NL CENTRAL PREDICTATRON 2019

Phil Ervin went 6 for 6 last night for the Reds football game against the Rockies 17-9.

Coors Field...it does a batting average good!

https://www.mlb.com/news/six-hit-game-c266043102

Pretty good names on that list.

The Schnozz did it...Ernie Lombardi

Jimmie Piersall

Kirby Puckett

Chone Figgins

dakota hudson: bad at bunting, bad for america

I keep confusing him with Dakota Fanning

standings by expected win/loss record (based off of run differential)

Cubs: 55-41 (+68)
Reds: 50-44 (+29)
Cards: 49-46 (+14)
Brewers: 48-50 (-9)
Pirates: 43-52 (-54)

it must be Joey Votto's fault

This years Red's club is even more weird than usual. They seem to get shut down and score nothing then win 14-2.

David Bell has pretty much completely torched the bullpen at this point, they are cooked and I got a feeling they are going to lose quite a bit more going forward.

Best news for the Reds would be to go hard on the sell and try to flip some guys for some more arms.

I kind of like Tanner Roark...he's a guy I could see moving, but if they could sign him for 2 more at the right deal, he's a pro and pretty much out there every time his time in the rotation comes up.

Puig is also hitting well now. I'd think there would be interest in him as he could be one of those x-factor type guys for a stretch run. I think the Reds would like to extend him, but I'm guessing there is more money out there than Cincy will commit.

https://d31029zd06w0t6.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/54/2019/07/web1_onlinereds-2.jpg

Juan Graterol listed as an idealistic 205 pounds in your scorecard.

Club losing both of it's catchers to injury at the same time is pretty ominous for the rest of the season. Pitchers are a cowardly lot and seem to be easily started like deer, it seems losing their battery mate often times causes them to lose ability to pitch.

are you all going to the gun show? it's in the reds vs cardinals game this afternoon (reds in throwback sleeveless jerseys)

need to see some Harrison Bader guns

There are more people at a Northern KY gun show than at a Reds game.

-doh... Hot as it has been this weekend in Cincy, the Cards series hasn't been packed, which it usually would be.

Of course, I AM one of those silent ones that say f'all that cost, I'd rather watch them or not on TV. Most of the time the Reds play totally stupid when I turn them on TV anyway.

I think there is a portion (probably sad) that are waiting for Marty to go totally BROCKMIRE at some point this season in his final season. You can kinda hear his disgust at points, earlier when the Reds loaded the bases with no outs and then did bupkus he was like "this is why this club is 8 games under .500 going nowhere" spiel.

Brewers just hit a go-ahead grand slam in the bottom of the 8th and lost

cardinals tied a major league record with eight extra-base hits in one inning (against the pirates)

14 total bases for dejong

from rosenthal:

For all the talk of the Pirates trading Vázquez, the team shows little appetite for actually making such a move, sources say.

Vázquez, 28, will earn just $12.5 million combined in 2020-21, and the Pirates — who also hold $10 million club options on him for ’22 and ’23 — believe they can return to contention as soon as next season.

The way club officials see it, the team’s collapse and last-place standing in the NL Central stem in part from injuries at various points to starting pitchers Jameson Taillon and Trevor Williams, catcher Francisco Cervelli and right fielder Gregory Polanco. Other clubs do not hold the same view, believing the Pirates essentially are fooling themselves, and should move Vázquez at a time when his value is soaring.

“The well-run teams are realistic and have a good feel for their talent and how it stacks up to their competitors,” one executive said. “The poorly-run teams do not.

“The Rockies are a great example. They thought they were building off a 91-win team (last season) without appreciating how fortunate they were and that their true talent was well below that.”

Time will tell if the Pirates prove correct in their self-evaluation. Perhaps they are gun-shy after getting burned as buyers last season in trades for right-hander Chris Archer and reliever Keone Kela. The performance of even top closers is volatile; long-term control of relievers is generally not coveted the way it is with other players. Still, Vázquez could bring a haul.

pirates suspended a reliever last week and the bullpen coach today, which means they have as many suspensions as wins since the all-star break

Happy birthday Clint Hurdle, cardinals legend Tom Pagnozzi, and in a distant last, annoying broadcaster Ricky Horton

Man how much do the Brewers regret not signing Wade Miley right now

Reds rookie skipper David Bell has been ejected from 7.7% of the games he’s managed. That seems like an unsustainable pace, but personally I believe in him.

— Anthony Castrovince (@castrovince) July 31, 2019

End of the roster move for the Reds that could be potentially interesting is that outfielder Aristides Aquino was called up from Louisville with all of these dealings going on. Aquino is an older prospect at age 26 and was kinda going nowhere and did some shifting in his approach to get the ball up in the air and in the last two seasons has been just blasting long home runs all over the place. He hit something like 3x 450 ft. shots in a couple games a few weeks back.

At least Aquino could be in the tradition of Wily Mo Pena and Juan Francisco.

https://www.mlb.com/video/franciscos-mammoth-blast/c-19127709

zobrist played in south bend over the weekend, so i guess he's coming back

Zach Davies to the DL

that's 4/5ths of the Brewers starting rotation to the DL in like 2 weeks

Aquino does have some power.

Cards definitely look smart for not giving Albert Pujols that ginormous contract, still two years left to go. His swing is looking real slow to me.

I was just ragging on my cousin, the Cardinals Fan from New Jersey, over the Redbirds now being tied with the Mets, and that got him off the phone p quick

the alex reyes story is getting really sad. this will be the third straight season to be lost to a season ending injury.

for a very brief time, before all the injuries, his stuff was electric

Pretty good first week or so in the bigs for Aquino. The way he swings and his build reminds me a bit of Jose Bautista.

He's got three HR through six innings tonight!

Aquino hit 3 shots over 450 feet across 2 games at Louisville a few weeks ago. The video of the one to dead center was a lunar landing, it look like it was a golf shot.

Reds are back to 3 under .500 for the first time in a while, this seems to be their ceiling so far this season. Alot of people both in the media and fans seem to be waiting for them to go on a run, which they have not done. Getting Bauer and if Sonny Gray is healthy and productive, they should be able to stay in some games. Bullpen is pretty cooked though. Be nice to see Votto get hot just getting on base left and right. Suarez has tore up some pitching with his power, but the guy will look totally lost at times striking out like mad too.

We will see, any chance to parlay these good seasons by individual players into the post season is going to be decided in the next week or so. They need to win series especially head to head with Nats, Cards and Pirates. For it to be a legit playoff shot, I think they will need to rip of a week full of wins, as that would plant them near the top of the NL Wild Card and even out that 1-8 start.

reds have been jobbed by their run differential -- they're pretty good, and the NL central is not insurmountable

that said, they need to go on a run and our best beloved joey votto should fucking wake up and lead it

the reds can make a run, imo, but their problem is that there are also several other NL teams that could also go on a run - WAS, MIL, STL, NYM, ARI, SFG (?!?!). or continue a run, in the mets' case

As I said, 3 under .500 seems to be their ceiling. They have knocked on that door I think 4 or 5 times now this season and then like Sysyphus rolled back down the standings to start again.

Alright, so here's my issue with this, and really, one of my issues with this entire organization:

Everyone, from the top down, is so fucking smug.

They think they're playing chess and we're all only capable of understanding checkers. https://t.co/ilAd6DXGMI

— Jim Rosati (@northsidenotch) August 11, 2019

pirates are now 4-24 since the break. the elite closer they hung onto because they're so close to competing has made two appearances in their last 15 games because there are no save opportunities. (they didn't even use him today, for christ's sake, during which they allowed seven runs in the seventh and eighth to blow an 8-4 lead.) but at least they understand 'the game within the game'

the opportunity to be judgmental

i accept

Yu Darvish has been Scherzer-like in the second half. With Hendricks having some recent meltdowns and Jon Lester completely disintegrating it’s a pretty good sign that he’s turned things around. But I don’t expect the Cubs to go anywhere if (not when) they make the postseason.

hell of a loss for them tonight

yeah i agree, i think the cubs have a good chance to win the division and then crap out in the first round of the playoffs. unless they can somehow convince the league to let them play all their playoff games at wrigley

despite the (good) add of castellanos they've still got holes in the offense (happ/almora/kemp) and the bullpen is frightening

i think the cubs have a good chance to win the division and then crap out in the first round of the playoffs.

this is probably true of whoever ends up winning the NL Central tbh

true

although i guess the NL Central winner will have the benefit of playing the NL East winner (most likely), while the wild card survival champion will have to play the Dodgers in round 1

pretty ugly exposé of turmoil in the pirate clubhouse today in the athletic. imo they should go hire mike matheny -- it would really help me jettison all fondness for the team

Let’s slow things down here, you don’t understand what you’re saying

as the millennials say, step on my throat mike matheny

Well the Reds pretty much did what deep down I figured would happen sliding back. They have had a few starters get totally pounded in the last week.

Got to figure whoever was on the spot and picked up Aquino in their fantasy leagues are doing great in the playoff hunt. Anyone mashing 10 HRs in 16 games helps in that arena, but impressive to start in the bigs.