NL CENTRAL PREDICTATRON 2019

Aquino does have some power.

Cards definitely look smart for not giving Albert Pujols that ginormous contract, still two years left to go. His swing is looking real slow to me.

I was just ragging on my cousin, the Cardinals Fan from New Jersey, over the Redbirds now being tied with the Mets, and that got him off the phone p quick

the alex reyes story is getting really sad. this will be the third straight season to be lost to a season ending injury.

for a very brief time, before all the injuries, his stuff was electric

Pretty good first week or so in the bigs for Aquino. The way he swings and his build reminds me a bit of Jose Bautista.

He's got three HR through six innings tonight!

Aquino hit 3 shots over 450 feet across 2 games at Louisville a few weeks ago. The video of the one to dead center was a lunar landing, it look like it was a golf shot.

Reds are back to 3 under .500 for the first time in a while, this seems to be their ceiling so far this season. Alot of people both in the media and fans seem to be waiting for them to go on a run, which they have not done. Getting Bauer and if Sonny Gray is healthy and productive, they should be able to stay in some games. Bullpen is pretty cooked though. Be nice to see Votto get hot just getting on base left and right. Suarez has tore up some pitching with his power, but the guy will look totally lost at times striking out like mad too.

We will see, any chance to parlay these good seasons by individual players into the post season is going to be decided in the next week or so. They need to win series especially head to head with Nats, Cards and Pirates. For it to be a legit playoff shot, I think they will need to rip of a week full of wins, as that would plant them near the top of the NL Wild Card and even out that 1-8 start.

reds have been jobbed by their run differential -- they're pretty good, and the NL central is not insurmountable

that said, they need to go on a run and our best beloved joey votto should fucking wake up and lead it

the reds can make a run, imo, but their problem is that there are also several other NL teams that could also go on a run - WAS, MIL, STL, NYM, ARI, SFG (?!?!). or continue a run, in the mets' case

As I said, 3 under .500 seems to be their ceiling. They have knocked on that door I think 4 or 5 times now this season and then like Sysyphus rolled back down the standings to start again.

Alright, so here's my issue with this, and really, one of my issues with this entire organization:

Everyone, from the top down, is so fucking smug.

They think they're playing chess and we're all only capable of understanding checkers. https://t.co/ilAd6DXGMI

— Jim Rosati (@northsidenotch) August 11, 2019

pirates are now 4-24 since the break. the elite closer they hung onto because they're so close to competing has made two appearances in their last 15 games because there are no save opportunities. (they didn't even use him today, for christ's sake, during which they allowed seven runs in the seventh and eighth to blow an 8-4 lead.) but at least they understand 'the game within the game'

the opportunity to be judgmental

i accept

Yu Darvish has been Scherzer-like in the second half. With Hendricks having some recent meltdowns and Jon Lester completely disintegrating it’s a pretty good sign that he’s turned things around. But I don’t expect the Cubs to go anywhere if (not when) they make the postseason.

hell of a loss for them tonight

yeah i agree, i think the cubs have a good chance to win the division and then crap out in the first round of the playoffs. unless they can somehow convince the league to let them play all their playoff games at wrigley

despite the (good) add of castellanos they've still got holes in the offense (happ/almora/kemp) and the bullpen is frightening

i think the cubs have a good chance to win the division and then crap out in the first round of the playoffs.

this is probably true of whoever ends up winning the NL Central tbh

true

although i guess the NL Central winner will have the benefit of playing the NL East winner (most likely), while the wild card survival champion will have to play the Dodgers in round 1

pretty ugly exposé of turmoil in the pirate clubhouse today in the athletic. imo they should go hire mike matheny -- it would really help me jettison all fondness for the team

Let’s slow things down here, you don’t understand what you’re saying

as the millennials say, step on my throat mike matheny

Well the Reds pretty much did what deep down I figured would happen sliding back. They have had a few starters get totally pounded in the last week.

Got to figure whoever was on the spot and picked up Aquino in their fantasy leagues are doing great in the playoff hunt. Anyone mashing 10 HRs in 16 games helps in that arena, but impressive to start in the bigs.

alright, let's get real. which team is going to win the division, and which (if any) will nab a wild card spot?

i am going to be pessimistic and say that the cubs will win the division, cardinals will get one of the WC spots (along with the Nats), and the Brewers will just miss. but i think it's just as likely that no wild card teams come from the NL central this year.

i guess a lot of teams are frustrated with the lack of moves made at the trade deadline this year, but it seems bonkers that the cardinals didn't make a move for starting pitching, especially considering their OF surplus. here's who they have right now, either on the roster or on the cusp:

- marcell ozuna (starter, LF)
- dexter fowler (starter, CF or RF)
- harrison bader (CF, defensive wiz, just got called back from a short stint at AAA to learn how to hit the ball again)
- jose martinez (RF, on the IL for another week or so. can't actually play RF, but plays there anyway)
- tyler bro'neill (RF, on the IL for another week or so. may someday hit+ 40 HRs, great speed)
- yairo munoz (an infielder who sometimes, inexplicably, gets asked to start at CF or sub in at RF, where he looks like an infielder trying to play outfield. 70 wRC+.
- tommy edman (exhibit A of how doing really, really well in your first week can change the perception of your manager for the rest of the year, even if you don't deserve it. he is also an infielder that is now being asked to play RF. when he started playing there a few weeks ago, it was noted that he had not played outfield since high school. the announcers love him. mike shildt loves him and says that he is now an everyday player (mainly in the infield as a replacement for matt carpenter, but he also plays 2B). somehow, he starts in RF about twice a week. 85 wRC+, and that's after a recent hot streak.)
- dylan carlson (#2 prospect in the system, now at AAA, shot up through multiple levels this year, is probably better than everyone else on this list except for Ozuna)
- randy arozarena (yet another solid outfielder, just got his first promotion to MLB (he's back in AAA now).

so you have 7 outfielders competing for 3 spots. plus 2 weakass infielders that inexplicably are starting in outfield week after week.

i guess the trade market must have been reaaaaally weak

Brewers are kind of a dumpster fire right now, their offense is pretty good but their pitching staff is such a dumpster fire right now. It was pretty much the worst-case scenario there, the guys who were good in '18 fell apart and none of the new pitchers panned out. Not to mention Jimmy Nelson coming back with a massive thud, getting blown up in nearly every appearance so far. Maybe we shouldn't have put so much faith in a guy who led the league in walks AND hit batters a couple years ago. Zach Davies & Chase Anderson are okay but they rarely can go more than 5. And the relief pitching is a total mess; Hader suddenly turned into bad K-Rod, Jeffress can't get outs in key spots, and Knebel got hurt in Spring Training, so our go-to guy is....Mat Albers!!

so yeah, I'd be surprised if they made it, but they do have some of that "team that could surprise everyone" vibe to them

carlson should be ready by april 15 if not sooner. he's been in AAA for a week and has a 1.500 OPS (bader was also killing the ball in memphis tho)

yeah i think it's more the starters that were available. i don't think they could have pulled off greinke, which leaves . . . cashner? homer bailey? doesn't seem to be much point

yeah, i guess it's true that there didn't seem to be much on the trade market...

it just seems odd that they can't flip some of these guys for some non-OF prospects, at least

just hope STL and CHC beat up on each other sufficiently to let the Mets sneak past one of them

just so you all know, the cardinals were totally about to win that game

That was a pretty fugly weekend in Pittsburgh by the Reds. They need to take those damn pajama uniforms and put them on the mound and set them alight.

Walls seem to be closing in on the Brewers

https://i.imgur.com/0uQd7cz.png

The Pythagorean Reds would like their season back.

Record: 64-73, 4th place in NL_Central (Schedule and Results)

Pythagorean W-L: 70-67, 618 Runs, 604 Runs Allowed

I see Ben "Zobrist vs Zobrist" Zobrist is back and hitting

The Brewers are...

5-5 last 10g
10-10 last 20g
15-15 last 30g
20-20 last 40g
25-25 last 50g
30-30 last 60g

— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) September 7, 2019

Well that’s odd

cubs are getting banged up at the worst time. they played david bote at ss yesterday bc addison russell got beaned in the face and javy is day-to-day but might not play any more this season. apparently they're calling up nico hoerner to play some ss even though he's never played above aa. kris bryant has also been in and out with knee issues and hasn't homered in a while. at least contreras is back.

i could not remember kris bryant's name yesterday and it was driving me batty. i refused to look it up. i woke up in the middle of the night and immediately thought "kris bryant". so don't worry, everything's all good now

Darvish over his last ten games: 2.69 era with 4 walks and 79 strikeouts over 60.1 IP.

since it's the NL central thread, i'll add Jack Flaherty's line over the last 10 games:

0.70 ERA with 14 walks and 81 strikeouts over 64.1 IP
(his 96.3% LOB% and 5.3% HR/FB rates over that period might have contributed to his ERA success, too)

With the way the ball is flying having a good HR/FB might just be a skill? For example, Darvish is still getting crushed in that aspect. I get it’s quite park dependant but I suppose if everyone is hitting the low pitches and going for HRs pitchers must figure at least try to find way to induce fly outs.

btw don't miss that Pirates UZR in the chart

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cardinals-great-and-boring-defense/

just watched Steve Cishek spit the bit vs SD last night, a joy to behold

so much fun to hate the Cubs

I didn’t realize he was still pitching!

technically he is

oh no, the fucking Pirates visit Wrigley this weekend

you get your 18 games against the marlins, they get theirs against the pirates

Six of which are still to play!