The car's on fire and there's no driver at the wheel - The Tory leadership elections

bogarding a safe labour seat for starters is mr 40K a week!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sbk7BZXAeg

I find him less convincing as an erstwhile one nation Tory who just wants to be PM than most of the other possibilities

If there is dark money flowing into the Johnson campaign in exchange for policy then yes it would be good to know that now and not after he's made PM. I don't believe he's a One Nation Tory or a secret liberal or anything else but his guiding principle has always been self-advancement and self-promotion.

I'm not convinced he would self-immolate his Premiership by going straight for No Deal because the consequences would involve either being ousted, losing an election or forced into a humiliating return to the negotiating table.

If he does I think its more likely to be through stupidity and miscalculation rather than because Arron Banks has paid for it. But then maybe that's just naivety speaking. If it does happen I think we're looking at the obliteration of the Conservative Party for a generation.

what are the options? he could bring back the May deal with some boris branded flannel attached. still wouldn’t get past the DUP. probably just end up kicking the can again and again. at some point somebody has to do something though - hazards already flashing on the dashboard of the economy

leader of the conservative muslim forum drawing a comparison between boris and hitler on the today programme. lovely stuff

The alternative I guess is he calls an election in expectation of winning it but there isn't really time and we're still in the same situation if he does, or if there's a hung Parliament with the Tories as largest party.

Do we think there's any chance of Jeremy Hunt springing a surprise?

would you bet against any of them not getting dark campaign money for policy

does anyone really believe that the obliteration of one of two options could occur for a generation

Hope not. Hunt has survived through 9 years of being successively awful in each portfolio, he’s much less likely to bow to pressure.

He'd have to get caught fucking a corpse for his vote to collapse enough for Jeremy Cunt to spring a surprise imo.

going back to the tax cut thing that would devastate the Scot Tories. Although it was just signalling to the gallery stuff it probably is a taste of the complete lack of foresight and thought to come and perhaps it shows his team only truly have him under control when he's out of sight.

not stoked for anything that's coming right now.

Polly Toynbee vs Charles Moore re BJ on Today right now. Thanks BBC.

what’s his brexit platform in that election though? given the party is existentially split on the question. failing to see how he reconciles the zugzwang without leaning on the milquetoast tory wets and pivoting to no deal for that election

but then at the same time as matt says that sets his premiership on fire and would be a very serious situation for a deeply unserious man

I think Hunt & Gove wld be 'stronger', more autocratic PMs. mb the 'anyone but Boris' crew will get behind Gove

If Raab gets a decent headwind he could split the hard Brexit vote and prevent either of them getting on the final ballot.

Is there a single Remain Tory in the race or have they all decided there's just no point?

― Matt DC,

Given the strong numbers, could brexiters look at this and think we can split the hard brexit vote and make sure both are on the final ballot, Boris has voters to spare that could go to Raab if they wanted too game it?

Stewart is the ideal candidate from a Labour POV bc he can't possibly bring in the Tory right and Brexit crew, so he wld probably lose any election. Gove or Johnson would just have to appeal to a few more centrists than Corbyn, which isn't too hard to imagine

xps

It's strange listening to Polly these days without thinking about recently read accounts about her dad getting blind drunk with his soviet agent best pal Donald Maclean and trashing numerous flats!

If he's in the last two (and unless he fucks a corpse he is), then he's the next PM.

given that a lot of the focus on boris’ campaign has been about his lack of moral core - I’m dubious about his ability to bring cameroonian social liberals back into the fold. he will probably try a turbo charged version of the may strategy - maximise the white vote.

he was quite punchy and dead eyed in his launch presser. now he’s refusing to do debates. I’m worried that he’s met w bannon, gauged the nation’s frustration, seen how may got away with a lot due to “stubbornness” and taken that recent poll at face value that showed GBP would overwhelmingly welcome a strong (ie authoritarian) leader right now... troubling cocktail

From what I can see Rory has generated a ton of noise and one effect is that he has cut space for any of Johnson's rivals. the viable alternatives haven't cut through at all have they? It might already be it for any of them, if you go by first impressions.

My feeling is his Brexit platform in a GE will be the same handwavey blustering Churchillian bollocks as normal. Question is whether enough voters fall for it.

Question is whether enough voters fall for it.

How many of the voters that would fall for, have already decamped to Farage though? This brings them back?

What would Churchill do about Brexit I wonder?*

* This is a joke I am not doing this

hunt has already asked “what would churchill think about boris ducking debates?” lmao

How many of the voters that would fall for, have already decamped to Farage though? This brings them back?

Perhaps, yeah. It did in the early years of May's leadership.

appropriate that the opinion of a dead guy that used to often nod off and soil himself half way through incoherent rambles is very germane to the subject here!

i mean lol what the undiluted imperialist and massive racist churchill did was yard-sale the empire to save the heartland so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

iirc it was Jess Phillips two weeks ago. I see a pattern.

― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 13 June 2019 12:24 (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

If we add Diane Abbott, does the pattern get clearer, or more blurry, clearer, or more blurry?

(I'm aware this joke will be lost on those with perfect eyesight, but fuck 'em)

Perhaps, yeah. It did in the early years of May's leadership.

I don't know if Brexit Party voters come back if they choose someone else, I'm not sure how many come back even if they do choose Boris.

Depends on your view of how long-term a serious Brexit Party is, whether they're going to be a real factor, if they'd do some kind of pact or not. That section of the electorate has surely been hardened and Brexit Party seem a lot more professional than ukip, if still overly reliant on the big man up front for goals

Is there a single Remain Tory in the race or have they all decided there's just no point?

rip sam gyimah

There was a guy knocked out yesterday I'd never even heard of.

The Brexit Party isn't especially interested in winning seats, it exists to change the policies of the Tory Party. If Johnson or Raab wins then they've done their job and from then on it's about putting enough electoral pressure on the Tories to ensure they fall in line, but not so much they shred the vote and let Labour in.

iirc it was Jess Phillips two weeks ago. I see a pattern.

― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 13 June 2019 12:24 (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

If we add Diane Abbott, does the pattern get clearer, or more blurry, clearer, or more blurry?

― Andrew Farrell, Friday, 14 June 2019 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Really blurry. Are you saying you stan for the woman who boasted about abusing Diane Abbott AND Diane Abbott?!

Fuck I'm really impressed.

Jeremy Hunt: 'What would Churchill say of Johnson hiding away?'

all politics must now be conducted according to the presumed opinions of someone who died over 50 years ago

WWCD

A step up from Founding Fathers™ worship.

Sorry poster |||| was alreday on it upthread.

dead churchy still having a big influence on the conservative party membership, heck he hangs out with most of 'em.

The Brexit Party isn't especially interested in winning seats, it exists to change the policies of the Tory Party. If Johnson or Raab wins then they've done their job and from then on it's about putting enough electoral pressure on the Tories to ensure they fall in line, but not so much they shred the vote and let Labour in.

― Matt DC,

Yes but what if voters disagree and vote for them in sufficient number? Whats to stop Peterborough repeating?

If Raab or Boris wins have they done their job? Is that enough for them of for their voters? By itself thats meaningless to them

and even if their interest isn't in winning seats, does that change once that becomes a possibility

Really blurry. Are you saying you stan for the woman who boasted about abusing Diane Abbott AND Diane Abbott?!

I think he means that no one cares when Abbott pals around with Tories she knew as a kid, or goes to the Spectator party or whatever. But there's literally nothing than can be gained by a) encouraging another pile-on on Diane Abbott or b) adding to the total sum of conversation about Jess Phillips in any way.

I'd be impressed if that is what he means.

This all started from me pulling a garbage tweet from MLC and he being the only person who put a ridiculous, positive spin on it - and then it turned out he was a fan. He was asked questions as to why he'd go down a road few have travelled and we've yet to get an answer.

Two weeks or so ago he was giving William Empson a run for his money on a reading of a throwaway joke about me 'trolling' Jess Phillips out of the Labour Party, trying to connect that to gutter bullshit from UKIP people.

Forgive me for not quite buying his reasoning on anything whatsoever.

Hancock out.

Will anyone ever notice the inconsequential numpt again? Is what not many people are thinking.

https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/884/521/353.gif

well, he's had his half hour

oof