The Colombia/Ecuador/Venezuela Mess or Let's Place Bets on How Long Before the U.S. Backs a Colombian War With Venezuela

Fewer than 100,000 civilian casualties, then?

John Bolton determined to be Dumb Kissinger to the Dumb Nixon, huh?

Fewer than 100,000 civilian casualties, then?

sad Brazil / ILX film squad convergence

Bolsonaro’s government just declared that Kleber Mendonça Filho has 30 days to return R$2.2 million of financing from NEIGHBORING SOUNDS. That’s over $550,000 for a film that was released in 2012. https://t.co/H2D0Eh6gtm

— Violet Lucca (@unbuttonmyeyes) May 3, 2019

https://mariannewrites.home.blog/2019/05/11/fellow-progressives-stop-hurting-venezuelans/

^that author is fully conversant with the crimes of Maduro, but seems not to fully examine the consequences of Guaido embracing Trump & Bolton's path for Venezuela as the price of US support. The lukewarm support for Guaido she hears voiced by US progressives is due to their long experience with neo-cons and the consequences of neo-con policies. She clearly sees the frying pan Venezualans are in, but doesn't see the fire that they shall be jumping into if Guaido becomes a dependent US client.

Assuming that a latin american does not know the long history of US intervention in Latin America is exactly what she is criticising.

Is she really arguing Venezuela would be better off turning into Guatemala?

Yeah the leader of the Popular Will, a party that has been recognized within the sphere of the Socialist International, his only goal is to turn the nation into a humanitarian crisis of unseen proportions. And horrible fascists states like Sweden (gasp!) and Iceland (oh no!) and Costa Rica (yikes!) are fully behind the notion that only a destroyed and plundered Venezuela is what is best for Venezuelans, including this writer who's trauma of having to leave her nation because of tyrant is really starting point of misunderstanding the situation to a degree only white dudes from beautiful campus can truly understand.

his only goal is to turn the nation into a humanitarian crisis of unseen proportions.

If it comes to a US military intervention in aid of Guaido, which is very certainly on Bolton's Christmas list whether or not this is Guaido's present policy or intention, it very well could become a humanitarian crisis even more destructive and deadly than the humanitarian crisis already caused by Maduro's misgovernment. If the US government were not currently in the hands of men willing to inflict incalculable suffering on "enemy" nations, I would feel far more secure in the future course of US involvement as likely to bring benefit to the Venezuelan people. Trump & Bolton are capable of doing worse than Nixon & Kissinger, or Bush & Cheney.

Yes, there is a long list of shit that could make the current crisis much worse. I think anyone is intelligent enough to understand that there can be ways in which Guaido becomes an interim president that presides over fair elections without having a civil war going on. I just think that negating whatever the Venezuelans diaspora is expressing is not going to help the situation, I think sanitizing Maduro (which is not something I have seen much here but I have seen elsewhere) is really not going to help. Claiming any support of Guaido is ideologically is neo-con is also not going to help. And also it is stupid. Some people need to stop with this stupid left-right dichotomy. Proof is that Trump does it.

Someone from Venezuela:

Instead of supporting Guaidó’s work, progressives in North America have chosen to given vague and evasive statements (e.g. Bernie Sanders or Jagmeet Singh), or even to go as far as to voice their support of Maduro’s dictatorship (e.g. Ilhan Omar), often ignoring the pleas of their own Venezuelan constituents. They justify this by imposing North American political narratives on an incredibly unique and complex situation.

Aimless immediately:

that author is fully conversant with the crimes of Maduro, but seems not to fully examine the consequences of Guaido embracing Trump & Bolton's path for Venezuela as the price of US support. The lukewarm support for Guaido she hears voiced by US progressives is due to their long experience with neo-cons and the consequences of neo-con policies. She clearly sees the frying pan Venezualans are in, but doesn't see the fire that they shall be jumping into if Guaido becomes a dependent US client.

"But since interim president Juan Guaidó started his efforts to restore democracy in Venezuela"

A bowl of wrong from this girl.

"I think anyone is intelligent enough to understand that there can be ways in which Guaido becomes an interim president that presides over fair elections without having a civil war going on."

You overestimate Guaido's intelligence.

You are embarassing.

Got quite hurt, then I turned off the kilfile for a second. VHS OTM.

Haha @ "got quite hurt"

often ignoring the pleas of their own Venezuelan constituents

No one individual has custody of the narrative about what the author admits is "an incredibly unique and complex situation". To confirm this, all one has to do is to compare the widely divergent narratives of US citizens regarding immigration. If the USA chooses an aggressive policy in regard to Venezuela, as guided by Bolton and Trump, I highly doubt that it will be informed by the Venezuelan constituents the author aligns with and what she will get instead is Bolton & gang justifying their actions "by imposing North American political narrative on an incredibly unique and complex situation".

iow, she doesn't see US policy will be trapped in its North American political narrative, regardless of her ardent desires for Venezuelans to be in charge of Venezuela's fate. Intervention comes in a lot of flavors, but I stand by my observation that she is imagining her preferred outcome will prevail, not arguing persuasively how there is a probable path to that outcome.

Once again this purely the POV of a western witness.

With everything that has been laid down, if you can't understand how there is a path for the left and centre-left to help Guaido make fair elections happen without resorting to apocalyptic scenarios involving Abrams/Bolton/Trump then I suggest you take a step back from your personal preferences and biases. I hate Trump too. I will oppose any military intervention by the US and I have no trust Bolton and Abrams will find the right solution for Venezuela. I still support Guaido and fair elections and those things are not mutually exclusive. Maybe it is unfortunate that the opposition, the diaspora, reasonable governments across the world and Trump have chosen the same opposition leader as the hope for Venezuelan democracy, but I refuse to play the idiotic left vs right zero sum game. Or to show my woke understanding of the US military history and silence the voices of Venezuelans.

Once again this purely the POV of a western witness.

Yes. How true.

I still support Guaido and fair elections and those things are not mutually exclusive.

As I recall, the author of the piece did not say that the majority of US progressives were against Guaido or fair elections, mostly because this would not be true. Her complaint was about 'lukewarmness' from these sources.

I refuse to play the idiotic left vs right zero sum game.

Most people are already there with you, if you'd take the time to notice.

but I refuse to play the idiotic left vs right zero sum game

You are brave and I, for one, salute you

Juan Guaidó travels around with “a personal astrologer.” pic.twitter.com/FRnkKlZDO6

— Tim Gill (@timgill924) June 4, 2019

tfw u explain to your advisor why you're dropping a chapter from your dissertation pic.twitter.com/HAucsDeOJz

— Peter Labuza (@labuzamovies) June 20, 2019

Fred and Van Horn Street RIP

He's got a bigger regime change to worry about now.

Obviously I’m very happy.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/04/world/americas/venezuela-police-abuses.html

One for the imperialists on the board:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/21/venezuelan-leader-nicolas-maduro-confirms-months-of-secret-us-talks

Cool scenes:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/13/juan-guaido-faces-questions-over-links-to-organised-groups

Meanwhile in Bolivia :-(

Jon has good sources in Bolivia; one close to Morales says he was forced to resign and this should be considered a coup https://t.co/WBqYxaxOEA

— Vincent Bevins (@Vinncent) November 10, 2019

This is super depressing.

Evo Morales’ government has transformed Bolivia, giving dignity to millions of workers, peasants and indigenous people.

The imperialist coup against him must be condemned. Full solidarity with the Bolivian people in their struggle for sovereignty, justice and democracy.

— Momentum (@PeoplesMomentum) November 10, 2019

'My sin was being indigenous, leftist and anti-imperialist' - Evo #Morales on his resignation pic.twitter.com/48YWDTR6LM

— Ruptly (@Ruptly) November 11, 2019

this was Evo's predecessor. Spanish speakers will notice that he cannot even speak Spanish properly. That's because he had spent all his life in the US before becoming President of Bolivia. https://t.co/kCcKdFwFWp

— Flavia Dzodan (@redlightvoices) November 11, 2019

This quote from an Al Jazeera article expresses my sense of what's happened.

Cochabamba feminist activist Maria Fernandez told Al Jazeera: "Evo's last two terms in office were marked by corruption, arrogance and a disregard for the people who put him into power. But I'm not celebrating his resignation because I'm afraid that this is a takeover by religious extremists who are anti-women and racist."

Yes there have been (like in Venezuela) criticisms from the left..

My father was born and raised in La Paz, and I still have family there---many of whom have moved to Santa Cruz, so you can understand what their perspective on this would be. But the religious aspect of Luis Fernando Camacho's rise is a new aspect of Bolivian politics.

And just on that

Fascists burning the wiphala and declaring that "Bolivia belongs to Christ" is meant as a threat of violence to Natives across South America.

Yes, it hits especially hard for Aymaras and Quechuas.

Yes, I'm feeling pretty angry and f**ked up.

Yes, we will survive this too. ✊🏾🌈

— Daniel Delgado (@DDelgadoVive) November 11, 2019

Bolivia's politics have been built on racism since the colonial era (despite many of us being mestizo). It has shaped my life and the life of every Boliviano I've known. The sexism and homophobia now being highlighted by "El Macho" is newly explicit, though obviously it has been present since forever like everywhere else. Women have long been active participants in Evo's MAS movement, so the new amplification of racism and sexism is not unexpected.

Neither are Camacho's links to the gas industry. Bolivia under Evo was a narcostate (and the good and bad of that can be talked about, I say that merely as description, not judgment), but under the right it will be a gas state. For the Spanish it was a silver state. For the Chinese or the Germans it would be a lithium state. At least the coca industry is indigenous. Otherwise Bolivia is just another place for the capitalists to loot, as it's been since my ancestors went there to do just that.

https://www.nodal.am/2019/11/quien-es-luis-fernando-camacho-el-hombre-que-intenta-desestabilizar-bolivia/

https://www.truthdig.com/articles/your-complete-guide-to-the-n-y-times-support-of-u-s-backed-coups-in-latin-america/

I don't know, term limits are super important.

Good/interesting thread on some of the complexities at work (and the difficulty of sorting social media takes)

People need to trouble their liberal (mis)understanding and (mis)use of identity. Here's an example:

Tomasa Yarhui is an indigenous Quechua political "voice" from Bolivia. She's also a center-right Christian Democrat, here mourning the death of a violent coup-supporting cop. https://t.co/har2g9pVOk

— #HandsOffBolivia (@OLAASM) November 12, 2019

I’m mostly sympathetic to Morales, I hope his party can thrive, but really I don’t think anyone should be the head of government for more than 14 years

What was the response of pro-Morales voices re: him ignoring the results of the 2016 referendum?

Maduro retweets post mocking the crudeness of Bolivian interim president-designate Áñez's new video calling for the Bolivian army to intervene, with the tweet remarking they never would think they would ever see a "more improvised and crap production than those of Juan Guaidó". pic.twitter.com/5QKUQvt3zX

— Séamus Malekafzali (@Seamus_Malek) November 12, 2019

Does anyone know what was wrong with Alvaro Garcia Linera since he never got to run?

I generally trust the OAS but reports that the head of electoral commission turned herself to the police to report irregularities is much more damning.

A far-right supporter of failed Venezuelan coup leader Juan Guaido got punched in the face by an Afro-Brazilian today when he tried to invade and occupy the Venezuelan embassy in Brazil with other Guaido supporters. pic.twitter.com/rMzOkswJyb

— redfish (@redfishstream) November 13, 2019

I love this pic

One thing I notice over and over again is how "anti-government protestors" in e.g. Bolivia and Venezuela read as "normal folks" to American eyes, when in reality their North Face and Nike reflects extraordinary local wealth.

anti-Morales protestors:
https://storage.googleapis.com/afs-prod/media/0ea3e96ac5754cbfab60d95f8c46e359/1000.jpeg

pro-morales protestor:
https://i.cbc.ca/1.5358740.1573687837!/cpImage/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/original_780/bolivia-protests.jpg

I remember Venezuelan protests a few years back where every protestor looked like they had just dropped a thousand bucks on camping gear at L.L. Bean.