At the risk of stating the obvious, the July 2019 US Politics Thread is horse-sh*t

I mean, Clinton did expose him on policy already. He basically rambled and used little other than Breitbart-esque appeals in his debates. Voters conceded he lost all three of them in polls.

He's losing major ground with independents, many of whom may have voted for him the last time around. Some of whom probably thought his rhetoric was just a ploy to get elected. Republican friends of mine have left the party. The shit is working, just not at the rate we want.

the debates don't matter. smart people have already made up their mind, dumb people can't follow them.

"Feel like yesterday's press conference with the Squad is a masterclass in how to respond/not respond to that dumb oaf."

Pressley and Tliab were excellent; Omar and AOC were a little less focused. Pressley is really the badass of this bunch...steady, to the point, and she sounds incredibly authoritative when she talks.

It's July 16, 2019, but if the midterm elections were any indication he's lost and is losing the margin of independents and suburbanites by which he eked out a 70,000 vote victory in '16. He's the incumbent, with history on his side; the race will be the most brutal of our lifetimes; but it's possible he'll lose.

Like we act incredulous that nothing impacts his polls but the data is there. Republican voters will never leave him because they hate gays, Muslims and abortion so much that they'd never vote against a guy who hits all three, even if there was a 100% chance he would get us all killed.

These aren't the people we have to win. We can pick handfuls off.

Xxxpost

I posted this on a different thread last week but there have been no responses since, and it probably fits here better now anyway

Ive been watching a few prison channel youtubes this year (after prison show, big herc, lockdown 23and1), and a few recurring themes stood out, but one in particular stuck with me from guests and hosts

The relatively high levels of Non-partisan support for Trump.

At this point in the cycle we're all "well people have made their minds up now, anyone still supporting him is unreachable, how can they be ok with whats happening", but I felt like the people here supported Trump in an almost apolitical way. I could easily imagine some of these people saying exactly the same thing about Obama (or Bernie!), a kind of accepting, "well he's the boss, its a hard job, people make mistakes"

I've always believed its better to go on the offensive with positives/policies than on the negatives with attacks on Trump (or anyone else), but really felt the futility of attacking Trump, "why you got to attack the man, he's just trying to do his job" instead of selling them something different

Also there's a big lag in polling, people take years to change their minds, years for events to even register or sink in

Trump lost Minnesota in 2016 by only 44 k votes. His 2020 Minnesota strategy is to make the election a referendum on Ilhan Omar and by extension the 5th congressional district.

Like we act incredulous that nothing impacts his polls but the data is there.

He started historically low (low 40s) and has been in the 35-45% window ever since. Nothing gets him below 35. Maybe an economic crash.

I've always believed its better to go on the offensive with positives/policies than on the negatives with attacks on Trump (or anyone else)

This is why I believe Warren has such a good chance. She says, in effect, "Yeah, he's a piece of shit, but we've got other real problems. Here's how I'd fix them." And she doesn't allow herself to be distracted from that mission - pointing out problems and explaining her solutions.

except for that part where she was distracted by the Pocahantas jibe

I've always believed its better to go on the offensive with positives/policies than on the negatives with attacks on Trump (or anyone else),

Lol, there are studies that have found otherwise.

When were these studies from? Negatives have worked historically when attempting to expose, Trump (and those like him) have changed all that

Negatives on Biden would work because the public perception and the reality differ. But Trump?

pointing out problems and explaining her solutions

Part of the problem is that many of these problems aren't deemed such. Official economic figures, a businessman in the White House, low unemployment rates, etc. are enough to make most of the hesitant 'forget' the rest.

what personal negatives about Trump can be highlighted that are going to make people change their minds? it's all out there, which is why it's a losing proposition. all of Trump's shit was out there well in advance of the '16 election and remains out there, and anything new is going to have no effect ("he raped someone? ok whatever more fake news...."), which meant that any minor bump in the road for Hillary was going to have a worse effect on her than anything would have on Trump. which is why Comey's "hang on we're just checking something in her emails again, oh never mind it's nothing" maybe cost her the election.

Trump lost Minnesota in 2016 by only 44 k votes. His 2020 Minnesota strategy is to make the election a referendum on Ilhan Omar and by extension the 5th congressional district.

Facebook Grampas like to point out the Omar's district is THE Al Qaeda hot bed in the whole USA.

sorry that was garbled but i think any minor personal issue with any of these candidates is going to have a markedly worse effect than anything they try to sling at Trump even if it's twenty times worse. or one hundred times worse.

He started historically low (low 40s) and has been in the 35-45% window ever since. Nothing gets him below 35. Maybe an economic crash.

― Karl Malone, Tuesday, July 16, 2019 1:25 PM bookmarkflaglink

Around inauguration, he was close to 50%. The drop to low 40s happened shortly after that.

He was also in the upper 30s prior to the tax reform. That seemed to get him a permanent boost into the 40s.

But he stays there for no reason other than 90+% of Republican voters say they approve of him. They're the sole reason.

Warren "scamming" her way into college by lying about NA ancestry is somehow a bigger deal than Trump scamming thousands of people with a fake university. Nothing matters, this country is full of dumbfucks.

Maybe the Dem candidate should send dem voters a note saying ignore the campaign and say nothing but hateful shit and get elected and be all like just kidding

In any case our best outcome is Trump dropping the fuck dead. Heart attack, stroke, i don't care. I no longer care if he gets "held accountable"

I think the Epstein thing has legs because it involves children (cf. Roy Moore). Trump views it as a problem, which is why he started acting out as soon as the Epstein story started dominating the cycle.

why Comey's "hang on we're just checking something in her emails again, oh never mind it's nothing" maybe cost her the election.

no maybe about it

I know people are still shellshocked about 2016 but lets look at the facts for a bit. Hillary Clinton was the most unpopular Democratic nominee ever, in no small part due to 25 years of sustained right-wing attacks against her, including 9 Benghazi investigations whose stated purpose was to lower her poll numbers. 10 days before the election, she was rocked by a re-opening of what was the biggest knock against her, the one "issue" the MSM talked about more than literally anything else. Despite all this, she won the popular vote by about 3 million, but lost the election due to the quirks of the electoral college, losing states like Wisconsin which she'd never campaigned in (a mistake the Dems are not going to repeat in 2020).

yes, Trump has the incumbent advantage, but look at his popularity - even with a strong economy and no wars (yet), he still can't get above 42-43%, indicating that there is indeed a hard ceiling to his support. we despair that he can seemingly never lose the bottom 35% or whatever but at the end of the day he can't do any better than where he is now. 2018 was widely seen as a referendum on Trump and he got destroyed. I still think the Dems are going to be big favorites in 2020. Obviously I won't put it past them to fuck it up, a process which I can see starting already, but still. "How do we beat Trump?" should not exactly be a big question mark for these people.

I think the Epstein thing has legs because it involves children (cf. Roy Moore). Trump views it as a problem, which is why he started acting out as soon as the Epstein story started dominating the cycle.

― Mazzy Tsar (PBKR), Tuesday, July 16, 2019 1:45 PM (six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I don't think most of Trump's base equates grown men having sex with 15 year-old girls as child rape. "She told me she was 18" is more than enough of excuse for those people.

It seems like on most Dem fuckups, Trump takes a dive 1/4 into his victory lap.

I think the Epstein thing has legs because it involves children (cf. Roy Moore). Trump views it as a problem, which is why he started acting out as soon as the Epstein story started dominating the cycle.

― Mazzy Tsar (PBKR), Tuesday, July 16, 2019 1:45 PM (six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I don't think most of Trump's base equates grown men having sex with 15 year-old girls as child rape. "She told me she was 18" is more than enough of excuse for those people.

― Evans on Hammond (evol j), Tuesday, July 16, 2019 1:57 PM (ten minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

You are right about 90% of his voters. You are really looking to suppress the vote of the last 5-10% who have any sort of conscience.

I am not saying this is your sole message. You also speak about policies that will appeal to YOUR base to turn out your own vote. But turning the other cheek instead of getting in the mud and taking a few swings is dumb.

Its not so much about turning the other cheek its about trying to control the narrative. The narrative right now is his comments on Ilhan and the others, and the child rape thing is forgotten. Winning or losing this fight is an irrelevance to him, whats important is to have this fight instead of anything Epstein related

You are really looking to suppress the vote of the last 5-10% who have any sort of conscience.

exactly. Hillary's "I should be 50 points ahead" comment felt particularly tone deaf from someone who'd been in public life for three decades - that is simply not the way electoral politics work. whoever said a ham sandwich would get 40% of the popular vote was absolutely right. Trump has no room for error in 2020. pick the issues that actually do drop his numbers a tad and press 'em. even if it's "hey asshole, where's your stupid wall?"

"obstructionist Dems who care more about MS-13 than US citizens & want open borders illegally blocked me from building a great beautiful wall"

This conversation is great, we definitely haven’t done this on every single monthly thread

Relitigate-Gate

Treeeeeshiip where arrrrrre you

just c+p his posts from last month's thread into this one

Can we talk instead about how uncomfortable the next week or so is going to be in the Conway household?

let’s not play into the conways’ fetishes pls

Yes, I feel like their divisive public stances re: Trump is all just foreplay, to be both blunt and gross.

50 shades of trolly cosplay

donald trump doesn't have a racist bone in his body!
he does have a racist brain, tho.
― mott the hoopleheads (voodoo chili)

AOC reading the thread

You’re right, Mr. President - you don’t have a racist bone in your body.

You have a racist mind in your head, and a racist heart in your chest.

That’s why you violate the rights of children and tell the Congresswoman who represents your home borough, to “go back to my country.” https://t.co/adlCUO7r0v

— Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) July 16, 2019

greetings lurker aoc

Missed chance for kidney hearts. u_u

anything one might say about trump is out of order

Regardless of the content of Trump’s racist statement, Democrats are going to have a hard time not taking down Pelosi’s words.

Jefferson’s Manual literally says you can’t refer to a statement by the President as racist on the House floor. pic.twitter.com/CeIJA24TS9

— Matt Fuller (@MEPFuller) July 16, 2019

Any teacher recognizes the debate they're having right now as your #1 default out: "I didn't say you're an idiot, I said what you did was idiotic."

stopped clock theory of racism

if you look at the clock a few times and it says it's not quite noon but it's within a certain margin of error, you think hey, I usually only check when it's nearly time for lunch so it's probably running a little slow or fast

if you check it by looking throughout the day and it always says it's around noon, you have a racist clock

Using decades of experience in government to pass a resolution condemning the President’s posts pic.twitter.com/QiUobys05O

— Patrick Monahan (@pattymo) July 16, 2019

"shoot someone on 5th Ave" is prob more accurately stated as he could do it, people would spend the next week arguing whether it truly was murder and then it'd be forgotten

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/453383-house-votes-against-striking-pelosi-remarks-from-record

The House voted against striking Speaker Nancy Pelosi's (D-Calif.) floor remarks blasting President Trump from the record on Tuesday after the House parliamentarian in a rare rebuke of the Speaker said her comments violated House rules.

The vote on the motion to strike Pelosi’s remarks failed in a 190-232 vote with no Democratic support. Every Republican voted in favor of the motion.

Every Republican voted in favor of the motion.
Every Republican voted in favor of the motion.
Every Republican voted in favor of the motion.
Every Republican voted in favor of the motion.
Every Republican voted in favor of the motion.

“What has really happened here is that the president and his supporters have been forced to endure months of allegations of racism,” said Representative Dan Meuser, Republican of Pennsylvania. “This ridiculous slander does a disservice to our nation.”

holy shit, is this what it's like to be red pilled. it turns out that everything i knew was wrong. thank so much, dan meuser