What Do You MENA (Middle East, North Africa and other nearby Political Hotspots) 2019

I guess what I'm wondering is does Rivlin immediately ask another MK to form a government two hours from now, or does the Knesset still have time to dissolve even if Netanyahu misses his deadline?

Latest report is that Knesset will vote on dissolution in about an hour and a half so I guess the answer is, Knesset has to break up now if it's going to keep a non-Bibi from getting a shot.

short thread

What’s about to go down in the Knesset is the wildest political moment I can recall. I’m 95% confident that the Knesset will vote to dissolve, but there’s still a small chance of an international Likud coup to oust Netanyahu 1/

— (((Michael Koplow))) (@mkoplow) May 29, 2019

nm that small chance apparently they did vote to dissolve but could've been hilarious

september election seems a bit of a long run up time

I’m still surprised how little attention this seems to be getting. This is quite likely the end of Bibi and could very well be the end of Likud’s dominance, couldn’t it?

I don't know, I'll believe in the end of Bibi when I see it. It's like Berlusconi, he's never gone. Just one thing after the other, trying to shield himself from the law, dragging everyone further and further into the mud. Frankly, it's boring.

Fred OTM.

I don’t think it’s getting more attention partially because the reason behind the gov collapse (military exemptions for charedim) doesn’t fit neatly into the West’s interests in the conflict (even if ultimately ousting Bibi would have an impact in that area as well one could imagine).

I don't think it's at all clear this is the end of Bibi or the end of Likud dominance. I don't see what other political bloc has the ability to govern. With a new election, some parties may clear the threshold who didn't before, some may fall below who made it before, and the calculus of seats will likely be slightly different; and Netanyahu only fell one vote short of a governing coalition, so it makes sense for him to roll the dice. On the other hand, what "makes sense" means is "makes sense for someone whose only goal is to remain in power, no matter how much chaos and expense it causes the country," or, more charitably, "makes sense for someone whose ego is so overwhelming that he thinks the country is helpless without his strong hand, which thus has to remain on the steering wheel by any means necessary."

Lots of things could happen. The next election could return a Knesset where Netanyahu could put together a weak government dependent on favors to small parties to his right. Or there could be a Likud revolt followed by a unity government with a non-Netanyahu Likud PM and Gantz joining. (Gantz has already said Blue and White is open to participating in a coalition with post-Netanyahu Likud.) Or I guess if Blue and White improves their standing thanks to nationwide Netanyahu fatigue (which I do think is real to some extent) I guess there could be a Gantz-led government (which I emphasize would not really be on the left though it would include the left-wing parties.)

the reason behind the gov collapse (military exemptions for charedim)

One thing I don't get is whether this is the real reason -- I mean, it's the proximate reason, but there's also some chatter that people really are tired of Netanyahu's constant attempts to make the state his fiefdom and that even on the right he is no longer seen as indispensable; what do you think?

I think it's a combination of two things. One - in order to secure the majority Bibi had to cannibalize other smaller right-wing groups which made his coalition extremely tenuous and gave outsized power to individual members like Lieberman. Two - Lieberman used that outsized power to demand the end to charedi military exemptions and refused to budge. If Bibi had more working room or Lieberman hadn't put his foot down then Bibi would have another government in place right now. I do think it's possible Likud could've made a coalition with someone other than Bibi in charge but I think these other two issues are much more critical.

I think Bennett + Shaked will almost certainly make it into the government this time around.

Isn't that what Theresa May tried to do, form a coalition government with far right Irish religious extremists or something? Worked out well for her.

No, she just bribed a bunch of trolls, chancers and right wing evangelicals in Northern Ireland with a cool billion quid to vote with her government - true to fashion, they took the money and voted against her anyway.

Not that I should need to school Americans on these people as their forebears and their descendants are responsible for so much of the shittiest aspects of US history.

Poor Sudan. They get rid of their dictator but now the military is killing the peaceful protesters

https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/06/04/sudan-halt-attacks-protesters

Once the military had recovered from the confusion around Mr Bashir's overthrow it regrouped and the most hard line elements took control.

This explains the pre-eminence of the RSF commander, Mohammed "Hemedti" Hamadan whose personal ruthlessness in Darfur always made him the most likely leader of a counter-revolution.

Unlike many of the military elite "Hemedti" is an outsider.

From a rural background he has no family ties or sentimental affiliation with the young middle class protesting on the streets of the Khartoum.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-48517768

I'm torn on the tank ship attacks. On the one hand, I think Iran is smart enough to do it, and it is pretty smart. On the other, while it would be stupid for Saudi Arabia to do it, they clearly are that stupid.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/japanese-oil-tanker-owner-says-us-is-wrong-about-gulf-attack

it's pretty crazy who the us had such a definitive answer in like 24 hrs .

how*

morsi's death after years in solitary confinement not receiving anywhere near adequate medical care will not be looked on kindly by historians

a lot of ppl in the sudanese diaspora arranging protests, raising attention and trying to put international pressure on the transitional military council at what cld be a critical time. with the state controlling all of the media and lots of ppl in rural sudan relying heavily on the radio and an underfunded & vulnerable opposition movement, there seems to be a lot of pessimism and uncertainty over the plans for elections and concerns they'll end up with someone like sisi backed by the arab league and china, who are talking a lot about stability, and russia, who are also raising very legitimate concerns abt extremists

Forget your Danish film critic's armchair speculations this is really good on the tanker episode:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/19/donald-trump-reckless-iran-policy-casts-doubt-us-global-leader

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/19/jamal-khashoggi-killing-saudi-crown-prince-mohammed-bin-salman-evidence-un-report

Huge if true: Turkey ruling party set to lose Istanbul election

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48739256

There was no way for them to win without fixing it and no way of fixing it without making it obvious so it was seen locally by a lot of people as a huge indicator of whether AKP would go fully down the route of squashing democracy when it doesn’t suit them. The question is whether they’ll try to invalidate the results but idk if that is likely to happen twice.

The latter is obviously very much a question mark still. Even so, obvious fixing hasn't stopped the AKP before, so it is still somewhat surprising imo.

interview w/ matti friedman (who i like a lot tho i still need to read his latest book) on a topic that was v close to my mind when i started the first MENA thread - how israel is easier to understand in the context of the middle east than in the context of europe

https://www.timesofisrael.com/nobody-hijacked-israel-its-just-not-what-its-pioneers-thought-theyd-created/

relatedly (sorta) is how surprised i am whenever i see naive leftists suggesting that mizrahim might be partners w/ palestinians in challenging the israeli elite ashkenazi status quo - as if they don't realize that mizrahim are far more right-wing and "middle eastern" than ashkenazim and that utopian + peace focused politicians have always come from that so-called elite.

he links to this article from 2015 that is related (but more about mizrachi music) and might also be interesting to ilxors/ilmers:
https://www.tabletmag.com/jewish-arts-and-culture/music/193162/israels-happiness-revolution

interesting piece, he could spell out a bit more explicitly what values and opinions h"Middle-eastern-ness" is supposed to represent

Is Catch-67 worth getting? Anybody checked it out yet?

Seeing lots of quoted favorable reviews of Catch-67- The Left, the Right, and the Legacy of the Six Dy War by Micah Goodman, but I haven't read it and don't know anyone who has

Wonder if its a response to Guy Laron's book, which makes the case for a months long premediation for a war of aggression.

ot sanpaku but have u seen this?

Political ideology predicts moral foundations, rather than the reverse, in panel data, suggesting that moral intuitions are not the root of political differences#SocSciResearchhttps://t.co/Ef5u72ybkV pic.twitter.com/lnIE1AtUp2

— Matt Grossmann (@MattGrossmann) July 30, 2019

Mordy, I'm still interested, but to me moral principles are orthogonal to more deeper seated psychology like the disgust response. This paper argues ideology -> morality. I'd argue the emotional brain -> either, which accords better with what we understand about individual psychology. Decisions are unconscious, the linguistic brain serves to rationalize them.

I get that endless war v Taliban hasn’t been successful so maybe peace treaty with Taliban if it can be reached will be better, but I still worry about Afghan women and others subject to fundamentalist Taliban who are still attacking weddings and such

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/09/taliban-attacks-afghan-city-talks-wrap-190901051603411.html

The original casus belli for war in Afghanistan was to eliminate a safe haven for al Qaida. In the context of that war, liberating the women of Afghanistan was a peripheral strategy at most, aimed more at creating positive support among the US and NATO allies than anything else. In many ways, it strengthened the Taliban resistance to the government we helped to install and prop up. Abandoning the war was always going to mean abandoning the women of Afghanistan to their fate, because it was never about them. They were pawns. Which is sad, but war is a nearly useless instrument to create a more liberal society.

war created a more liberal society after WW II in Germany and Japan and Italy; and sorta in South Korea after Korean war there, but yeah not too much success otherwise.

Meanwhile in Iraq and Syria:

Five months after American-backed forces ousted the Islamic State from its last shard of territory in Syria, the terrorist group is gathering new strength, conducting guerrilla attacks across Iraq and Syria, retooling its financial networks and targeting new recruits at an allied-run tent camp, American and Iraqi military and intelligence officers said.

Though President Trump hailed a total defeat of the Islamic State this year, defense officials in the region see things differently, acknowledging that what remains of the terrorist group is here to stay...

....the terrorist group has still mobilized as many as 18,000 remaining fighters in Iraq and Syria. These sleeper cells and strike teams have carried out sniper attacks, ambushes, kidnappings and assassinations against security forces and community leaders...

... ISIS uses extortion to finance clandestine operations: Farmers in northern Iraq who refuse to pay have had their crops burned to the ground.

Over the past several months, ISIS has made inroads into a sprawling tent camp in northeast Syria, and there is no ready plan to deal with the 70,000 people there, including thousands of family members of ISIS fighters. American intelligence officials say the Al Hol camp, managed by Syrian Kurdish allies with little aid or security, is evolving into a hotbed of ISIS ideology and a huge breeding ground for future terrorists. The American-backed Syrian Kurdish force also holds more than 10,000 ISIS fighters, including 2,000 foreigners, in separate makeshift prisons....Defense officials in the region say the Islamic State is now entrenched in mostly rural territory, fighting in small elements of roughly a dozen fighters and taking advantage of the porous border between Iraq and Syria, along with the informal border between Iraqi Kurdistan and the rest of the country, where security forces are spread thin and responsibilities for public safety are sometimes disputed....

A particularly brutal episode of the kind not seen since the Islamic State was in control of territory in northern Iraq occurred in early August when armed men claiming ISIS allegiance held a public beheading of a policeman in a rural village south of the city of Samarra in Salahuddin Province, about two hours north of Baghdad.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/19/us/politics/isis-iraq-syria.html

x-post-- I mean war helped create , along with all the subsequent peace-related stuff establishing rule of law again, helping the economy etc.

Eh, it took a while in Korea ;) Like, forty years or so.

Nobody really condemns the invasion of Afghanistan, because sheltering Osama bin Laden while he planned 9/11 was a really really really bad idea, but the way that war just got... ignored... until it just became the usual stalemate / quagmire, is one of those just stupid things the US has done. No, war is bad for bringing democracy, but imagine all the money wasted on the Iraq war had been spent on a Marshall plan for Afghanistan.

It didn't get ignored. Hundreds of billions spent, and thousands of lives (incl 43 Danes) lost. Tens of billions on development, perhaps more per capita than any other spot on the planet (incl during the Marshall Plan), though overwhelmingly spent on Western contractors rather than indigenous engineers/labor.

The problem seems to be that the 1) cultural issues of the "graveyard of empires" will take many decades to resolve; 2) from 2001, the US and NATO backed warlords and some of the most corrupt in Afghan society; 3) progress won't happen so long as Pakistan's ISI has more interest leveraging fundamentalism to play geopolitical games than supporting peace; and 4) Western democracies now lack the ideological conviction that made the endless sacrifices of colonialism possible (for better or worse).

Neither military force or money would be sufficient for these problems. Cultivating non-corrupt indigenous pro-development strongmen, getting Pakistan and other regional powers to sign on, and committing to the project for 40+ years (and accepting a constant dribble of losses) were prerequisites. Western democracies just haven't been very good at "nation building" since the early 20th century, and Afghanistan lacked the sort of political center of gravity that nationalist strongmen like Chiang Ching-kuo (Taiwan), Park Chung-hee (S Korea), or Lee Kuan Yew (Singapore) provided.

Western democracies just haven't been very good at "nation building" since the early 20th century

This 'since' in this sentence might turn it into the wrongest historical statement of all time

My wife has been working in Afghanistan specifically to empower the women over there - made some good friends - so I’m really hoping we don’t walk away without some path forward for them

Lots of newly independent nations in the 50s and 60s only could become "nations" thanks to transport/communications infrastructure and governmental frameworks left by colonial powers. Not saying colonialism was moral or justified, just that the colonial inheritance made states larger than small provinces governable. The historical anomaly becomes just how ineffectual externally driven state building exercises have been in the post-colonial era.

the colonial inheritance made states larger than small provinces governable.

If, by "governable" you indicate only that a central government can largely extend its effective monopoly of force within its own borders, then I agree. But almost every sizeable ex-colonial "nation" has no organically developed national identity and has many large groups of "citizens" who are disaffected, disenfranchised and held down though brutal military and police power. Such "governance" is really not much different from or better than the Taliban.

it feels like you're overlooking the way the national boundaries were deliberately structured to cross/disrupt tribal boundaries and enhance existing divisions. kind of made the whole exercise a moot point.

granted, that was more pronounced in Africa, but this is the MENA thread

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/03/middleeast/yemen-war-crimes-un-panel-intl/index.html

UN panel says UK, France, US & Iran may be complicit in war crimes in Yemen

every sizeable ex-colonial "nation" has no organically developed national identity and has many large groups of "citizens" who are disaffected, disenfranchised and held down

Pretty much the experience of Western Europe, for 2 to 6 centuries prior to national unification. We shouldn't be surprised if humans in the developing world behave much like humans in developing Europe. Nations require a lot of suppression of competing feudal and tribal interests.

"We're talking about sand and death"-- Middle East, North Africa (MENA) and other nearby Political Hotspots 2020

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