the catchers of the past because we don't have the data. there are simply catchers before 2008 and catchers after 2008, and it should be clearly stated that they are not comparable.

according to fWAR, mccann was 0.1 win less valuable in 2008 than albert pujols, who hit .357/.462/.653. that is possible, but it's not obvious why.

and fwiw, we know that the clubs have more advanced data than is publicly available, and good framing catchers do not seem especially valued in the market -- at least not enough to pay a premium for it

(xpost) Both McCarver and winner Cepeda were well behind Aaron/Santo/Clemente in WAR. That was just before I started watching baseball...The only thing I know is that there was a mystique attached to those Cardinals teams, partly tied in with racial issues of the day. Hard to gauge that stuff through the fog of time. The Cardinals dominated MVP voting that year: 7 of the top 17 vote-getters.

I was thinking Lance Parrish might be a good analog for McCann. The list on Baseball Reference looks about right.

Brian McCann Similar Batters

Jorge Posada (894.9)
Lance Parrish (891.0)
Bill Freehan (879.3)
Javy Lopez (868.9)
Benito Santiago (860.5)
Jason Varitek (847.9)
Russell Martin (839.7)
Ernie Lombardi (831.1) *
Darrell Porter (830.2)
Sherm Lollar (827.8)

and fwiw, we know that the clubs have more advanced data than is publicly available, and good framing catchers do not seem especially valued in the market -- at least not enough to pay a premium for it

― mookieproof, Tuesday, October 15, 2019 4:08 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

There is two things I want to mention: 1, I think we nerds ignore how much salaries are determined by marketability rather than advanced metrics. 2, undervaluing by ownership might just be more sinister than discussions about skill evaluations.

Absolutely agree that it is getting frustrating WAR allows for less and less catchers across different eras/ballparks/offensive factors etc.

As for '67-68 Cardinals' "mystique"... the reason they dominated MVP voting is that the BBWAA seemed even lazier when there was a 10-team single pennant race. ie 1) pennant winner 2) basic counting stats 3) "intangibles" that could be made up on the spot. Ballot done.

While they were one of the more integrated teams to win at that point, I find the '50s Dodgers and '70s Pirates more compelling on that score.

Salaries are also determined by star power (sells merch/seats) which is why teams tend to overpay for over-the-hill talent.

I'll keep saying it until you guys ban me: defensive WAR is fool's gold. It pains me how much the BBWAA have relied/will rely on such a flawed metric for end of year (and HOF!) votes.

speaking of banning, who are the ILB mod(s)? just the dearly departed steve shasta?

I'll keep saying it until you guys ban me: defensive WAR is fool's gold. It pains me how much the BBWAA have relied/will rely on such a flawed metric for end of year (and HOF!) votes.

― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Wednesday, October 16, 2019 11:49 AM (nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Do you mean that we will never figure out good metrics for defensive evaluation or that right now those evaluations are inadequate?

i don't think defensive WAR is a bedrock stat for the writers; it is a factor among many in which they judge a player's defense

That McCann/Pujols '08 fWAR thing above is...

I don’t really trust any of the defensive catching metrics

shouting at guys who jog to first on pop-ups counts as an extra out, which fWAR accounts for.

The '64-'68 Cardinals had mystique--deserved or otherwise, that's just a fact. I was aware of that as a young fan in the early '70s, having read Roger Angell's accounts of the three World Series they were in. The Dodgers of the '50s had more, sure--tied in with a certain book--but the Cardinals had their own.

http://media1.fdncms.com/riverfronttimes/imager/u/blog/2573864/si_comparison_covers.jpg?cb=1454773020

so, cc sabathia

Epic career, but no. He had a Cy Young and made it to 3,000 Ks - best thing he had going for him was spending 10 years on the Yankees. Got him a lot of wins and post season games. But he never dominated or lead in much else aside from just pitching a lot. If he’d spent the last 10 years on the Twins, I don’t think he would be getting the same hof attention.

One man's "mystique" is another's "lotta press."

CC fairly close to Don Sutton's BWAR, while pitching a third less innings.

close comp to Drysdale too

Are you saying the Cardinals didn't have it or that it doesn't exist at all? A lot of press could just as easily explain Babe Ruth or Michael Jordan.

Obviously, Sutton's in for the 300 wins--if he'd fallen short, he'd probably be out there with Tommy John and Jim Kaat. (Sabermetrics rescued Bert Blyleven; I doubt that would have happened with Sutton, who's ahead of John in WAR but still short of 70.0.) Maybe, if WAR sticks around, a widely recognized benchmark will be established--70 seems to be the number right now for Jaffe-types. Sabathia's at 62.5, right where Kaat is. I'm on the fence with CC, and I think he'll be one of those guys who starts in the 40-50% range, and then, who knows.

Drysdale's in for...mystique!