2020 Democratic presidential primary

Sorry, y'all, I meant this one: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6417332-FINAL19357-NBCWSJ-September-Democratic-Primary.html

xp: You are missing the point that there are a lot of people in this country who think brown children belong in jail

my only fear is that I think she's really ill-suited to battle Trump in the media - if the Pocahantas thing is any indication, he'll throw wild haymakers and dangle all sorts of bait and she is liable to take it rather than knock it back.

― Οὖτις, Wednesday, September 18, 2019 11:36 AM (forty-one minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

fwiw he's still doing this to her, but (to the media's credit i guess?) they've stopped reporting on it, and she's certainly not responding.

disaffected New Yorkers who are miffed about not getting True Socialism into the White House

Clinton got 59.0% of NY State's vote in 2016 to Trump's 36.5%. I don't see a ton of miffiness there (although Obama got 63% in both of his elections, but a slightly lower raw vote total).

black women will vote for the Democrat, so yes
latinos, I assume, will vote for the Democrat, so yes
younger people, at least those old enough to have experienced the last election as a voter who also identify as politically left, seem more likely to lean towards the Democrat, so yes

it didn't work out this way for Hillary tho, turnout in all those groups was down from the Obama elections iirc and that is likely what cost her the election.

Warren was great arguing with this Planet Money dickwad 10 years ago
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2009/05/hear_elizabeth_warren_checks_i.html

Everybody focused on the poor white uneducated men not turning out for Hillary in WI, MI, etc. but if the turnout in those other groups had stayed steady it would have compensated

xp

(Clinton also got at least 75% in each of the four NYC boroughs that are relatively integrated) xxp

likely what cost her the election.

― Οὖτις, Wednesday, September 18, 2019 9:24 AM (sixteen minutes ago)

what cost her the election was getting fewer electoral votes there's not one solitary tipping point

Alfred: Yeah, I saw that poll. She's definitely jumped in the polls since mid-summer, but it seems like she's been hovering around 20% for a few weeks. NBC News has her at 25%, but it's hard to know whether that is evidence of an upward climb or just an outlier. That said, I think her strategy at this point is just to be consistent, so I would expect any growth to be gradual. Seems like she is benefiting from the shine coming off Harris rather than picking off Biden support.

Ugh that Planet Money clip! All that talk about finding “good smart guys, like Statesmen” to run the TARP program.

I think her strategy at this point is just to be consistent, so I would expect any growth to be gradual. Seems like she is benefiting from the shine coming off Harris rather than picking off Biden support.

I think winning Biden supporters is gonna be the last thing that happens - in some weird way I think those people are gonna be the absolute diehardiest of the diehards, even worse than Bernie's army of assholes. Biden's gonna just keep tripping over his dick and shitting in his own mouth and none of it will make the slightest difference, until eventually Warren has locked up basically everyone else and then, only then, will the dam break and people will say, "You know what? Biden kinda...sucks. We should go with this Warren lady instead."

Biden's support will likely crater when he underperforms in Iowa and New Hampshire. If he pulls out the black vote in NC then he will stay in it for the long, grueling slog.

Yes, at this point she's pulling wavering Harris, Buttigieg, and maybe Sanders voters (I doubt the last).

i thought most of biden's voters had bernie as a second choice?

seems like people are still willing to assume demographics are destiny, and obviously the dems will win in 2020. you can assume that latinos will vote against trump, or at least about 70% of those that choose to vote will (according to recent polling), but what good is that if their turnout is depressed, as it was in 2016?

even worse than Bernie's army of assholes

u say the sweetest things

Bernie is basically a cult of personality w too much baggage for the wider party at this point

oh okay

am I wrong? he seems incapable of broadening his appeal/his numbers aren't moving much

lol no that was Hillary

let's wait for the voting

nah let's vote now

seriously this whole election can't be over soon enough for me

idk you and morbs are both likely to keep posting afterwards so I don't know what's gonna change

no Shakey has to stop if Bernie wins!

lol

These people seem sane and convertable:

Warren is not in the race to win the presidency. She's in the race to make sure Bernie doesn't. If you believe otherwise you are a mark.

— Leslie Lee III (@leslieleeiii) September 18, 2019

i see we are cherrypicking nuts from Twitter well i am sold

honestly surprised + heartened that you don't agree with him

how many "people" is Leslie Lee III? I guess three.

well everyone knows Biden is in the race to stop Bernie

as for "cults of personality," they can often be useful in becoming president and staying there, given some of my liberal acquaintances' ongoing deranged worship of the last Democratic First Couple.

These people seem sane and convertable:

The world is full of people who make poor use of whatever brains God gave them. I daresay that quite a few of them are enthusiastic about whatever candidate you most prefer and you'd purely hate to be associated with them in any more intimate manner. Bernie has his share of cult-followers. So did Obama. So did HRC. It comes with the territory.

you're right there're all totally crazy, cult of personality followers and not convertible and to any other candidate who are all totally just as good totally. thats why its imperative that Bernie gets the nomination because otherwise...

We must bring back Bob Dole, the one presidential candidate who never inspired a single crazy cult loyalist.

you'd hate to see purity politics get in the way of nominating the candidate whose voters can sway the election.

Yes! I'm all for having Dem "centrists" consider lefties a bloc they must win over with their nominee or their party loses elections. Only problem is their sense of entitlement to our votes overrides any pragmatism (their favorite word!) about actually wooing us. https://t.co/6cmelZIYb4

— vastleft (@vastleft) September 18, 2019

DJP otm III

I think the *perception* of Warren's momentum is surging -- the Chait piece, the Jim Cramer freakout, the attention from the Washington Square rally -- but recent polls haven't necessarily borne this out.

She got 15k in Seattle three weeks ago (and had to relocate 3 miles to outdoors from the 7,000 cap theatre she'd booked), 20k in NYC this week. That's real people showing up. If these IRL events were getting the same amount of airtime and discussion airtime as Trump's incoherent rallies, the perception would be bigger still.

how much does America love grandmas?

one lost an election fairly recently

― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius),

one won an election fairly recently

Yes, at this point she's pulling wavering Harris, Buttigieg, and maybe Sanders voters (I doubt the last).

There's no need for prospective Sanders voters to switch at this point. It's also very possible for voters to like both of them and not be 100% decided on how they're going to maybe bother to vote IN NINE MONTHS TIME when we don't even know who the candidates will be.

? no grandma has won the presidency

Iowa caucus is in January/February

no grandma has won the presidency, but sic only said that one 'won an election'. or sic may have been making the point that HRC won millions more votes than Trump in 2016 - but ofc the 'real' election is held by the college of electors.

Of all three big candidates, at this point, I believe it is Warren who seems the most likely to build a big tent coalition representing the ideological diversity of the democratic party. Biden is too centrist, Sanders is too populist. This might be or not be a good thing I don't know. But I think this is why the perception of her success might not be totally represented in polls.

Biden may or may not be centrist, because the center has diminished to the point where it is increasingly difficult to identify. Biden's perceived strength is also his big weakness: he has no program, no agenda, no ideas, no vision, only a vaguely warm and fuzzy feeling that he is a nice man who won't upset things. His current appeal is all about what he isn't and what he won't do and the hope that this tepid quality will allow 'all the people who aren't like me' to vote for him and get rid of Trump.

xp Yes, it makes sense to me that voters currently supporting Harris, Buttigieg, and O'Rourke are more likely to eventually move in Warren's direction than to Biden or Sanders. Among the top 5 (Biden, Warren, Sanders, Harris, Buttigieg), she's the #2 choice for those who rank Harris and Buttigieg #1: https://www.vox.com/2019/9/12/20860985/poll-democratic-primary-ranked-choice-warren-biden

i have no idea what "too populist" means

xp Aimless

I disagree he has no vision, he has nothing original or fresh to offer but I think he has a very clear vision of his policies goals. One can argue that his vision is stuck in time or plain terrible, which is my position really but it is there. The sharp contrast between his ideas and Warren/Sanders on health access is crucial, the way it plays in polls is crucial. Dismissing those differences and claiming his popularity is nothing other 'than name recognition' or 'blandness' is not listening to tons of democrats voters who have a say, and that's never good in an electoral situation. In any case, I doubt any serious campaign strategist would be as naive as to dismiss Biden policy proposals as 'non-existent'.

no idea what "too populist" means

people in the usa are ceaselessly taught to fear any government programs that might seek to redistribute wealth and equalize the resources available to all citizens. consequently, most usa citizens do fear them, at least in the abstract. but especially when they imagine such programs are benefitting someone other than themselves. and even more if those people are brown-skinned.

which is why Bernie seems to always go out of his way to talk about poor white people but ... yeah what he said

Biden's policy positions are little more than "let's not rock the boat". The ACA already exists, so the ACA has his approval, but if it did not exist you can be sure he would never suggest creating it.

yeah Biden's policy positions are "let's return to the status quo of 4 years ago" which, frankly, is not good enough for anybody (I would hope)

I don't believe in preempting candidates based on what The Voters will allegedly find enticing (ie Family Feud)