hall of fame, next vote...

i have no idea if caught stealing rates are incorporated in pitcher WAR, but i can't imagine it mattering this much

this seems like the sort of thing you should ask a chat session and report back! except the fangraphs ratings seem reasonable, and they're the ones with all the chatz

dinged by the unearned runs

I don't know, I look at those games and yeah, he gave up some hits and walked some guys in those situations but we were already noting his WHIP being almost the same in more innings pitched, etc.

except the fangraphs ratings seem reasonable

Would have to look at whether or not he was really replacement level in '66.

Cruz went off yesterday, a HR and three doubles.

There was a recent article on a local news site talking about a) how Kenley Jansen may have to be replaced as the Dodgers closer and b) how he will go into the HOF wearing Dodger blue nonetheless!

A recent Cubs site article rhapsodized about Kimbrel’s HOF career.

I think they were once both very fine relievers who are nonetheless joke candidates.

Also I was thinking about Strasburg a bit after yesterday’s dominant start — I wonder if he has any shot at all. His peak has been sub-HOF level but he’s accrued a reasonably decent career WAR and is still fairly young. He’d have to go on a Scherzer-like run at some point probably, which seems unlikely but not out of the realm of possibility.

Strasburg is already Scherzer but without the # of innings.

Good piece on recalibrating the JAWS standard for starters:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/everyone-thinks-justin-verlander-belongs-in-the-hall-of-fame-so-why-dont-the-stats-agree/

i'm not sure if it's surprising to anyone as a diehard cardinals homer, but i've not been confident at all about yadi's hof case, and it annoys the hell out of me when certain broadcasters refer to him as "future hall of famer" as if it didn't warrant discussion. even now, i think he needs a strong finish (in 2020?) to have a good chance. there was some uproar about fangraph's addition of pitchframing to WAR a few months ago. yadi does very well, overall, on framing, even as he's become mediocre in recent years. but this is a good argument for other components of his value that haven't been incorporated:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/yadier-molinas-career-in-four-graphs/

Here, the Cardinals are more than 300 steals below the second-best team and are nearly 600 steals below average. I’m not sure quite what to make of that ridiculously low total compared to the rest of baseball. They are more than three standard deviations away from the average. Most teams are going to have good and bad catchers over the course of 15 seasons; the Cardinals have had just one great one.

How many extra runs are we talking about? 25? 50? 100? Has Molina been worth another 10 wins over the course of his career that he’s not getting credit for? Due to the chances of getting caught and the potential runs taken off the board, a stolen base attempt is barely a positive offensively. Even preventing 700 attempts might only be worth 25 runs or so compared to average. But it’s hard to square that with the 600 fewer steals, which might be worth four times the amount of the prevented attempts.

A lot is made of Molina’s intangibles when it comes to assessing his career. Here, we have something very tangible, yet not fully accounted for by his WAR. Catching is hard. Putting everything a catcher does into WAR is incredibly hard. What Yadier Molina has done to the run game over these two decades has been of great value to the Cardinals. The graphs above should help put his career in perspective.

https://i.imgur.com/UNmsc7N.png

Yeah, this was a great article. I really believe that WAR, in its current form(s), is inaccurate for catchers.

very interesting, thanks

that's pretty convincing

...hall of famer yadier molina.

But you might also reopen (for the Veteran's Committee) the Hall of Famer Jim Sundberg and Hall of Famer Bob Boone doors.

Honestly I think Bob Boone belongs in the hall just for his easy-times Bob name, which has always brought me comfort

I think that there should be a space for defensive specialists like Molina, or we risk having only one or two type of players in the Hall.

currently seventh all-time in games played at catcher

it's an interesting list (and maybe jason kendall should get more props than he did)

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/Gm_c_career.shtml

catcher is underrepresented in the HOF to some extent though if Yadi gets in, there are a few other dudes such as Kendall, Parrish, Simmons, etc you gotta consider perhaps ahead of him or at least concurrently?

xp Molina used to be a defensive specialist, but he provided plus offense for a number of years as well (not this year, unfortunately)

I think there's been a growing consensus--James, Jaffe, others--that Simmons is on the shortlist of non-PED guys who deserve induction a.s.a.p.

it takes a tremendous toll on the body (and the offense), which is why i'm impressed with the sheer number of games played

yadi's offensive numbers this year are almost exactly the same as buster posey's, despite being five years older

He will have no traction unfortunately but Russel Martin is a player that I believe should get consideration.

i'm guessing Molina gets in, and I do suspect Mauer will also. Simmons seems like he'll eventually make it via the vets. speaking of Posey, i figure his three rings and maybe someday reaching a couple of nice round numbers in the counting stats will eventually get him there.

Something published just last month:

http://www.cooperstowncred.com/will-ted-simmons-ever-make-hall-fame/

1971-1980	BA	HR	RBI	 H	 2B	 OBP	 SLG	OPS+	oWAR
Bench	       .263	269	933	1309	241	.348	.479	130	46.0
Simmons	       .301	169	902	1631	324	.367	.466	131	45.3

I realize there's a big advantage to Bench defensively (although Simmons' defense was supposedly much better than the general view at the time), but I don't think that comparison is cherry-picking; both guys are thought of primarily as '70s players.

James actually just started a new round of historical rankings a few days ago (why, I'm not sure). His 25 greatest catchers:

http://phildellio.tripod.com/catchers.jpg

Don't ask me to explain the rankings. One note: players are given credit for their entire careers (i.e., not just the games/years as a catcher).

i always forget about Jorge Posada for some reason.

gene tenace definitely deserves some love. .388 career OBP! (also born about five miles from where i grew up)

Berra drew MVP votes 15 consecutive years (with a 7-year Top-4 streak in the middle). Whatever you think of MVP voting, and even if there was some starstruck NY support towards the end, that's pretty damn impressive.

kind of stunning to see what ted williams hit in the three years yogi won mvp

did yogi win because of his defense or the fact that his team was better

I won't even bother comparing: Williams, Mays, Bonds...Trout--they all lost MVPs to the we-can't-give-it-to-him-every-year syndrome.

I think Arrieta might be Mike Scott or somebody like that--long way away, I'd say.

good guess there, clem -- as a Cubs fan i was glad to have Jake there for his peak but i always kinda worried/suspected he would turn into a pumpkin eventually.

it's funny abt Bonds because for awhile there they did give it to him every year, but only because he was so undeniable. it overlapped w/Randy Johnson getting the Cy four years in a row, too.

(xpost) Thanks--but right after a couple of terrible guesses: "Not that big on Greinke yet. 40% of his career WAR was compiled in two seasons; other than that, one season a little over 5.0. See very little chance for Lester."

i think verlaner's 3000th K came on a swinging strike in the dirt kole calhoun ended up beating to first base?

http://blogs.fangraphs.com/brian-mccanns-great-career-and-fascinating-hall-of-fame-case/

Haven't read it, but, again, you're into Sundberg/Boone/McCarver territory again. I just don't see it.

Mccann doesn’t deserve to be in the hof because we don’t need to celebrate any more redasses

McCarver doesn't turn up on McCaan's BR comps, but they're relatively close in WAR:

McCaan - 31.8 for his career, 7.6 of that for defense
McCarver - 28.3 for his career, 6.4 of that for defense

They both played in the postseason alot: 143 PA for McCaan, 103 for McCarver. (McCarver's postseason presence greater in the context of era.) McCaan drew MVP support twice, McCarver once--but McCarver finished second. They both have names that begin with McC.

don't think elite framing was a McCarver skill

mccann never won a gold glove, which is the true arbiter of defense

I'm a little slow on statistical shifts, so I'm not sure if I want to start inducting catchers into the HOF whose biggest selling point is pitch-framing. Putting that aside, though, if McCarver had been great at that too, would analysts know? Is that extracted from traditional stats?

no, we'd need Statcast-type data from that era

(afaik)

Tim being 2nd in MVP voting is craaazy tho, even tho he had his best year by far in '67

mccann, yadi, russell martin and kurt suzuki all got massive boosts in defensive fWAR in 2008 (when the framing metrics kicked in). suzuki immediately plummeted the following season (tbf, 2008 was also his best CS% season). martin's went down 50% in 2009. mccann and yadi remained high for a few years, then spent a few years 50% lower, and now are still a bit above average.

framing is obviously only one component of a catcher's defensive value, but it also seems like one that should neither vary much from year to year nor fade dramatically with age. (maybe i'm wrong there?)

my other complaint is that WAR is supposed to enable us to compare players across eras/ballparks/offensive climates/etc -- and if framing is this huge a factor, we cannot retcon the catchers of the past because we don't have the data. there are simply catchers before 2008 and catchers after 2008, and it should be clearly stated that they are not comparable.

according to fWAR, mccann was 0.1 win less valuable in 2008 than albert pujols, who hit .357/.462/.653. that is possible, but it's not obvious why.

and fwiw, we know that the clubs have more advanced data than is publicly available, and good framing catchers do not seem especially valued in the market -- at least not enough to pay a premium for it

(xpost) Both McCarver and winner Cepeda were well behind Aaron/Santo/Clemente in WAR. That was just before I started watching baseball...The only thing I know is that there was a mystique attached to those Cardinals teams, partly tied in with racial issues of the day. Hard to gauge that stuff through the fog of time. The Cardinals dominated MVP voting that year: 7 of the top 17 vote-getters.

I was thinking Lance Parrish might be a good analog for McCann. The list on Baseball Reference looks about right.

Brian McCann Similar Batters

Jorge Posada (894.9)
Lance Parrish (891.0)
Bill Freehan (879.3)
Javy Lopez (868.9)
Benito Santiago (860.5)
Jason Varitek (847.9)
Russell Martin (839.7)
Ernie Lombardi (831.1) *
Darrell Porter (830.2)
Sherm Lollar (827.8)

and fwiw, we know that the clubs have more advanced data than is publicly available, and good framing catchers do not seem especially valued in the market -- at least not enough to pay a premium for it

― mookieproof, Tuesday, October 15, 2019 4:08 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

There is two things I want to mention: 1, I think we nerds ignore how much salaries are determined by marketability rather than advanced metrics. 2, undervaluing by ownership might just be more sinister than discussions about skill evaluations.

Absolutely agree that it is getting frustrating WAR allows for less and less catchers across different eras/ballparks/offensive factors etc.

As for '67-68 Cardinals' "mystique"... the reason they dominated MVP voting is that the BBWAA seemed even lazier when there was a 10-team single pennant race. ie 1) pennant winner 2) basic counting stats 3) "intangibles" that could be made up on the spot. Ballot done.

While they were one of the more integrated teams to win at that point, I find the '50s Dodgers and '70s Pirates more compelling on that score.

Salaries are also determined by star power (sells merch/seats) which is why teams tend to overpay for over-the-hill talent.

I'll keep saying it until you guys ban me: defensive WAR is fool's gold. It pains me how much the BBWAA have relied/will rely on such a flawed metric for end of year (and HOF!) votes.

speaking of banning, who are the ILB mod(s)? just the dearly departed steve shasta?

I'll keep saying it until you guys ban me: defensive WAR is fool's gold. It pains me how much the BBWAA have relied/will rely on such a flawed metric for end of year (and HOF!) votes.

― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Wednesday, October 16, 2019 11:49 AM (nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Do you mean that we will never figure out good metrics for defensive evaluation or that right now those evaluations are inadequate?