hall of fame, next vote...

jaffe goes through some of the bigger names making moves:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/weve-reached-peak-mike-trout-again/

I think the biggest HOF season this year has easily been Greinke's. He started the year at 187-118, 3.39, 61.1 WAR. You never know at that age--if quick decline had set in he might have ended up on the bubble, shy of 200 wins and somewhere around 65 WAR. But he's been great this year and has two more seasons at least in Houston; he looks solid for 225+ wins and 70-75 WAR, plus he'll have a chance to have a big postseason or two. I'd say he's getting closer and closer to a sure thing.

I know you guys live/breathe these sites' analyses as gospel, but I simply cannot (esp. after that radical recalculation for catchers a scant 5 months ago) trust any Defensive WAR #s and when FG/BA come out with these clicky-pieces comparing today's players vs. pre-statcast legends. (Offensive #s, sure, I'm right there, far less foggy/subjective).

I try to not to talk him up on here but I have a buddy who works for a (very good) club and he rolls his eyes whenever anyone in our group of friends brings up this "hobbyist" stuff to him. He feels like the open source sites are (my paraphrase) "on the right track but ultimately no more than entertainment for the more than casual fans & writers". His club has developed their own proprietary systems and metrics and says that even the top open source analysts are ~10 years behind their club's tech. No names but they are +250 to win the WS as of this morning.

the Lindbergh-Sawchik book has disposed me to root against that team (as soon as they dispose of the Yankees)

all models are wrong, some are useful

WAR is a constant work in progress, and I have no doubt that MLB teams aren't spending huge money on analytics to learn about what they could read on Fangraphs for free.

These are totally different things though -- in discussing the HOF, we're looking at past performance by the top 1% of players. Teams are interested more in future projections for everyone in baseball, including minor league prospects. Of course they're going to use different analytics tools!

*Marlins management takes a second look at $1 million line item to revisit Harold Baines’ hall of fame case*

Ha!

all models are wrong, some are useful

Doesn't address Jersey Al's points.

WAR is certainly a better framework for understanding player value than anything else publicly available

Maybe the Hall of Fame vote should only be decided by quants on the astros lol

xp - I have thought that might be the case at times. Other times, I look at the numbers and think something is wrong and I wonder about why and the extent to which other things that might be less noticeable are also skewered.

I don't know if you guys are interested in one I was looking at the other day. Minnie Rojas is said to have been worth 1.8 WAR in 1966, but only 0.8 WAR in 1967 when he pitched 37.1 more innings, had a lower ERA, finished 31 more games (leading the league), had about the same WHIP, lower FIP, lower SO/W.

The only thing I could think of is that maybe total offense was down in the AL in '67? But I checked, it was down, but only about 4-6% overall.

Fangraphs has him at numbers that are completely different: 0.1 WAR for '66, 0.7 WAR for '67. Bill James has him at 9 Win Shares for '66, 16 WS for '67.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rojasmi01.shtml

that seems inexplicable

why were you looking at him, though?

team defense might be a reason, since bWAR includes that. the Angels in '66 had a worse defense by dWAR numbers, winding up with a negative team number, which could mean Rojas had to bail himself out more vs being bailed out by their better defense in '67.

I collect cards, have his '67 and '68 Topps. Interesting guy, came over from Cuba, short career.

Defensive difference between '66 and '67 teams is calculated as a total of 4.8 dWAR. Rojas pitched about 8.5% of the team's innings that year which would mean about a 0.4 difference in team defense when he was on the mound, right?

looks like he did give up 45 runs in 1967 (36 earned) vs 28 R/27 ER in 1966. So while his performance ERA-wise was better he could be getting dinged by the unearned runs maybe?

i have no idea if caught stealing rates are incorporated in pitcher WAR, but i can't imagine it mattering this much

this seems like the sort of thing you should ask a chat session and report back! except the fangraphs ratings seem reasonable, and they're the ones with all the chatz

dinged by the unearned runs

I don't know, I look at those games and yeah, he gave up some hits and walked some guys in those situations but we were already noting his WHIP being almost the same in more innings pitched, etc.

except the fangraphs ratings seem reasonable

Would have to look at whether or not he was really replacement level in '66.

Cruz went off yesterday, a HR and three doubles.

There was a recent article on a local news site talking about a) how Kenley Jansen may have to be replaced as the Dodgers closer and b) how he will go into the HOF wearing Dodger blue nonetheless!

A recent Cubs site article rhapsodized about Kimbrel’s HOF career.

I think they were once both very fine relievers who are nonetheless joke candidates.

Also I was thinking about Strasburg a bit after yesterday’s dominant start — I wonder if he has any shot at all. His peak has been sub-HOF level but he’s accrued a reasonably decent career WAR and is still fairly young. He’d have to go on a Scherzer-like run at some point probably, which seems unlikely but not out of the realm of possibility.

Strasburg is already Scherzer but without the # of innings.

Good piece on recalibrating the JAWS standard for starters:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/everyone-thinks-justin-verlander-belongs-in-the-hall-of-fame-so-why-dont-the-stats-agree/

i'm not sure if it's surprising to anyone as a diehard cardinals homer, but i've not been confident at all about yadi's hof case, and it annoys the hell out of me when certain broadcasters refer to him as "future hall of famer" as if it didn't warrant discussion. even now, i think he needs a strong finish (in 2020?) to have a good chance. there was some uproar about fangraph's addition of pitchframing to WAR a few months ago. yadi does very well, overall, on framing, even as he's become mediocre in recent years. but this is a good argument for other components of his value that haven't been incorporated:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/yadier-molinas-career-in-four-graphs/

Here, the Cardinals are more than 300 steals below the second-best team and are nearly 600 steals below average. I’m not sure quite what to make of that ridiculously low total compared to the rest of baseball. They are more than three standard deviations away from the average. Most teams are going to have good and bad catchers over the course of 15 seasons; the Cardinals have had just one great one.

How many extra runs are we talking about? 25? 50? 100? Has Molina been worth another 10 wins over the course of his career that he’s not getting credit for? Due to the chances of getting caught and the potential runs taken off the board, a stolen base attempt is barely a positive offensively. Even preventing 700 attempts might only be worth 25 runs or so compared to average. But it’s hard to square that with the 600 fewer steals, which might be worth four times the amount of the prevented attempts.

A lot is made of Molina’s intangibles when it comes to assessing his career. Here, we have something very tangible, yet not fully accounted for by his WAR. Catching is hard. Putting everything a catcher does into WAR is incredibly hard. What Yadier Molina has done to the run game over these two decades has been of great value to the Cardinals. The graphs above should help put his career in perspective.

https://i.imgur.com/UNmsc7N.png

Yeah, this was a great article. I really believe that WAR, in its current form(s), is inaccurate for catchers.

very interesting, thanks

that's pretty convincing

...hall of famer yadier molina.

But you might also reopen (for the Veteran's Committee) the Hall of Famer Jim Sundberg and Hall of Famer Bob Boone doors.

Honestly I think Bob Boone belongs in the hall just for his easy-times Bob name, which has always brought me comfort

I think that there should be a space for defensive specialists like Molina, or we risk having only one or two type of players in the Hall.

currently seventh all-time in games played at catcher

it's an interesting list (and maybe jason kendall should get more props than he did)

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/Gm_c_career.shtml

catcher is underrepresented in the HOF to some extent though if Yadi gets in, there are a few other dudes such as Kendall, Parrish, Simmons, etc you gotta consider perhaps ahead of him or at least concurrently?

xp Molina used to be a defensive specialist, but he provided plus offense for a number of years as well (not this year, unfortunately)

I think there's been a growing consensus--James, Jaffe, others--that Simmons is on the shortlist of non-PED guys who deserve induction a.s.a.p.

it takes a tremendous toll on the body (and the offense), which is why i'm impressed with the sheer number of games played

yadi's offensive numbers this year are almost exactly the same as buster posey's, despite being five years older

He will have no traction unfortunately but Russel Martin is a player that I believe should get consideration.

i'm guessing Molina gets in, and I do suspect Mauer will also. Simmons seems like he'll eventually make it via the vets. speaking of Posey, i figure his three rings and maybe someday reaching a couple of nice round numbers in the counting stats will eventually get him there.

Something published just last month:

http://www.cooperstowncred.com/will-ted-simmons-ever-make-hall-fame/

1971-1980	BA	HR	RBI	 H	 2B	 OBP	 SLG	OPS+	oWAR
Bench	       .263	269	933	1309	241	.348	.479	130	46.0
Simmons	       .301	169	902	1631	324	.367	.466	131	45.3

I realize there's a big advantage to Bench defensively (although Simmons' defense was supposedly much better than the general view at the time), but I don't think that comparison is cherry-picking; both guys are thought of primarily as '70s players.

James actually just started a new round of historical rankings a few days ago (why, I'm not sure). His 25 greatest catchers:

http://phildellio.tripod.com/catchers.jpg

Don't ask me to explain the rankings. One note: players are given credit for their entire careers (i.e., not just the games/years as a catcher).

i always forget about Jorge Posada for some reason.

gene tenace definitely deserves some love. .388 career OBP! (also born about five miles from where i grew up)

Berra drew MVP votes 15 consecutive years (with a 7-year Top-4 streak in the middle). Whatever you think of MVP voting, and even if there was some starstruck NY support towards the end, that's pretty damn impressive.

kind of stunning to see what ted williams hit in the three years yogi won mvp

did yogi win because of his defense or the fact that his team was better

I won't even bother comparing: Williams, Mays, Bonds...Trout--they all lost MVPs to the we-can't-give-it-to-him-every-year syndrome.

I think Arrieta might be Mike Scott or somebody like that--long way away, I'd say.

good guess there, clem -- as a Cubs fan i was glad to have Jake there for his peak but i always kinda worried/suspected he would turn into a pumpkin eventually.

it's funny abt Bonds because for awhile there they did give it to him every year, but only because he was so undeniable. it overlapped w/Randy Johnson getting the Cy four years in a row, too.

(xpost) Thanks--but right after a couple of terrible guesses: "Not that big on Greinke yet. 40% of his career WAR was compiled in two seasons; other than that, one season a little over 5.0. See very little chance for Lester."