What Do You MENA (Middle East, North Africa and other nearby Political Hotspots) 2019

every sizeable ex-colonial "nation" has no organically developed national identity and has many large groups of "citizens" who are disaffected, disenfranchised and held down

Pretty much the experience of Western Europe, for 2 to 6 centuries prior to national unification. We shouldn't be surprised if humans in the developing world behave much like humans in developing Europe. Nations require a lot of suppression of competing feudal and tribal interests.

XP sleeve: Personally, I wouldn't have managed independence as the Europeans did. I would have defined the smallest feasible voting districts with respect to natural geographic borders, called for elections to transition governments, and then partition based on the electoral results, so each ethnic/religious/political minority that had any local majorities would have its own state. The Balkan model. There would be a natural Fulani nation stretching from Mali to Sudan. The Pakistan/India border would be a mess, but so were the demographics.

This is totally relevant to the current situation in MENA, particularly in Iraq, Syria and Palestine. The post-colonial nations don't reflect underlying demographics, and they've suffered as a result.

Above, I'm just saying the success of post-colonial states in independence has had a lot to do with how well colonial nations provided infrastructure and transfered models of governance. I don't think its a coincidence that some of the modern nations with the poorest outcomes had the misfortune of being ruled by competing European powers in succession, or by fascist Italy.

Pretty much the experience of Western Europe, for 2 to 6 centuries prior to national unification.

True up to a point, but in Europe national entities evolved and amalgamated purely based upon local European interests, through shifting alliances, local conquests, assimilation and integration, or violent rejection and expulsion. It was an organic, self-generating process. Europe did this to itself.

The ex-colonial nations had their present borders imposed purely by external western interests and those western interests still exert pressure upon them to maintain those borders and to conform their policies to western needs and desires. Thus, we are heavily implicated in the brutality and violent repressions exercised there.

This is extraordinary even by the US’ standards:

Having failed at piracy, the US resorts to outright blackmail—deliver us Iran’s oil and receive several million dollars or be sanctioned yourself.

Sounds very similar to the Oval Office invitation I received a few weeks back.

It is becoming a pattern.#BTeamGangsters pic.twitter.com/B1oQTLghWZ

— Javad Zarif (@JZarif) September 4, 2019

Having failed in the attempt to get the EU to apply sanctions they’re not party to wrt Iranian oil tankers, captains are apparently being offered bribes to pilot ships into jurisdictions that will.

^ Those tactics would only be justified between nations actively at war. Basically, they are acts of war.

70% of Iranian oil goes to China, Japan, India, S.Korea, and Turkey. I wonder which nation(s) on the Hormuz/S. China route are so beholden to US/Saudi Arabia they'd play along. Maybe Indonesia?

Worth keeping an eye on Abqaiq, largest oil processing plant in the world, responsible for 6.8 Mbpd of production, and attacked in 2008 by Al Qaeda.

Multiple fires (now under control), reports of gunfire. If I wanted to undermine the Saudi state (from within or without), this facility would be my target.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZP3OTW9K-y0

Houthi drone use is interesting. Low tech having decent enough results.

Worrying prospects obviously in many respects, while SA deserve everything sent at them imo

BBC

The Houthi spokesman, Yahya Sarea, told al-Masirah TV, which is owned by the Houthi movement and is based in Beirut, that further attacks could be expected in the future.

He said Saturday's attack was one of the biggest operations the Houthi forces had undertaken inside Saudi Arabia and was carried out in "co-operation with the honourable people inside the kingdom".

Houthi collaborating with the Sh'ia of Qatif. Driving cargo trucks with Qasef-1 (or better) drones to within 150 km (and probably a lot less) of Abqaiq.

Saudi Arabia is going to finish demolishing Al-Awamiyah with artillery. And if you thought it was a police state before...

I'll be keeping my tanks topped off.

Who didn't think Saudi Arabia was a police state?

He is not implying that anyone didn't think that.

No streetview on Buqaiq/Abqaiq, but the video appears to come from the rooftop of the Hardee's on the west side of King Abdulaziz Rd from the compound. It's remarkable looking at satelite maps how easy it would be to target the critical elements like the ones around 25°55'54.8 N 49°40'43.3 E.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-attack-drones/u-s-drone-strike-kills-30-pine-nut-farm-workers-in-afghanistan-idUSKBN1W40NW?

business as usual

Erdogan has vowed to create a buffer zone inside Syria by pushing back Kurdish militants and settling Syrian refugees in the country’s north. Turkey suspects that the U.S. is backing Kurdish aspirations for self-rule in Syria and is prepared to use military force to prevent what it perceives as an attempt to redraw the region’s map.

Erdogan has vowed to create a buffer zone inside Syria by pushing back Kurdish militants and settling Syrian refugees in the country’s north. Turkey suspects that the U.S. is backing Kurdish aspirations for self-rule in Syria and is prepared to use military force to prevent what it perceives as an attempt to redraw the region’s map.

Erdogan has vowed to create a buffer zone inside Syria by pushing back Kurdish militants and settling Syrian refugees in the country’s north. Turkey suspects that the U.S. is backing Kurdish aspirations for self-rule in Syria and is prepared to use military force to prevent what it perceives as an attempt to redraw the region’s map.

oops

The old Kurdish proverb comes to mind again: 'No friends but the mountains'. This time it's Trump's turn to fuck up the Kurds once again. Never mind they did the dirty work in defeating IS. This is giving nothing less than giving complete carte blanche to one of the worst dictators around, Erdogan, to kill thousands of Kurds. Appalling.

:(

I don't know what to say, it's just tragic.

Tragic but predictable.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_Towers_Istanbul

This must play a factor sadly

disgusting

nothing to worry about folks bigly brain is on it

As I have stated strongly before, and just to reiterate, if Turkey does anything that I, in my great and unmatched wisdom, consider to be off limits, I will totally destroy and obliterate the Economy of Turkey (I’ve done before!). They must, with Europe and others, watch over...

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 7, 2019

man FUUUUUUCK this guy

Yeah, that. Already dreaded the fucking monstrous Trump tweets popping up (not blaming you Carne tbh). It's a license to kill people and family and friends of mine and of people I know. Sick to the stomach.

When you lose heaven’s mandated...

Pat Robertson is "appalled" by Trump's decision to withdraw U.S. troops from northern Syria: "The President of the United States is in great danger of losing the mandate of Heaven if he permits this to happen." pic.twitter.com/YGeNYpbGrF

— Right Wing Watch (@RightWingWatch) October 7, 2019

these absolute fucking hobgoblins

It is hard to imagine the kind of will and toughness that keeps the Kurds intact in the face of so many enemies and so many betrayals. Or the kind of psychological damage it does to maintain that will and toughness.

I recognize that this is one of the few areas where there's a positive to troop prescence but this is surely something that should happen under the UN not the US (illegal anyway, not that that means anything)

I know, the UN is dead and long buried.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/10/07/just-hours-after-trump-bends-erdogan-reports-indicate-turkeys-bombing-kurdish-forces

Turkish troops launch offensive into northern Syria

surprised this is the only place where discussion is taking place, although, like many people, i'm not sure what to say.

has Assad given any sort of statement?

i don't think assad is too bothered about developments and it seems like erdogan has talked to putin about his plans etc. turkey allies with syrian national army opposition elements, which obviously isn't that chill for assad, but will also possibly push ypg into allying with the regime (they've nowhere else to turn).

Turkey is NATO, which obviously isn't that chill for putin. assad's spokesperson said Syria will defend its territorial integrity and demands the withdrawal of all foreign troops, which seems like a SOP kind of response for any nation.

erdogan and putin have a pretty good relationship and for a NATO country turkey is the most favorably oriented towards russia (even buying weapons from them).

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/09/politics/syria-turkey-invasion-intl-hnk/index.html

An SDF commander has confirmed to me that the Ain Issa camp has fallen and all the detainees (a population of thousands that includes ISIS supporters, ISIS relatives and civilians) have fled. “An unbelievable mess,” the commander said. Latest message: pic.twitter.com/yDehTSKkux

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 13, 2019

Assad appears to have struck a deal to send Syrian Army troops to support the YPG/SDF against the FSA / Turkish-backed factions, with Russia providing air cover.

Self Administration of NE Syria announces an agreement with Syrian Government to protect Syrian borders with SDF against Turkey. It will also help liberating all areas from Turkey including Afrin pic.twitter.com/aatRDChDJN

— Mutlu Civiroglu (@mutludc) October 13, 2019

In a single phone call, Trump essentially forced SDF to switch sides, eventually permitting a contiguous Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon Shi'a crescent, the prevention of which was a principal reason for US intervention in Rojava. They cannot be happy with this outcome in Jerusalem and Riyadh.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/kurdish-politician-among-9-civilians-killed-by-turkey-backed-rebels-monitor/

Netanyahu and Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman willingly yoked themselves to this idiot, thinking they could pull him wherever they wanted.

It’s worked in part for them though

This is fucking terrible isn't it.

In a single phone call, Trump essentially forced SDF to switch sides, eventually permitting a contiguous Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon Shi'a crescent, the prevention of which was a principal reason for US intervention in Rojava. They cannot be happy with this outcome in Jerusalem and Riyadh.

― Inherent Contempt (Sanpaku), Sunday, October 13, 2019 12:20 PM (two days ago)

there is a "shia crescent" with or without northeastern syria being controlled by sdf. look at a map

turkey invading syria is kind of a problem for iran because they are allied with assad but also enjoy pretty good relations with turkey and can't really afford to alienate them.

I thought Kurds were Sunnis? Can u explain the Shia crescent thing to me, I'm catching up slowly

Lebanon (Hezbollah), Syria, Iraq are all allied strongly with Iran and form a contiguous "Shia crescent". My point was that even without north east Syria being under Syrian control the countries are still contiguous.

US special operations forces were widely scattered in Eastern Syria. Most in Rojava, northeast of the Euphrates, to provide training, advice, and fight alongside (mostly calling in airstrikes) with the SDF. Under this arrangement, the SDF blocked transport from Iraq along the highways on each bank of the Euphrates.

Another US SOF contingent was embedded with Arab Syrian rebels at An Tanf, 300 km from Kurdish Rojava, strategically blocking the Baghdad-Damascus highway.

Between the two, the US could fairly effectively block much land transport between Tehran and Damascus, with a rather small ground footprint. Remove the US from the equation, and the SDF complies with Assad's wishes, and the Syrian Hwy 2 is open for business.