PMs change and lol we're all gonna die (but brexit will never end)

I guess this is Andrew's point:

Blair made two points:
1. Voting for early election under Fixed-term Parliaments Act would allow Johnson to choose date after 31 Oct, forcing no-deal Brexit while parliament dissolved
2. Voting for pre-Brexit election, eg on 17 Oct, is still a bad idea because Johnson would win pic.twitter.com/ZicYAkOl5V

— John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) September 2, 2019

yeah but the entire economy being on a literal countdown to implosion at a fixed date is an incredibly unusual kind of circumstance.

I don't think no 2 is at all true.

Someone comment on no 1?

Yeah, I don't think Labour can refuse an election for point 2 because that *would* be just saying they're scared.

I think they can for point 1 because it's negligent to allow Johnson his No Deal when they can prevent it.

who is this please

In no way is it in @UKLabour’s - or the UK’s - interest to vote for a #GE. BJ will use it as cover for a Brexit that’ll kill off the last of our industry & provide all the excuses the hard right need to introduce the low tax, low wage, unregulated economy they’ve always wanted.

— Owen Smith (@OwenSmith_MP) September 2, 2019

the other hydra

But a pre Brexit election is saying:

Put exit day preparations on hold
If Corbyn gets in, he has two weeks or less to negotiate with EU?
If Boris gets in, welp, we’re out of time lol
???
We’re all going to die

Although I expect Corbyn getting in would be on the back of a platform to extend and 2nd ref

It would be stupid to have an election after no deal because you might have a lot of chaos under that situation xps to stet

But if labour can plausibly refuse an election, Boris can sit on his hand til the 31st, knowing that the default is crashing out and assuming he thinks the EU will blink and try to avoid a no deal. Meanwhile you’ll have people panic buying and stress about perishables and medication, and who’ll thank Labour for avoiding a GE then?

I agree (with yez, not Blair) on point 2 - my desire for Corbyn to win a pre-deadline election can be seen from space.

That's the thing -- you can't have an election without a proper extension: by the time the new parliament is all sworn in and has held its Queen's Speech there would barely even be time for a new government to legislate May's withdrawal agreement before the 31st, I'm not even sure there is enough.

And yes it would be stupid to have an election immediately post No Deal unless you actually believe it will be OK, which I think only Rees-Mogg thinks now. And the Tories know that. That's why Boris can't just sit on his hands and wait for No Deal: we know the EU won't blink, and then he'll be really fucked trying to fit in an election amid actual chaos.

So they want the only election they have a decent hope of winning: one before the 31st, where No Deal is still an option. Labour shouldn't give it to them: it should demand either a healthy extension or ruling out No Deal (or both) before agreeing to it.

xp If Corbyn gets in, he immediately applies for an extension, surely?

The real danger is the high likelihood that no-one will 'get in' to a clear majority - you would hope under the circumstances that some sort of coalition would for to at least ask for an extension, but, well..

Also I apologise for the inadvertent image of BoJo giving himself the stranger’s handshake

But I don't see the Tories winning a pre-crash out election outright majority if they put No deal on their manifesto. The Brexit Party would go away on the one hand, but they would lose Tory moderates and Scotland xp to Stet

gonna take the heat off farrell by suggesting that a) labour do take the election but b) organise a non-aggression pact with the lib dems, snp etc whereby they won't fight one another's existing seats or con marginals

have at me alphie, i just saved the country

I think it would be dangerous to overstate either of how much the Tories know No Deal will be a disaster or how much Boris knows the EU won't blink.

Save yourself first imago.

would you really argue with a strategy whose focused aim is the destruction of the tories

Another misgiving doing the rounds is that MPs having voted for GE before the 31st, Johnson has the power to switch the date to after that date.

I don't get how anyone would think the EU would blink. It's so weird. Macron almost got the EU to throw out UK in March. Tories are so weird.

imago you are too free and pure for us. Shine on you crazy diamond etc.

I don't really see the Tories winning either, but what are they supposed to do? They need a majority -- they can't do any kind of governing with a majority of 1. They must have an election. Which one do they choose?

1. One before Oct 31st, with exit day unchanged/where they can still talk tough about No Deal, and with the Brexit Party stood down.

2. One before Oct 31st, with exit day changed/where they rule out No Deal and have the Brexit Party standing against them.

3. One after Oct 31st, post-No Deal, with people eating dogs and cats.

If they choose 1, they lose Scotland and LD seats. If they choose 2, they lose all the headbangers in all the seats. If they choose 3 they lose with fireworks. I think they're banking on 1 as their best hope. Labour should deny them that.

xp Suzy: he theoretically does have that ability, but it'd be crazy to do.

Thanks Stet I do get what you are saying. For 2) it Would need good communication to make sure it doesn't look like we are running off.

meanwhile in the actual cabinet:

Analysis of leak of blueprint for the 5pm meeting, key points are:
1. Johnson gvt thinks that Pt must be deprived of ability to do extension/2ref/revocation
2. Only then will they talk. And they believe Commisison willing to look at backstop alternatives
3. Draft legal text ready https://t.co/Y66ExGHdNe

— Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) September 2, 2019

wtf does 1 even mean? "Johnson thinks executive should have unlimted powerz"?

maybe he's going to seize the mace

Yeah those Scottish seats are gone and you wouldn’t bet against them beating the LDs in every marginal they go head to head. So they need more Labour seats to get to a majority, but are there that many in the country to make up for the losses?

What's it like in East Anglia and Mids? I would rather have The Brexit Party squeezing the Tories up there.

Not with the Lexit vote going south there aren't enough Labour marginals going Tory. (Wasn't there a poll showing a sizable not-totally-racist chunk of that bote was about Sovereignty and other things that recent Tory antics don't go down well with?)

That whole Cabinet thread, fuck. I think this is the unintentionally revealing one:

As just told @KayBurley on @SkyNews we understand the cabinet to be told at 5pm that:
- the concern is the EU "are not under any real pressure to engage on solutions until they know the process is not going to be taken over by Parliament."
- until then EU say Brits not serious

— Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) September 2, 2019

It's almost like it's starting to dawn, three years in, that they don't hold all the cards and the EU doesn't have to negotiate with them. But rather than admit their era-defining error, they say "well we would hold all the cards if we were allowed to threaten suicide."

can't wait to see ruthie annihilated at next election

oh she's actually stood down - I thought she'd hold until after next GE. oh well... jackson it is

not been following any of this shit closely recently... evidently

I thought the whole point of being regional party leader without actually holding a seat is that you get to avoid that consequence.

yeah almost certainly losing most of those 13 seats in Scotland means toryscum might want a 20 pt lead if they are entertaining ideas of a working majority.

NEW

Cabinet ministers to be told draft legal text on Northern Ireland plan has been drawn up and ready to be introduced

BUT

😱A source says draft legal text is just the existing protocol with the relevant articles on the backstop crossed out - not exactly a worked up plan😱

— Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) September 2, 2019

and SUCKS TO BE YOU written at the top in brown crayon

Draft legal text is just the Ts & Cs copied from just-eat.com

3. One after Oct 31st, post-No Deal, with people eating dogs and cats.

Are they going to be eating dogs and cats on day one of post no-deal? If not, it could be a very good time for Boris to call a GE

actual lols at that tweet from mark s. This is some sub-Baldrick shit now.

So that's why he bought a dog.

and yeah, I think the days following No Deal get election-rout bad fast -- look at what a bit of snow does to the country.

"Well no one said it would be easy, bound to be a couple of teething problems, but the main thing is we did it!" "Macron, Zidane, your boys took one hell of a beating", Farage isn't standing hmm

still unclear what extent the tories are just trolling as the clock ticks down or whether its all stupidity

a lack of exposure to consequences is a hell of a drug

Sorry to link to Spectator but Ivan Rogers mainly otm https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/ivan-rogers-the-realities-of-a-no-deal-brexit/

"Please do not waste this time."

NEW: I’ve been sent the transcript of Monday’s closed-door briefing from the UK prime minister’s official spokesperson.

With the government in a deep crisis, guess what the country’s top political journalists focused on?

This is not a parody.https://t.co/QaIdsOQlcD pic.twitter.com/C7gxlHtnzz

— Mark Di Stefano 🤙🏻 (@MarkDiStef) September 2, 2019

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8ba0a6aed0c5608688adca0f9f22d235477b6c0a/0_133_3500_2100/master/3500.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CnxVHFeUkAAKVIx.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/oCQopgG.jpg

boris’ pupper stratagem is paying off nicely

So that's why he bought a dog.

― nashwan, Monday, 2 September 2019 15:24 (eighteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

irl lol

A source says draft legal text is just the existing protocol with the relevant articles on the backstop crossed out

1. lol
2. NI has been without its Assembly for 2.5 years and every month for the last 6 months there has been at least one bomb discovered or exploded there; perhaps our govt would like to take NI a little bit more seriously? just a thought
3. oh no, never mind that, there's a cute puppy, never mind people's actual lives. lol Boris, legernd, check out the puppy!

*clenches fists and grimaces at work desk, hopes nobody notices*