This is almost at the level of Babe Ruth hitting the home run for the hospitalized kid on the shamelessly cornball scale, but I got a kick out of it anyway.
https://www.mlb.com/cut4/dodgers-convince-fan-to-keep-playing-baseball
― clemenza, Thursday, 8 August 2019 22:51 (four years ago) link
"Before long, Kershaw will have lost even more fastball velocity. Time wounds all heels, and no one can outrun it forever. For a month, however, Kershaw has turned back the clock. He’s made a simple adjustment that makes batters’ lives harder, and for now that’s enough."
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-remains-of-clayton-kershaw/
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 9 August 2019 04:17 (four years ago) link
Passed Koufax in wins last night. 12 seasons each:
Kershaw - 166-71, 2.41, 159 ERA+, 4.27 K/BB, 2.70 FIP, 1.006 WHIP, 3 Cy YoungsKoufax - 165-87, 2.76, 131 ERA+, 2.93 K/BB, 2.69 FIP, 1.106 WHIP, 3 Cy Youngs
Koufax's Cy Youngs were across both leagues, but the number of extra teams that involved was only a handful.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 21 August 2019 16:58 (four years ago) link
Also: big WAR advantage to Kershaw (65 to 53), big postseason advantage to Koufax (only a third as many innings, though).
― clemenza, Wednesday, 21 August 2019 17:01 (four years ago) link
kershaw a better hitter, but it's a pretty low bar
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 21 August 2019 17:16 (four years ago) link
I don’t think we’ll get anywhere, but I’ll give this another go.
But it's a 'season' that has lasted 12 years (so far) and he literally is not the same kind of pitcher now as he was at the beginning. So, not a season.― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius)
Tried to get my head around this and couldn’t. We’re comparing two sets of numbers: Clayton Kershaw, regular-season pitcher, vs. Clayton Kershaw, postseason pitcher. The particulars of how and when they were compiled seem beside the point to me, because it’s the same guy and the same time-frame. Anytime you make a general statement about a guy’s career, you’re talking about that player at many different stages of that career. But you don’t start chopping up the career into smaller segments for the purpose of...I don’t know what the purpose would be. “Willie Mays was a great baseball player”--that’s a general statement that encompasses the 1951 Willie Mays, the MVP of ’54 and ’65, and the barely-hanging-on gate attraction of 1973. The statement stands, though--you don’t need to clarify it any more than that, just like I don’t see any need to start micro-analyzing the statement “Clayton Kershaw has been a mediocre postseason pitcher” (and don’t really get why you’re so invested in doing so).
As for the "pressing" theory, when he threw 8 scoreless against ATL last year in the DS last year, why didn't he press that night?
As I wrote in the same post, I don’t know what’s behind Kershaw’s postseason troubles--the pressing theory is just that, a theory that makes sense to me. It wouldn’t preclude the occasional good or even great outing, though.
― clemenza, Friday, 11 October 2019 13:21 (four years ago) link
Kershaw does have some pretty amazing company on one list:
Worst ERA when facing elimination (Min. 20 IP):
Tim Wakefield - 6.75Clayton Kershaw - 5.77Roger Clemens - 5.28Pedro Martinez - 5.17
(Not sure how many innings you're talking about with Clemens and Martinez--I'm guessing Kershaw's logged a few more.)
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/clayton-kershaw-postseason-timeline-breaking-down-playoff-struggles-of-the-dodgers-ace-after-game-5-meltdown/
― clemenza, Friday, 11 October 2019 13:30 (four years ago) link
chokers all!
“Clayton Kershaw has been a mediocre postseason pitcher”
Overall, that is a true statement, and I don't think anyone is saying otherwise.
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 11 October 2019 16:25 (four years ago) link
and Willie Mays had his best postseason at age 40
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mayswi01.shtml#all_batting_postseason
so hang on for redemption, Clayton.
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 11 October 2019 16:29 (four years ago) link
Conversely, I've never once used words like "choker" or "character" as an explanation for any of this--you kind of implied that that's where I was coming from last year, and it's simply not true.
I posted something similar yesterday; assuming he's around for another five or six seasons, I think Kershaw will eventually have a postseason similar to Price's last year (which I loved).
― clemenza, Friday, 11 October 2019 16:46 (four years ago) link
no clem, I'm caricaturing the sound of the mob (ie the worst online Dodgers fans). sorry if you thought otherwise.
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 11 October 2019 16:47 (four years ago) link
Kershaw 2.0 is definitely a different player than Kershaw 1.0, his curveball is flatter and hangs a bit more in the strike zone. His new pitch (slurvy-slider) doesn't have enough zip, and his fastball is uh...
https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/eVm29BOKLxu15gyfIWQfX2B-7EY=/0x0:706x449/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:706x449):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/16341430/image1__29_.png
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Friday, 11 October 2019 17:43 (four years ago) link
someone somewhere was noting that his fastball and slider are now only 3mph apart -- throwing a harder fastball seems unlikely, but perhaps slowing down the slider would do enough to upset timing
― mookieproof, Friday, 11 October 2019 18:44 (four years ago) link
(xpost) Fair enough.
I read that he's held in such high esteem by his teammates, they were going above and beyond when it came to consoling him.
― clemenza, Friday, 11 October 2019 19:09 (four years ago) link
Interesting piece for a couple of days ago:
http://blogs.fangraphs.com/clayton-kershaw-and-the-unfairness-of-narratives/
It falls about halfway on things we've been kicking around here: important metrics that are almost the same for him in the regular- and post-season (strikeout and walk rate), one that's much worse (HR).
It does give credence to the idea that it may be tied in with "the little voice in the back of your head":
That’s the math of the situation; it can’t change the feeling, though, the little voice in the back of your head that says “Hey, are you ready for this?” every time Kershaw pitches in October. And if the voice is in your head, you can be sure it’s in Kershaw’s too, every time he gives up a home run or a chain of singles. Is this all luck? Could it possibly be luck? How can it keep happening to me? Am I tipping my pitches? Pressing too hard? Not pressing hard enough?
Saying that someone might be pressing is, to me, just the flip side of saying clutch-hitting doesn't exist. (Which I agree with, although I'd allow that there are probably very isolated cases of players who do consistently perform well under pressure--an argument for somewhere else.) Sabermetrics doesn't buy clutch-hitting because a) the evidence isn't there, and b) why would it be?--you'd have to believe that athletes have some magical ability to change their abilities at key moments. But I also believe that athletes don't have magical abilities to not fall prey to something very human: that doubt creeps in when you don't succeed a few times in the same situation. It doesn't mean that you don't occasionally succeed--get a big hit, pitch a good game--just that the doubt lingers if you also keep back-stepping, and continues to linger until you definitively close that door, like Price did last year. I don't think Kershaw has done that yet. But I think he will at some point.
― clemenza, Sunday, 13 October 2019 18:15 (four years ago) link
Believing in clutchness doesn't have to be tied in to a belief that someone can do it over an extended period of time. Someone can be clutch on a given day, where they do something they might not have done on another day because they were in a different frame of mind or they told themselves definitively, "I am going to do this now and I am not going to take no for an answer." I think that kind of stuff happens all the time.
― timellison, Sunday, 13 October 2019 23:06 (four years ago) link
He's pretty dominant every which way this season. Did he make some change that's returned him to what he was five years ago, or is he just having a good run? Five of his six starts have been good-to-great.
― clemenza, Saturday, 5 September 2020 17:55 (three years ago) link
In a day of a billion I Told You So's, I thought for sure there'd be one from Morbius on this thread.
― clemenza, Saturday, 3 October 2020 03:50 (three years ago) link
saw v little of Kershaw game tbh
― brooklyn suicide cult (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 3 October 2020 15:38 (three years ago) link
Playoff Kershaw returned last night with a typical performance ... dominated into the 6th and started serving up longballs (although he made a good pitch to Machado).
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Thursday, 8 October 2020 07:22 (three years ago) link
roberts needs to treat kershaw like any other playoff starting pitcher - first sign of trouble, get him out of there. no need to go through the lineup a 3rd time.
― president of my cat (Karl Malone), Thursday, 8 October 2020 14:49 (three years ago) link
Two excellent starts after that dreadful first one. I didn't know Baseball Reference had a player-to-player comparison feature that saves you all the work. Kershaw and Koufax have pitched almost exactly the same number of innings at this point (Kershaw's pitched ~25 more).
https://stathead.com/baseball/player-comparison.cgi?player_id2=koufasa01&type=p&player_id1=kershcl01&sum=0&request=1
Unless you factor in postseason, hard to not to give that to Kershaw.
― clemenza, Monday, 12 April 2021 18:30 (two years ago) link
Sorry but Koufax has 9 saves.
― Van Horn Street, Monday, 12 April 2021 20:46 (two years ago) link
damn, he's a fireman!
― Zach_TBD (Karl Malone), Monday, 12 April 2021 21:07 (two years ago) link
Their opposing-batter slash line is almost identical: .209/.261/.319 for Kershaw, .205/.275/.319 for Koufax.
― clemenza, Monday, 12 April 2021 21:58 (two years ago) link
Price is the difference! Koufax’s salary over that period, when adjusted for inflation, only $3,480,575.58.
― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 12 April 2021 23:55 (two years ago) link
Cubs scored four in the first today, Kershaw replaced in the second; shortest start ever?
― clemenza, Tuesday, 4 May 2021 19:13 (two years ago) link
didn't seem right, lots of balls in the dirt
― na (NA), Tuesday, 4 May 2021 19:22 (two years ago) link
It was his shortest:
https://www.mlb.com/news/clayton-kershaw-makes-shortest-career-start-vs-cubs
― clemenza, Tuesday, 4 May 2021 23:19 (two years ago) link
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRpDXIWXMAIQDAt?format=jpg&name=small
― mookieproof, Sunday, 1 May 2022 03:32 (one year ago) link
That's a great list because those are probably the seven most famous Dodger pitchers...maybe Don Newcombe, too.
― clemenza, Sunday, 1 May 2022 16:34 (one year ago) link
yeah, amazing list! i'm not sure how much people remember dazzy vance these days. my deep cut dodgers pitcher is preacher roe.
― Bruce Stingbean (Karl Malone), Sunday, 1 May 2022 16:42 (one year ago) link
The best https://deadline.com/2022/07/boy-approaches-clayton-kershaw-at-press-conference-my-grandpa-loved-you-im-meeting-you-for-him-1235072946/
― Bee OK, Thursday, 21 July 2022 01:31 (one year ago) link
Another reason why no other sport can touch baseball
― Bee OK, Thursday, 21 July 2022 01:32 (one year ago) link
https://i.imgur.com/dZndZst.png
what's the big deal? this is pretty much my identical back pain history
― Bruce Stingbean (Karl Malone), Monday, 8 August 2022 17:03 (one year ago) link
Right? At my house we call that "5:30 every morning."
― immodesty blaise (jimbeaux), Wednesday, 10 August 2022 01:29 (one year ago) link
i can totally throw, i just need someone to put my socks on and tie my cleats
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 10 August 2022 01:43 (one year ago) link
Kershaw notches 200th career victory as Dodgers defeat Mets
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 19 April 2023 05:26 (eleven months ago) link
Is Clayton Kershaw the best regular season pitcher ever? pic.twitter.com/IK9SEvHe6P— Paul Hembekides (@PaulHembo) April 21, 2023
what are we doing here
― k3vin k., Saturday, 22 April 2023 13:15 (eleven months ago) link
Top five of his generation, sure
― omar little, Saturday, 22 April 2023 13:21 (eleven months ago) link
His career rate stats will probably rank with just about any postwar pitcher when he finishes; obviously, he'll fall well short of Clemens, Johnson, Maddux, Seaver, etc. in terms of durability. And then it's just a case of how much you put that down to the way the game has changed; would he have been logging 250-300 IP and 35-40 starts per year if he'd pitched in the '70s? No idea.
― clemenza, Saturday, 22 April 2023 15:14 (eleven months ago) link
Some of his current rankings in career rate stats:
ERA+ - 4th (he's second behind Rivera post-war for unadjusted ERA; first for starters)H/9 - 3rdWHIP - 5thSO/BB - 9th
― clemenza, Saturday, 22 April 2023 15:37 (eleven months ago) link
I really wish he'd stayed healthier. He's at least been healthier than degrom though.
― omar little, Saturday, 22 April 2023 16:09 (eleven months ago) link
Curious how much will be remembered about his postseason difficulties 20 years from now. It's the kind of thing that does tend to hang around as a footnote--I can still remember that Gil Hodges (before my time) and Dave Winfield all went through something similar.
― clemenza, Saturday, 22 April 2023 17:13 (eleven months ago) link
With the expanded postseason (starting in '95 and continuing until today), postseason stats are more important than ever. Guys are playing far more postseason games than before, and more teams are making it which means no more Ernie Banks situations where they play for bad teams and never get a chance in the postseason. Yeah, let's pour one out for Mike Trout but in general, the best players will all have multiple appearances with meaningful sample sizes.
Kershaw plays for one of the most dominant regular season teams ever, has only one title, and hasn't come close to matching his regular season stats in the postseason. I'm not saying it'll be a stain on his eventual HOF induction, but it'll definitely be remembered for a long time
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Saturday, 22 April 2023 18:32 (eleven months ago) link
I love kershaw and am glad he’s recognized as the all-time great that he is, but to consider him the best regular-season pitcher ever (which is distinct from the best per-inning pitcher) seems a little insulting to the guys who were every bit as good and pitched a lot longer
― k3vin k., Saturday, 22 April 2023 19:11 (eleven months ago) link
Agree, except that's what I mean about the changing game --would he have matched the Carltons and Madduxes if he'd pitched in their era? Verlander and Scherzer are considered old-school workhorses, and Kershaw isn't too far behind either one of them in career IP.
― clemenza, Saturday, 22 April 2023 19:38 (eleven months ago) link
for sure, he's got a great case for best pitcher of his generation. but I imagine it's going to be kind to one's rate stats to take a few weeks off every couple of months and rarely face hitters more than twice a game
― k3vin k., Saturday, 22 April 2023 22:20 (eleven months ago) link
Assuming Kershaw, Verlander & Scherzer are all of the same generation, I wouldn't rate Kershaw better than the other 2, more like equals.
I hate hypotheticals, but had Kershaw been healthy and not having those numerous IL stints, he may have had a stronger case.
― citation needed (Steve Shasta), Saturday, 22 April 2023 22:31 (eleven months ago) link
(xpost) Totally agree again, I'm just wondering if that has more to do with him or usage patterns? Is there any evidence he wouldn't have pitched as much as Seaver in the '70s or Maddux in the '90s if he'd been around then? I guess he does seem a little fragile...Quick check: he was in his league's Top 10 for IP five times, but Seaver was Top 10 twelve times and Maddux Top ten seventeen (!) times. So maybe you're right, it has more to do with him.
― clemenza, Saturday, 22 April 2023 22:34 (eleven months ago) link