2020 Democratic presidential primary

She's been yelled at and yelled at corporate hacks for almost 20 years, and Trump was just another one until 2016.

tbh I feel like Kamala would be the best in those debates but I don't want her to get the nom

feel like the ability to "take on Trump" is kind of overrated for the Dems, I thought a ton of polling showed that Hillary handedly won all 3 debates but it didn't really matter a whole lot

I wouldn't be surprised if Trump refuses to debate tbh

tbh the only context where "taking on Trump" matters is one where we reintroduce dueling back into the political sphere

There was one part of Warren's Colbert interview I didn't like - when he started poking at her about "will taxes go up? why won't you talk about taxes going up?", she kind of shut down for a few seconds and it was a little off-putting. It's a dumb question anyway, but I wish her answer would be something like "well, if we want to keep taxes from going up, we'll just have to buy one fewer bomber that year" instead of talking about "costs" going down.

I agree that "taking on Trump" should not be the goal - it accepts a frame that Trump is popular and must be argued against, when in fact that's not true at all. Most people strongly dislike him, and arguing with him shouldn't be about defeating his "ideas," it should be about saying, "Look, we all know this is a huge problem, so let me come in and fix it."

which is why I didn't say debates, I said "in the media" - because all the namecalling and shit-talking is going to take place on Twitter, at press conferences, and in environments where Trump can avoid being directly challenged or made to look foolish

xp

The strategy should be "energize people who didn't vote/empower people who couldn't vote" IMO because the people who voted for Trump will get themselves back to the polls to vote for him again; those who haven't repudiated him by now are lost causes not worth convincing.

xps

i don't have any worries about how any of the democratic candidates would do in a debate - like you said, they don't matter much. the people who watch them are so uninformed that they no longer tell who is publicly humiliating themselves.

i do worry about how candidates would respond to the constant barrage of trolling from trump and his media pals. shit like "Pocahantas". i trust that she can learn from her mistakes and will improve

like who the fuck cares what a moron who voted to have his government services taken away so Ivanka could buy an echidna has to say about what our government should or shouldn't be doing

There was one part of Warren's Colbert interview I didn't like - when he started poking at her about "will taxes go up? why won't you talk about taxes going up?", she kind of shut down for a few seconds and it was a little off-putting. It's a dumb question anyway, but I wish her answer would be something like "well, if we want to keep taxes from going up, we'll just have to buy one fewer bomber that year" instead of talking about "costs" going down.

DJP otm

xp

No way Trump does any debates.

The strategy should be "energize people who didn't vote/empower people who couldn't vote" IMO because the people who voted for Trump will get themselves back to the polls to vote for him again; those who haven't repudiated him by now are lost causes not worth convincing.

― brigadier pudding (DJP), Wednesday, September 18, 2019

boom

To that end - is Warren gonna turn out black women, latinos and younger people? idk

xp

At least we only have 3 more months to get the results of this ilx poll.

Alfred, I think it's this poll people were talking about: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/nbc-wsj-poll-biden-leads-dem-2020-field-warren-s-n1055511 (the one you posted is a month old). It is for now a bit of an outlier, but combined with the Working Families Party endorsement it definitely makes it seem like she has 'momentum' these days. Tomorrow a new poll will show her at 14%, and the discussion will change.

how much does America love grandmas?

one lost an election fairly recently

To that end - is Warren gonna turn out black women, latinos and younger people? idk

black women will vote for the Democrat, so yes
latinos, I assume, will vote for the Democrat, so yes
younger people, at least those old enough to have experienced the last election as a voter who also identify as politically left, seem more likely to lean towards the Democrat, so yes

I think focusing on disaffected New Yorkers who are miffed about not getting True Socialism into the White House misses the fact that there are a large number of equally progressive people spread across the country who vote much more pragmatically because they have to.

idk I thought it was kind of smart of her to not say "taxes will go up" b/c she knows that clip will be played over and over again should she win the nom. I do think pointing out the gross amount of military spending is a good idea but even better is pointing out the insane amount of money taxpayers are forking over to jail brown children

Sorry, y'all, I meant this one: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6417332-FINAL19357-NBCWSJ-September-Democratic-Primary.html

xp: You are missing the point that there are a lot of people in this country who think brown children belong in jail

my only fear is that I think she's really ill-suited to battle Trump in the media - if the Pocahantas thing is any indication, he'll throw wild haymakers and dangle all sorts of bait and she is liable to take it rather than knock it back.

― Οὖτις, Wednesday, September 18, 2019 11:36 AM (forty-one minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

fwiw he's still doing this to her, but (to the media's credit i guess?) they've stopped reporting on it, and she's certainly not responding.

disaffected New Yorkers who are miffed about not getting True Socialism into the White House

Clinton got 59.0% of NY State's vote in 2016 to Trump's 36.5%. I don't see a ton of miffiness there (although Obama got 63% in both of his elections, but a slightly lower raw vote total).

black women will vote for the Democrat, so yes
latinos, I assume, will vote for the Democrat, so yes
younger people, at least those old enough to have experienced the last election as a voter who also identify as politically left, seem more likely to lean towards the Democrat, so yes

it didn't work out this way for Hillary tho, turnout in all those groups was down from the Obama elections iirc and that is likely what cost her the election.

Warren was great arguing with this Planet Money dickwad 10 years ago
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2009/05/hear_elizabeth_warren_checks_i.html

Everybody focused on the poor white uneducated men not turning out for Hillary in WI, MI, etc. but if the turnout in those other groups had stayed steady it would have compensated

xp

(Clinton also got at least 75% in each of the four NYC boroughs that are relatively integrated) xxp

likely what cost her the election.

― Οὖτις, Wednesday, September 18, 2019 9:24 AM (sixteen minutes ago)

what cost her the election was getting fewer electoral votes there's not one solitary tipping point

Alfred: Yeah, I saw that poll. She's definitely jumped in the polls since mid-summer, but it seems like she's been hovering around 20% for a few weeks. NBC News has her at 25%, but it's hard to know whether that is evidence of an upward climb or just an outlier. That said, I think her strategy at this point is just to be consistent, so I would expect any growth to be gradual. Seems like she is benefiting from the shine coming off Harris rather than picking off Biden support.

Ugh that Planet Money clip! All that talk about finding “good smart guys, like Statesmen” to run the TARP program.

I think her strategy at this point is just to be consistent, so I would expect any growth to be gradual. Seems like she is benefiting from the shine coming off Harris rather than picking off Biden support.

I think winning Biden supporters is gonna be the last thing that happens - in some weird way I think those people are gonna be the absolute diehardiest of the diehards, even worse than Bernie's army of assholes. Biden's gonna just keep tripping over his dick and shitting in his own mouth and none of it will make the slightest difference, until eventually Warren has locked up basically everyone else and then, only then, will the dam break and people will say, "You know what? Biden kinda...sucks. We should go with this Warren lady instead."

Biden's support will likely crater when he underperforms in Iowa and New Hampshire. If he pulls out the black vote in NC then he will stay in it for the long, grueling slog.

Yes, at this point she's pulling wavering Harris, Buttigieg, and maybe Sanders voters (I doubt the last).

i thought most of biden's voters had bernie as a second choice?

seems like people are still willing to assume demographics are destiny, and obviously the dems will win in 2020. you can assume that latinos will vote against trump, or at least about 70% of those that choose to vote will (according to recent polling), but what good is that if their turnout is depressed, as it was in 2016?

even worse than Bernie's army of assholes

u say the sweetest things

Bernie is basically a cult of personality w too much baggage for the wider party at this point

oh okay

am I wrong? he seems incapable of broadening his appeal/his numbers aren't moving much

lol no that was Hillary

let's wait for the voting

nah let's vote now

seriously this whole election can't be over soon enough for me

idk you and morbs are both likely to keep posting afterwards so I don't know what's gonna change

no Shakey has to stop if Bernie wins!

lol

These people seem sane and convertable:

Warren is not in the race to win the presidency. She's in the race to make sure Bernie doesn't. If you believe otherwise you are a mark.

— Leslie Lee III (@leslieleeiii) September 18, 2019

i see we are cherrypicking nuts from Twitter well i am sold

honestly surprised + heartened that you don't agree with him

how many "people" is Leslie Lee III? I guess three.

well everyone knows Biden is in the race to stop Bernie