PMs change and lol we're all gonna die (but brexit will never end)

anyway its that lrb-ish style where the author inevitably alludes to their modest middle-class background that led to their going to oxbridge under the auspices of some widening-social-access moment in education when such things were less remarkable than now

"I was not unaware of [subsequently prominent cabinet minister/future PM] at the time"

anyway I think he is definitely the pick of the novara crew so I don't know why I'm being rude. Definitely better than MH who is literally pointless

I like james meadway, who is not novara but novara-adjacent

ex-labour leadership office too iirc

https://www.ft.com/content/0e99fc98-4872-11e8-8ae9-4b5ddcca99b3

The mellifluous James Butler is its co-founder. Adopted through the Catholic Children’s Society, the 31-year-old from south London worked in a series of night clubs before studying English at Oxford university. “I feel I come from a tradition of communism that got buried . . . like Rosa Luxemburg.”

Too soon

"one of the less glamorous colleges" yeah?

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 31% (+10)
LAB: 28% (-3)
LDEM: 19% (+6)
BREX: 15% (-4)
GRN: 2% (-3)

via @Panelbase, 05 - 06 Sep
**Chgs. w/ May**

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) September 7, 2019

more bad news for boris

May was polling 40+ before election '17.

Another one:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/07/tories-extend-lead-over-labour-to-10-despite-chaotic-week

The Conservatives are up 3 points to 35% of the vote, while the Brexit party is down 3 points to 13%. The Liberal Democrats are up 2 points to 17% while Labour is down 1 point to 25%.

Tories have an 8pt lead in the poll of polls. I can live with that. May on was 40+ going into election '17.

Dominic Cummings reacts to there being no general election
1/2 pic.twitter.com/vAa5UWwH9c

— Darren 🏃🚴🍺🐄 (@dirk1978) September 7, 2019

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ED4CNNoWwAYqkIk?format=png&name=small

lest we forget

I’m not fussed on the numbers rn tbh. Election hasn’t been called & it’s not as if we’re not seeing and commenting on a horrible bad week for the government being glossed over by the BBC. Come dissolution, that advantage goes. And anecdotally I know young Tories who are planning to vote LD and say the same of their friends - even the Leave ones.

Things are gearing up since the prorogation of Parliament but once a campaign gets into full swing you’ll have greater engagement and interest and people will have to seriously think about who they give their vote to. I’d expect the numbers to shift.

also, broadcasters legally bound not to be duplicitous shits in their reporting of each party’s manifestos etc

The leave vote is a problem. Say they get their majority, do no deal, people die, chaos. No deal isn’t an end state in and of itself. They will have to sit down with the EU. The EU are likely going to push over the WA or something like it.

What’s the rationale then? The glorious exit has been achieved, yet buccaneering independent Britain has to kowtow to the evil EU. What’s the message then?

Also, Tory numbers are bound to collapse when Bojo can't deliver Brexit, no?

Leave vote turned on May, they’re turning on Boris, and they’ll destroy anyone that follows.

Got to set up the Dolchstoßlegende in advance.

And anecdotally I know young Tories who are planning to vote LD and say the same of their friends - even the Leave ones.

V curious about the latter. Are they more bothered about Johnson or just how it's all been handled over the last 3 years?

(C&ped for bonus pretentiousness)

Not sure what happens when the Prime Minister is in chokey when an election's called tbf.

xxp the former mostly - but it’s his cabinet too, it’s full of people who aren’t socially liberal and that plus the prorogation & intent to crash out has done it

Boris' strategy was a good idea - and has worked on some Brexit Party voters - but I reckon they fucked a lot of the execution of it. Basically if there is an extension beyond 31st I reckon Boris would resign.

Otherwise there is nothing in the numbers as they are plugged in through our wonderful FPTP system so what would be more useful is to see constituency level polling like in Scotland to get a better idea.

sadlol

Great to spend some time with these two great ladies! Gisela Stuart and Kate Hoey #girlpower! pic.twitter.com/U5ALgnxi5V

— Arlene Foster (@DUPleader) September 6, 2019

May got basically all the leave vote in 2017 - UKIP collapsed and they were the main beneficiaries. But two and a half years on things have changed, stakes are far higher and everything is polarised. Smaller parties got squeezed last time because it was such an important election and Farron was awful, so interesting to see if that continues in a GE campaign.

profoundly cursed

er, xp

re: Butler he is a pretty good analyst. I do learn a few things from him and its great that he writes regularly for the LRB blog. Frankly they need him as the likes of Runciman just don't cut it. Also he does something Perry Anderson often doesn't do, which is to pretend this country even exists (I don't blame PA but most of us do live here).

No argument with that but even the "three years off sick and retire at 50" line was a v Toryish dig

This line doesn't appear in the print version, for some reason. She likes the swear words, doesn't she, MH? Pretty blummen shocking. I'd rather read Grace Dent.

Love too #girlpower when you can be prosecuted for buying abortion pills in NI

Speaking of

“Ireland: Our Cuba?” A Tory MP authored pamphlet from the 70s pic.twitter.com/7wpxPDUhGR

— Jon Stone (@joncstone) September 7, 2019

The former Director of Public Prosecutions Lord MacDonald has told Sky News Prime Minister Boris Johnson could go to prison if he refuses to delay Brexit

— Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) September 7, 2019

martyring yourself... probably good for one half of your coalition. the LD half of that coalition will think you've gone off the deep-end though

if he's going to keep on ratcheting things up like this, then he needs to figure out how to put on enough votes to counteract the losses to the LDs and SNP

Well this is the thing. There aren’t that many seats.

those polling numbers for may were extraordinary - I do worry that this time JC will be more of a known quantity but... at the same time, I think the effect of 'personalities' on campaigns is a little over-stated.

you saw the poll bounce last time when the manifesto came out - you'd hope a more expansive offer next time round would have a corresponding positive effect

Good Stephen Bush bit on JRM: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2019/09/conservatives-are-taking-big-risk-jacob-rees-mogg

Pretty sure the more people see of Johnson, outside of the comfort zone he's been cossetted in for his entire political career, the more people will think, "I'm not voting for this clown".

Yeah it's been interesting watching pro leave talkers trying to position Boris as their strong man. He just doesn't fit.

Amber Rudd has apparently resigned the whip.

Keep 'em coming

Never a dull moment.

mmmmmmmm lovely

Niiiiice

I have resigned from Cabinet and surrendered the Conservative Whip.

I cannot stand by as good, loyal moderate Conservatives are expelled.

I have spoken to the PM and my Association Chairman to explain.

I remain committed to the One Nation values that drew me into politics. pic.twitter.com/kYmZHbLMES

— Amber Rudd MP (@AmberRuddHR) September 7, 2019

she'd have lost her seat anyway, but loving it.