The car's on fire and there's no driver at the wheel - The Tory leadership elections

Johnson is too far ahead to be touched now but the picture could change heavily for the others.

― Matt DC,

Does Johnson being this far ahead change calculations for backers that they can afford for some of them to peel off and support Raab, to game the final two?

Also I've no idea how relevant this is

Want to hear what Torbay (63% Leave, 14,283 Conservative majority) thinks of Boris Johnson? Listen from 1min55 onwards... 👂🏾👂🏾👂🏾 https://t.co/MDdo4Vb0k0

— Ash Sarkar (@AyoCaesar) June 15, 2019

thats pretty loud cheering for Ash's criticisms of Boris in a heavy leave/Tory area - but I've no idea how representative the audience are

most of those cheering don't have a vote in the leadership contest: part of my argument that boris can't become tory leader has been that the tory party has historically been very good at adapting to survive and boris-as-leader will wreck it, and the party knows this

but i think may's time in office has very badly damaged tory adaptive mechanisms though (the damage is still semi-invisible: but boris being chosen is a key symptom)

The crowd reactions in that recording are a tonic

I am clowning myself by *checks notes* wondering whether someone who constantly fawns over Tories might be doing something a bit questionable by hanging out with a pro-apartheid group?

No, that's not what I'm saying at all.

(I have no particular desire to be Cap'n Save-a-The-Freedom-Association, but "their dads were probably pro-apartheid back when it was the position of half of the cabinet" is closer to the mark, AFAIK)

I mean the idea that this is all a game to her - which I don't believe. For example:

tee-hee-heeing about politics that cast people into misery and sometimes death

That'd be pretty serious, but I've not seen it.

most of those cheering don't have a vote in the leadership contest: part of my argument that boris can't become tory leader has been that the tory party has historically been very good at adapting to survive and boris-as-leader will wreck it, and the party knows this

First - are the reactions relevant in any way? Does it make a difference any difference that they are reacting like that?

Second - does Boris-as-leader wreck it while Farage is a force? Aren't they kind of hemmed in? How do they see off the Farage threat without Boris or similar?

Idle thoughts department: wondering if Stanley Johnson was on an expat salary package in Brussels that paid for his sons’ Eton College fees.

Right, but there's probably no solution for the Tory party - or none they'll take.

does it make a difference any difference - to what? the leadership contest? no. voting patterns in torbay? it's an indicator of the feelings of a room full of people, all kinds of info and weighting needed to extrapolate from it

all the elements in yr second question are aspects of the wreck, which is already here for them -- it's kind of an expansion of what i mean by "symptom" (tho there are other elements at work also)

to what? the leadership contest?

yes, what difference to this I guess? Is Boris the shoe-in thats imagined? If the audience in a strong Tory/Leave seat is indicative of Tory party members surely this has some relevance? If not then it doesn't

— what's it telling us? that many people really dislike and distrust him
— is it telling us that enough people countrywide -- able to vote and etc -- dislike him to take an opponent over 50%? we don't know enough to extrapolate
— if people not present hear this clip will they change their vote (this is what i assumed you meant by "make a difference")? maybe! boris is not implacably popular in the party! but they are in a massive panic, hedged at all ends and faced with ruin! their judgment will continue to be bad, for them as well as everyone else!

Any Questions audiences can vary from region to region but tend to be quite remainish in my experience, or sometimes they just love cheering guests, even if what they are saying is completely inverse to what the last guest they cheered said. Although the bbc would probably say this is a sign of a healthy mix in the audience - I think they clapping monkeys!

although I love it when a guest makes a trenchantly milking the audience comment and there is a moment where you can tell they are expecting a cheer or even just some hushed disapproval .. and it's followed by complete silence.

I think QT is more of a pull for vaguely fascist brexit ultras, meh who wants to be on the radio?

If you want a handle on listener thoughts, gird yourself for a listen to Any Answers.

— if people not present hear this clip will they change their vote (this is what i assumed you meant by "make a difference")? maybe!

no, not this. I wasn't thinking this would change anyones mind. The question was...how many of the people in the audience are Tories? If a lot then why are they so anti Boris when they're supposedly not?

Calzino's answers seem to cover the reasons for the cheering pretty well though, to counter that

lots of tories are very anti-boris!! but (possibly) not a majority

They all hated Cameron and they all hate Boris but come the GE, they will still vote Conservative.

I know they'll vote Conservative, but the question is will they definitely vote Boris for leader as easily as the odds are suggesting (landslide)?

Doesn't matter if he wins, which he will.

hm

Look, does it matter? Rory's parliament (church across the street) will bring him down.

Gapes GAME OF RUMPS: or "Take Away that Bauble"
https://c8.alamy.com/comp/HT13K9/take-away-that-bauble-cromwell-dissolving-the-long-parliament-1850-HT13K9.jpg

they all hate Boris but come the GE, they will still vote Conservative

suzy otm

"take away that Raable"

is that shit on tv now? jesus help us, time for another ale and a nap.

apparently, i'm watching my email re-index instead (currently it has 69 hours and 8 minutes to go)

nice

Have to confess that I watched the Labour deputy leadership debate in 2007, I remember that Harriet Harman was just about ok, and Hazel Blears was the absolute worst.

No interest at all in watching this one.

Gove says of Javid: "He's a hero, he has come from the background he has to achieve so much, he doesn't need an American president for all of us to recognise he's an amazing guy". Genuinely uplifting moment of the #C4Debate

— Jane Merrick (@janemerrick23) June 16, 2019

is this real or a parody?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9NMe-wXUAAKM4y.jpg

it *seems* to be real?

Every older person should die with dignity and respect#C4debates #HastobeHunt pic.twitter.com/QUD77Cpgxi

— Jeremy Hunt (@Jeremy_Hunt) June 16, 2019

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/4k_RdafinYw/maxresdefault.jpg

sort out your fucking grammar cunt

all he's doing is repeating the basic tenet that underpins austerity: dead people don't claim. Unlucky for this cunt that he needs dead people to vote tho!

look at the state of that collar

didn't fastening your top button properly used to be a fucking religious act to tory twats?

TS: Hastobe Hunt vs Hudson Hawke

Stop the presses! Hancock is backing Boris.

A lot of Hancock backers other teams thought they had in the bag are heading to Rory, I hear.

— Harry Cole (@MrHarryCole) June 16, 2019

Hancock looks like a snivelling little creep, talks like a snivelling little creep and acts like a snivelling little creep - so he is obviously going to back who he thinks is going to win because he is a snivelling little creep.

he's blown his moderate credentials and is too insignificant + useless to gain a proper job from doing it - but that hasn't stopped the cunt progressing so far! but he will lose some friends for doing this.

there is one particular failed tory candidate in my neck of the woods who has been stanning for him for years + who might be committing hari-kari over him him backing boris tonight, well I hope so anyway.

When I withdrew from the race, I said that while I put myself forward as the candidate of the future, it’s clear from the results from last week — and talking to members around the country — that the party wants a leader for the unique circumstances of now. It’s clear the party wants a Brexiteer. While for me the future is about so much more than the details of Brexit, I am firm in my belief that the best way through is to deliver Brexit with a deal. I believe that Boris has the unique personality to bring the party together behind a Brexit deal.

I've seen a few people suggest that Johnson might be able to get parliament to vote through something that is basically akin to May's deal before Oct 31, due to having him more credibility with brexiters than May, tory MPs being more confident that he could sell this to the electorate as being something other than a sell-out, rising awareness that there isn't a better alternative etc.

Presumably this is what Hancock is banking on, given that he's repeatedly said he doesn't believe any prime minister would be able to push through no-deal because parliament will block them, and surely isn't deluded enough to think that Johnson is actually going to negotiate a substantially different brexit deal over the next 4 months?

However, Hancock said Johnson, the former foreign secretary, had given assurances he would govern as a consensual, one-nation Conservative, and would support the needs of business. On both issues, Hancock said, he would “hold him to that”.

he's a self deceptive, self-interested boot-licking coward and hope he gets a really shit position in the boris cab and disappears without a trace.

despite hating life with this eternal tory government and fretting for my own existence. I love the idea of May helplessly watching on as something identical to her deal with a tiny bit off added boris flam finally pisses it through parliament, first time, as she screams into the abyss.

truly we are blessed

Matt Hancock into 6/1 second favourite to be next Chancellor. pic.twitter.com/m7aBlRKZfm

— Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) June 17, 2019

put the NHS on the blockchain

I call app britain

Liz Truss is the only hope for Stop Boris contingent now!

I love the bit where he puts his finger behind his ear 🤣😀😂😭@johnmcdonnellMP on Rory Stewart

pic.twitter.com/k3udxT7eet

— ARTIST TAXI DRIVER (@chunkymark) June 17, 2019

fucking love McD more than family.