no, i didn't know that the June 2019 US Politics thread was nasty

his advisers are not happy
https://www.thedailybeast.com/fox-and-friends-calls-donald-trump-weak-tries-to-goad-him-into-war-with-iran

yup. this is presumably a bolton camp leak.

Iranian officials told Reuters that Trump warned Iran an attack was imminent unless they agreed to talk

When Iran did not immediately agree, Trump called off the attackhttps://t.co/Df2cgQLeLZ

— Adrienne Mahsa Varkiani (@AdrienneMahsa) June 21, 2019

cool. so the right is upset with trump for not carrying out the attacks. a good portion of the left is upset with trump because he once again displayed that he has no idea what he is doing.

there are lots of people out there who are just happy that the air strikes weren't carried out, and hope that there won't be a new war in the middle east, this time one that's even worse than iraq. but that's not a very "loud" argument, so it will be drowned out

Think war at this point is pretty much inevitable. Iran's deeply unpopular regime is basically begging for it, as it would consolidate their grip on their population (and take minds of, oh, say, the drinking water crisis, the crashed economy etc). It will not want to be seen as the one backing down. Especially not since they did keep their end of the nuclear deal.

And Trump.. Well he's Trump. He can act righteous now (what did he think before calling it off, that attacking Iran *wouldn't* lead to casualties?) but he'll soon vmic alpha male want to 'kick Iran's butt' to show USA is the greatest, strongest nation etc etc.

I don't think Trump is scared of war. I don't think Trump's scared of anything. That's part of the problem.

Never forget: https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/01/opinion/sunday/donald-the-dove-hillary-the-hawk.html

I think he's afraid of embarrassment, and war has too many variables and possibilities for embarrassment, so he's afraid of war.

When has war ever embarrassed a US president?

on the contrary, he's a sissy and fraidy cat like the usual schoolyard bully

yeah he's scared of everything, but mostly "what people will say"

Remember that I predicted a long time ago that President Obama will attack Iran because of his inability to negotiate properly-not skilled!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 11, 2013

like clockwork

on the contrary, he's a sissy and fraidy cat like the usual schoolyard bully

i believe this too, but this is exactly what i mean: he's going to get pushed from both right on left on this. it's like he has the nerd pinned up against a wall and everyone's saying "he's not going to do it. he's a fraidy cat"

Now that Obama’s poll numbers are in tailspin – watch for him to launch a strike in Libya or Iran. He is desperate.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 9, 2012

he is also afraid of blood, but maybe that's just in person

on the contrary, he's a sissy and fraidy cat like the usual schoolyard bully

yeah but the schoolyard bully doesn't have like the equivalent of the varsity football team fighting their fights for them.

i don't think he's capable of really mentally gaming out much of the consequences here. it seems like it will take very little of the sort of goading from the likes of Fox and Friends as shown in the link above before he's full steam ahead.

There's like a dozen variations on that tweet at least. I think at this point he's basically done everything he ever (often inaccurately) lambasted Obama for.

https://www.reddit.com/r/TrumpCriticizesTrump/

I like that trump tweet above just starting: "Donald J. Trump
✔
@realDonaldTrump
Replying to @realDonaldTrump
....Death to America. "

It's probably fair to say that Donald Trump is approaching this precarious situation as if it were an episode of Monday Night Raw. You use what you know.

that's right folks, we're bringing back The Iron Sheik. tremendous, tremendous ratings.

Pareene on the Dems' cowardice

"Pelosi and her allies’ opposition to escalation in this largely one-sided war quickly reached comic heights. By the end of May, she was arguing that she was declining to open an impeachment inquiry into the president out of love of country. When a caucus argument broke out over the White House leaning on former counsel Don McGahn to ignore a subpoena to testify, Pelosi stood firm: “This isn’t about politics at all. It’s about patriotism. It’s about the strength we need to have to see things through,” she said, according to Politico. 


There’s the bizarre anti-politics of center-liberalism stated plainly: that the American people don’t want to see conflict, and so therefore you mustn’t be seen as being responsible for it. Pelosi and her allies believe they are nobly withholding from their base (which they define as being distinct from “the American people”) the sugar high of aggressive oversight, for their own good. There is no sense that a new political reality can be forged, even with a foil as corrupt and unpopular as Trump. "

https://newrepublic.com/article/154113/democratic-party-fighting-spirit-give-war-chance

It's a terrific article.

I like that trump tweet above just starting: "Donald J. Trump
✔
@realDonaldTrump
Replying to @realDonaldTrump
....Death to America.

wonder what subconscious persuasion expert Scott Adams thinks of this

pelosi is a coward

It's a political calculation that impeachment investigations will energize the 45 base more than his opposition base, and cost freshmen Dems in purple districts. I'm sure she's working from extensive polling.

Perhaps where she's wrong is that she's only considering effects on the 2020 election, and forgetting that moral clarity (however we may disagree) is one way the Republicans established a foothold in the collective minds of the Silent and Boomer generations, and moral clarity in opposition to corruption, injustice, and environmental collapse is how Dems can own an overwhelming mindshare in younger generations, for decades to come. She's playing a short game instead of a long one.

agree with the moral clarity argument

plus there's the consideration that actually engaging in a political action (like impeachment proceedings) can and no doubt will move political opinion. the only coherent strategy I can glean from her behavior is that she doesn't think she has enough of her caucus on board, but you have to assume plenty of the current holdouts are persuadable, especially as more and more impeachable conduct is aired out in public.

She's playing a short game instead of a long one.

Not entirely unexpected in someone creeping up on 80.

xp I know it's been mentioned before, but I think part of the reason for the caution moving forward could be timing relative to 2020

even the vulnerable democrats in districts that voted for trump in 2016 (like katie porter in SoCal) are starting to turn toward impeachment. i think part of pelosi's plan (whether it makes sense or not) is to appear like she was forced to impeach by her party, rather than forcing her party to impeach. if that's the case, she appears to be well on her way

fuck her polling

ultimately I don't think war is avoidable with these people in charge BUT I can't remember an american president coming out and explaining that he refrained from retaliation by citing a relatively small (by u.s. warmongering standards) number of brown ppl who would die as a consequence

am I crazy or is this....somehow....refreshing?

it would be if for one second anyone believe that were his real motives.

true enough

xposts It would be nice to know how much of the impeachment unpopularity in these polls is in fact a consequence of Pelosi's harping on about how imprudent etc it would be

He's the dude who slams you against a wall with his fist drawn back and aimed at your face and then suddenly releases your lapels and says 'nah, not today' before strutting on down the road. A real saint, in other words, and totally not someone you have to worry about pulling the same shit or worse tomorrow.

His 'you're welcome, 150 people I chose not to kill today' shit is a total power play.

it's a refreshing contrast to his "only 64 people died in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria" stance

lost count of the civilian deaths caused by coalition forces over last few years anyway

however transparently disingenuous, the president breaking protocol by making pentagon death spec public and "reasoning" about disproportion would make for a great (if accidental) precedent

he should be asked next time: how many Iranians are gonna die?

even the vulnerable democrats in districts that voted for trump in 2016 (like katie porter in SoCal) are starting to turn toward impeachment. i think part of pelosi's plan (whether it makes sense or not) is to appear like she was forced to impeach by her party, rather than forcing her party to impeach. if that's the case, she appears to be well on her way

My thinking until now

yeah I had hoping for that too, now I'm doubting it

something very weird is going on with all of this

and you don't know what it is

do you

Mr jones blah blah

This brinksmanship with iran was completely avoidable.

with something stupid and insane coming from the WH daily we have to remember there are still children being held in deplorable conditions

https://www.apnews.com/46da2dbe04f54adbb875cfbc06bbc615

I genuinely believe Trump may want to avoid war with Iran and realizes he's been suckered into this situation by Bolton and friends, but he's so far out of his depth that he doesn't have any clue what to do to dig himself out of it. I'm not particularly optimistic about any of this, but there was a point when things were starting to look scary with North Korea, and they were able to back down from that without a major disaster.