2020 Democratic presidential primary

not going to sweat a second derivative in September tho

Bernie has a ceiling, Biden's support is thin and old and tired and predicated on a basically false premise, Warren is the only one showing momentum at the moment.

I think Warren’s upward momentum is slowing down a bit

― Non stop chantar (crüt),

Quite the opposite.

I feel like she’ll pick up a lot of the Buttigeig and Kamala dorks when they inevitably drop out. Maybe not their money, but surely the primary voters.

I mean, you know she's doing spectacular because the MSNBC hosts are starting to panic at the idea of a liberal nominee.

damn, she seems to keep stepping up on talking orderly sense about the long terrible arc of the past 40 yrs and the “I AM NOT AFRAID” line—i think this combo can cross over.

my only fear is that I think she's really ill-suited to battle Trump in the media - if the Pocahantas thing is any indication, he'll throw wild haymakers and dangle all sorts of bait and she is liable to take it rather than knock it back.

as she staffs up as the going gets going I assume someone will help her run the No Drama Obama playbook

idk, the "black guy that can't get angry" dynamic (old white person: "look, he's not scary after all!") isn't something she can really deploy as an old white woman

warren was great on colbert last night.

I mean her policy stuff is generally on-point, but she is not "cool" (she shouldn't try to be, either; that would be even more embarassing)

xp

Colbert is a very sympathetic forum/audience

idk, the "black guy that can't get angry" dynamic (old white person: "look, he's not scary after all!") isn't something she can really deploy as an old white woman

No, but she can deploy the "settling down an irritable grandchild" playbook.

yeah, that might be her only angle.

how much does America love grandmas?

maybe she should just go full on Mom from Futurama

I mean her policy stuff is generally on-point, but she is not "cool" (she shouldn't try to be, either; that would be even more embarassing)

xp

I think the *perception* of Warren's momentum is surging -- the Chait piece, the Jim Cramer freakout, the attention from the Washington Square rally -- but recent polls haven't necessarily borne this out. Her numbers didn't change much after last week's debate. But it's possible that perceived momentum can shape actual momentum, and polls will probably be lagging indicators of that.

No she goes with orderly awareness, then pivots to what i guess is STRAIGHT-TALKY URGENCY. But she’s good at it imo.

my only fear is that I think she's really ill-suited to battle Trump in the media - if the Pocahantas thing is any indication, he'll throw wild haymakers and dangle all sorts of bait and she is liable to take it rather than knock it back.

I think that's been her only serious misstep so far and I feel like she's probably learned from it. idk if Trump yelling "POCAHANTAS!!" over and over is gonna do much and I think even the hardcore chuds are gonna have a hard time pretending to care about that

my only fear is that I think she's really ill-suited to battle Trump in the media

Corporate media's biggest reason to love Biden. I've seen no evidence that he can battle Trump, and seen no evidence that she can't.

jaymc, have you seen the Qunnipiac poll?. It was all the Twitter chatter yesterday.

the Washington Sq rally was a very sympathetic forum/audience.

Campaign rallies tend to be like that.

Trump and Biden arguing w each other would just be a mishmash of nonsensical garbage

xpost yeah, I was just making fun of the colbert post.

I've seen no evidence that he can battle Trump, and seen no evidence that she can't.

otm

warren is much, much smarter than biden or trump. we're still in the early days, it'll be interesting to see how she chooses to fight back when trump renews his focus on her

She's been yelled at and yelled at corporate hacks for almost 20 years, and Trump was just another one until 2016.

tbh I feel like Kamala would be the best in those debates but I don't want her to get the nom

feel like the ability to "take on Trump" is kind of overrated for the Dems, I thought a ton of polling showed that Hillary handedly won all 3 debates but it didn't really matter a whole lot

I wouldn't be surprised if Trump refuses to debate tbh

tbh the only context where "taking on Trump" matters is one where we reintroduce dueling back into the political sphere

There was one part of Warren's Colbert interview I didn't like - when he started poking at her about "will taxes go up? why won't you talk about taxes going up?", she kind of shut down for a few seconds and it was a little off-putting. It's a dumb question anyway, but I wish her answer would be something like "well, if we want to keep taxes from going up, we'll just have to buy one fewer bomber that year" instead of talking about "costs" going down.

I agree that "taking on Trump" should not be the goal - it accepts a frame that Trump is popular and must be argued against, when in fact that's not true at all. Most people strongly dislike him, and arguing with him shouldn't be about defeating his "ideas," it should be about saying, "Look, we all know this is a huge problem, so let me come in and fix it."

which is why I didn't say debates, I said "in the media" - because all the namecalling and shit-talking is going to take place on Twitter, at press conferences, and in environments where Trump can avoid being directly challenged or made to look foolish

xp

The strategy should be "energize people who didn't vote/empower people who couldn't vote" IMO because the people who voted for Trump will get themselves back to the polls to vote for him again; those who haven't repudiated him by now are lost causes not worth convincing.

xps

i don't have any worries about how any of the democratic candidates would do in a debate - like you said, they don't matter much. the people who watch them are so uninformed that they no longer tell who is publicly humiliating themselves.

i do worry about how candidates would respond to the constant barrage of trolling from trump and his media pals. shit like "Pocahantas". i trust that she can learn from her mistakes and will improve

like who the fuck cares what a moron who voted to have his government services taken away so Ivanka could buy an echidna has to say about what our government should or shouldn't be doing

There was one part of Warren's Colbert interview I didn't like - when he started poking at her about "will taxes go up? why won't you talk about taxes going up?", she kind of shut down for a few seconds and it was a little off-putting. It's a dumb question anyway, but I wish her answer would be something like "well, if we want to keep taxes from going up, we'll just have to buy one fewer bomber that year" instead of talking about "costs" going down.

DJP otm

xp

No way Trump does any debates.

The strategy should be "energize people who didn't vote/empower people who couldn't vote" IMO because the people who voted for Trump will get themselves back to the polls to vote for him again; those who haven't repudiated him by now are lost causes not worth convincing.

― brigadier pudding (DJP), Wednesday, September 18, 2019

boom

To that end - is Warren gonna turn out black women, latinos and younger people? idk

xp

At least we only have 3 more months to get the results of this ilx poll.

Alfred, I think it's this poll people were talking about: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/nbc-wsj-poll-biden-leads-dem-2020-field-warren-s-n1055511 (the one you posted is a month old). It is for now a bit of an outlier, but combined with the Working Families Party endorsement it definitely makes it seem like she has 'momentum' these days. Tomorrow a new poll will show her at 14%, and the discussion will change.

how much does America love grandmas?

one lost an election fairly recently

To that end - is Warren gonna turn out black women, latinos and younger people? idk

black women will vote for the Democrat, so yes
latinos, I assume, will vote for the Democrat, so yes
younger people, at least those old enough to have experienced the last election as a voter who also identify as politically left, seem more likely to lean towards the Democrat, so yes

I think focusing on disaffected New Yorkers who are miffed about not getting True Socialism into the White House misses the fact that there are a large number of equally progressive people spread across the country who vote much more pragmatically because they have to.

idk I thought it was kind of smart of her to not say "taxes will go up" b/c she knows that clip will be played over and over again should she win the nom. I do think pointing out the gross amount of military spending is a good idea but even better is pointing out the insane amount of money taxpayers are forking over to jail brown children

Sorry, y'all, I meant this one: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6417332-FINAL19357-NBCWSJ-September-Democratic-Primary.html

xp: You are missing the point that there are a lot of people in this country who think brown children belong in jail

my only fear is that I think she's really ill-suited to battle Trump in the media - if the Pocahantas thing is any indication, he'll throw wild haymakers and dangle all sorts of bait and she is liable to take it rather than knock it back.

― Οὖτις, Wednesday, September 18, 2019 11:36 AM (forty-one minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

fwiw he's still doing this to her, but (to the media's credit i guess?) they've stopped reporting on it, and she's certainly not responding.

disaffected New Yorkers who are miffed about not getting True Socialism into the White House

Clinton got 59.0% of NY State's vote in 2016 to Trump's 36.5%. I don't see a ton of miffiness there (although Obama got 63% in both of his elections, but a slightly lower raw vote total).

black women will vote for the Democrat, so yes
latinos, I assume, will vote for the Democrat, so yes
younger people, at least those old enough to have experienced the last election as a voter who also identify as politically left, seem more likely to lean towards the Democrat, so yes

it didn't work out this way for Hillary tho, turnout in all those groups was down from the Obama elections iirc and that is likely what cost her the election.