The car's on fire and there's no driver at the wheel - The Tory leadership elections

It could in theory be sooner if the first polls are 75-25 to Boris, and Jeremy decides that he'd rather not fork out the £150k that that CCHQ want both of them to pay for the hustings. And possibly by sparing Boris that hassle, he might have a spare cabinet post going?

But more likely he'll figure that just by getting Boris to repeat all the various and contradictory things that he's been variously saying to get backers from Steve Baker to Matt Hancock, he might yet win.

wasn't the 'May only resigning when it's clear her successor has confidence of Commons' thing a response to reassure people concerned that the tories could bring forward the parliamentary summer recess (to shortly before the end of the leadership contest), and the new PM would then have a month in office without having to face parliament

My take on it is that he'll need to enter into new DUP talks. Doubt there will be any Tory resistance as no chance of any of that shower of cunts triggering an election.

“I’ve been the underdog right from the start and I like to prove people wrong. And the way I’m going to win this race is by showing that the best way to Brexit is by sending the European Union a prime minister they can engage with, a tough negotiator, someone who has a bottom line and won’t give up until I get what is right for our country. But also someone who is prepared to walk away.”

A tough negotiator prepared to shoot him self in the foot if he doesn’t get what he wants

So the race for pm boils down to the age old question of:

The EU mostly resembles:
a) Nazi Germany
b) A Soviet prison

If a), vote Bozza. If b), vote Hunt.

stalag stalin

Srsly, I know being pm is BJ's dream, but why *now*? Why nick the job when surely he must know he cannot do "better" than May, cannot deliver anything other than being the PM overseeing a no-deal crash out of the EU, and it will end a failure? Am I missing something that can make him the Churchillian legernd he wants to be? Is he really this daft and power mad? Is that all there is to it?

something might turn up. something always has, all his life.

I also ask myself those questions LBI. All the losers will get another shot at this in 12 - 36 months time

OK maybe not McVey

he’s driven by power. like a dog chasing a car he’ll do it if he’s got the slightest sniff. like a dog chasing a car he doesn’t know what to do with it when he’s got it.

more like a dog chasing the front wheels of a tractor

A dog that hasn't been neutered.

Thx NV, 'cause I felt half foolish even asking those questions. As if I'm the one who's mad, not the Tories (when in fact it's both obv).

"It could in theory be sooner if the first polls are 75-25 to Boris, and Jeremy decides that he'd rather not fork out the £150k that that CCHQ want both of them to pay for the hustings. And possibly by sparing Boris that hassle, he might have a spare cabinet post going?"

It's a shame Hunt can't just give Johnson a walk over because it would be too much like a May style coronation

Yeah i think they'll want to go thru the motions

The prospect of Boris Johnson going through an entire month without saying something stupid seems implausible - if that is, and it's an enormous if, he's actually put under any pressure and held up to proper scrutiny.

He seems to be better at keeping quiet in the run up to elections than he is at any of the other things he is paid for

It doesn't especially matter whether he says anything dodgy or not. He's said enough already and not enough people who will be voting give a shit.

True but I still like to see the cunt squirm, if only for a short while.

unfettered boris is something that will unwind badly for him in election conditions... well imo anyway. they daren't even let unfettered boris out in front of fucking tory members - what hope in a GE?

I think he could win a GE or at least have a decent shot at it, under this scenario: a) he wins leadership, b) he goes straight to Brussels, c) he comes back with nothing, says EU is being obstructionist, only solution is no-deal, d) he does a deal with Farage, whereby Farage promises not to put up candidates in any seat where there is a no-deal supporting Tory candidate, e) he calls an election.

If that all happened quickly enough it might catch Labour in the middle of a civil war with no clear brexit message and the Tories might pull it off, at least as a minority govt with support from DUP and Brexit Party. Of course a lot of things would have to go right for them, but sadly I don't think it's impossible for the Tories to win the next election.

I definitely think the Tories can win the next election.

he does a deal with Farage, whereby Farage promises not to put up candidates in any seat where there is a no-deal supporting Tory candidate,

Whats the likelihood of this? I'm not seeing it

and is that even really a good deal for Boris anyway? How many Peterboroughs would Labour need, not that many

It's either that, or he somehow gets a version of May's deal through. The EU aren't going to budge, and the current parliament will impede no deal.

I don't see how he wins an election unless Farage stands aside completely, not just where there are no-deal MPs. And standing aside completely is untenable for Farage

happy “it’s OK for conservative MPs to physically assault women” discourse day everyone

farage will stand aside for 1 a seat at the negotiating table or maybe 2 his knighthood

the only thing I can confidently predict is that when a GE is called, on R4 there will be a lot of interviews with trad labour voters declaring they are voting for the brexit party and the phrase "keep Corbyn out of no.10" will be used about two thousand times and the word "marxist" will used an additional two thousand times. What Peterborough should have taught Farage is that he needs to start spending some of that dark money on ground troops.

I can't see the Brexit Party even getting the previous UKIP share if Johnson goes into a snap election backing No Deal. I think Johnson would win and the reluctant Tories will fall into line behind him.

Farage has left politics and returned to the fray more than pretty much anyone else. He could frame it as retiring for lifestyle/health reasons. He could just go "Brexit PM was all I wanted, job done" - after all he exists to put pressure on the Tories and externally influence policy.

It's probably unrealistic because they're doing so well in the polls but that might not continue with Johnson as PM.

Thing is that in the event of No Deal Britain would be forced back to the negotiating table almost immediately with less power than ever and it would be an unprecedented humiliation for the Tories. The damage to the country, to businesses and to hundreds of thousands of people who need affordable food and medicine would be done by then though.

How many Peterboroughs would Labour need, not that many

I feel I'm not following you here - Peterborough was a Labour hold, but one where 6% of the BP votes going to the Tories* or 10% of the Tory votes going to the BP, would have been a loss.

(or 6% more going to the Tories than to Labour, rather)

happy “it’s OK for conservative MPs to physically assault women” discourse day everyone

Farage has been framing the Brexit Party as "I take my eye off the ball and trust the Tories to Tory, and this is what happens!" - he'd probably find it difficult to go through that cycle again - but he's a cheeky chappie like Boris, he'd probably get away with it.

last sentence very much “quiet bit out loud” from lilico here

Another thing. Suppose the protester had been a bloke & the restrainer had been a much larger bloke, with a similar weight & strength advantage to Field here. Would you be declaring the larger bloke a bully or heavy-handed or accusing him of assault?

— Andrew Lilico (@andrew_lilico) June 20, 2019

also this is why labour should continue to form their brexit policy on contingency - they need to wait to see whether BJ pivots to NDB (with sir nigel riding off into the sunset) and then calibrate/triangulate from there. the good thing is that they have been utterly consistent from day dot that they are utterly opposed to NDB

xp what if the protester had actually been a rabid wolf? what about THAT?

Not sure about this: Field is seen here being rough, but noisy disruption of big speech by low carbon Minister is also a mild form of violence. Greenpeace likes to have its cake and eat it. Very Boris ! https://t.co/B3bz4dAhvj

— MichaelWhite (@michaelwhite) June 21, 2019

The spectrum of violence starts with being uncivil is clearly one of the themes of the summer.

Or a Middle Eastern male. Field's self-defence claims would suddenly appear more 'credible' in some quarters. He wouldn't have even felt the need to publicly apologise.

xp

How has he not been sacked yet?

Cos they know who votes for them.

grabbing women by the neck is free speech

I don't see how he wins an election unless Farage stands aside completely, not just where there are no-deal MPs. And standing aside completely is untenable for Farage

Because we're in the UK and it's full of right wing cunts?

Greenpeace protestor was wearing a provocative sash, who is the real aggressor here?

I was reading some pseopholgist Twitter thread yesterday that suggested the Brexit Party could split the vote to such an extent you could see some weird anomalies like strongly Leave areas being represented by LibDem MPs (I guess maybe in the South West?)

It also analysed the 100 or so most marginal seats and on average they aren't especially Brexity (almost exactly 50/50 Leave Remain vote). So a campaign that focuses entirely on Brexit could go very badly for the Tories.

psephology? *drake looking glum*
phrenology? *drake going yay*

Dread to thing what a phrenologist would make of Mark Francois's head.

Hah, psepholgist.