Is the West Experiencing a Left-Wing Drift? (the international left politics activism, news, and strategy thread)

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yes just impressions. any dem will rely on some level of push from the public but that alone won't be sufficient (and the kinds of numbers that would be required for it to be sufficient -- i just don't see millions & millions of Americans marching especially *after* the Dems win and a lot of that expectation is satiated - but there will likely be loads of right-wingers protesting and fired up over the loss). they'll need to be able to negotiate with Senator Bugs Meany, and maybe having a legitimate threat of ending the filibuster will help too. it will def help within the party to not have alienated key wings (like the moderates + neoliberals) that are losing influence but aren't going to disappear. i know they fear and hate warren too but she has a level of comity and her policy proposals will immediately have an impression of validity and intelligence. the media wonks will love her and her proposals which will help. i can't help but feel like an ideal situation for bernie would be recruiting warren and actively promoting legislation as the Warren Plan, to try and capture some of that enthusiasm from major party players.

Mordy, Friday, 26 April 2019 16:14 (four years ago) link

mordy super otm. you need your caucus to be in line to get legislation through congress. i can't see the nominally-independent sanders corralling waffling establishment dem senators as well as warren could.

be the 2 chainz you want 2 see in the world (m bison), Friday, 26 April 2019 16:20 (four years ago) link

nb i think warren would have a tougher route to actually winning the election and absolutely to winning the nomination which seems like a longshot at the moment. whether that's because of american misogyny or her own flaws or whatever i can't speculate but obv who you support has something to do w/ whether they could win not just how they'd do once they did but atm since it's so early in the race by the time PA votes in the primaries a lot about the field could change, i'm just talking about who i think would be the best president. if it's just about winning back the WH bernie might be the best option but in terms of long term success of the left i don't know if disappointment over the accomplishments of the most left-wing President in US history is going to be good for it. but tbph i have no idea it could very well be that even in a worst case bernie presidency scenario the left is so fired up about their successes that it galvanizes new movements, new participants, the next president is an all star leftist policy machine idk.

Mordy, Friday, 26 April 2019 16:24 (four years ago) link

it could very well be that even in a worst case bernie presidency scenario the left is so fired up about their successes that it galvanizes new movements, new participants

I think this is what a lot of Bernie voters are banking on, and certainly what I would hope for - galvanizing enough traditional nonvoters and the usually-disillusioned to help build a left movement with a spine. (and no, I don't think Bernie is the only person who could do this, he just happens to be the best-positioned at this time.) tbh without that movement in place I would need to be convinced that lasting, meaningful change is even possible given the immense legislative and systemic hurdles in place.

re the nuts and bolts stuff, I would only add that Bernie actually has a history of working with sympathetic Republicans and moderate Dems on particular issues

Simon H., Friday, 26 April 2019 16:29 (four years ago) link

re: Corbyn, AFAICT he's actually been pretty successful at holding his party together given the various strains of chaos at work. Labour have been ahead in the polls for weeks.

Simon H., Friday, 26 April 2019 16:33 (four years ago) link

idk if yall are big investors but i've got a v exciting opportunity you'd be a fool not to snap up today: it's called the Meaningful Redistribution, But Moderates And Neoliberals And Media Wonks Support It Because Of Its Convincing Tone Of Voice Bridge

leads right onto the The Democratic Party Isn't Divided By Anything "Transactional Skills" Couldn't Fix Causeway (via the Obama Tunnel)

i love warren and would be happy to see her in the white house-- i'd also prob prefer bernie as her running mate to her as his-- but the "political revolution" stuff bernie is predictably maligned as a che-shirt stoner for seems better-positioned to prepare the american people for the long, relentless slog they have ahead of them than warren's Smart Ideas approach, which seems to have convinced you that standing down in relief after electing her will somehow be less of a disaster than doing it w bernie. if you "don't see millions & millions of americans marching" then you don't see a future imo, simple as that.

difficult listening hour, Friday, 26 April 2019 16:44 (four years ago) link

re: Lab's recebt poll surge is partly to do with how badly May has managed to fuck up Brexit; the extension till Autumn by the EU has been a disaster for her. Corbyn has really let her get on with it and given her enough rope. His tactic of not actually going for any option (2nd ref etc.) has worked -- because that would've meant needless infighting within Labour.

Mordy totally underplays the role that a critical mass of protestors will need to play over the next decade. Both Labour and Democrats will need a progressive leadership + that critical mass to put pressure on a centrist layer that occupies both parties. Some of that has layer is under threat by newly elected progressives if you look at Omar/AOC (and really good crop of young Labour left-wing MPs in the UK) but a sizeable gap remains if progressive, paradigm-shifting legislation is to be passed through.

Warren -- while her platform is terrific and she is outdoing Bernie atm -- sounds like she would struggle to marshall the people and would fail to get legislation through if its just left to machine politics. I can see her proposals being watered down significantly. Besides, I get the impression Bernie can actually listen and be talked out of some of his worse positions by the progressive groups and people he gathers around him. That isn't so true on the foreign policy stuff, where he appears weak.

I've no doubt that Bernie or Corbyn would fail at quite a few things but stopping the tide is a significant step. xp

xyzzzz__, Friday, 26 April 2019 16:48 (four years ago) link

The only issue I think rises to the level of potentially uncorrectable and existential enough a threat that it might require (and even impel by the nature of its severity) complete system takedown is one Bernie isn’t even that good on and we might be better off with like Inslee. I’m not pessimistic enough to believe the wealth distribution stuff can not be done through the current system bc it has been done in the past more than once and in many other similar systems to great effect.

Mordy, Friday, 26 April 2019 16:50 (four years ago) link

i agree with Mordy in that, impressionistically, i buy warren getting stuff passed more than bernie. but that's not quite the same as his entire plan amounting to mass pressure on legislators, any more than anybody else who runs with ideas that aren't the current status quo. i also think that in a universe where bernie becomes president, congress and the conversation probably look differently than they do now. that's a hypothetical primary season and general election that swaps out a few more AOCs for conservative dems and flips some more seats from R to D. and the media conversation would be about an insurgent outsider that animated a previously unchanneled hunger, maybe that gets vaguely described as a hunger "for change" or "against the establishment" but everyone watching will have seen bernie yelling about the 1% and know what the mandate was for. and at least some smart politicians will figure their best bet will be to seem like they're on board and accomplishing something especially once their organized constituents are demanding them to declare where they stand on the BernieCare bill. (others will be positioning themselves as "cooler heads" wanting to make sure "we get the details right" or whatever.)

and i'm all in for the galvanizing new movements and new participants. that was the point of his 2016 run and it's already paid off. actually that campaign should be exhibit A against the idea that he can't head a successful organization or hire the right people. he made some missteps and could have done a lot of things much better (most obviously incorporating a critique of structural racism, the main way in which way warren has rocketed past him imho). but he basically accomplished everything i thought he set out to do and the Left-Wing Drift is way better off for it.

somehow it does feel as if bernie would be shooting for the New Deal, and the compromise version would be the post-New-Deal conservative coalition era from Truman to LBJ. warren feels like she's shooting for that latter era and the compromise version would be something less again. but i'm not actually versed enough in their current platforms to say whether that's true, whether it reflects rhetoric and energy more than policy (bernie is very well dialed into a sense that this is an emergency, that we've been ripped off and it's bullshit and it needs to change now), and/or whether that rhetoric-and-energy reflects sexist constraints on candidate posture (could warren be as fiery without being shut down as a ~crazy woman~) or my own internalized sexism in how i view/hear them. to be clear, at present (as of the student debt proposal and the televised town hall) i am a warren voter. i just think bernie gets a bad rap.

|Restore| |Restart| |Quit| (Doctor Casino), Friday, 26 April 2019 16:52 (four years ago) link

Mordy, don't keep us in suspense - what exactly is this critical mystery issue? (I'm assuming it's climate change and that it just fell out of the post partway through...)

|Restore| |Restart| |Quit| (Doctor Casino), Friday, 26 April 2019 16:53 (four years ago) link

i'd also prob prefer bernie as her running mate to her as his

sorry, maintaining a distinction mordy makes upthread-- i meant VP here, not running mate.

difficult listening hour, Friday, 26 April 2019 16:53 (four years ago) link

xp yes sorry thought that was obv

Mordy, Friday, 26 April 2019 16:54 (four years ago) link

this is ilx, people recognize a lot of existential threats. could have been about DMB fans for example.

|Restore| |Restart| |Quit| (Doctor Casino), Friday, 26 April 2019 16:58 (four years ago) link

look I don't like Buttigieg either but there's no need for hyperbole

Simon H., Friday, 26 April 2019 17:00 (four years ago) link

lol

|Restore| |Restart| |Quit| (Doctor Casino), Friday, 26 April 2019 17:11 (four years ago) link

re: Corbyn, AFAICT he's actually been pretty successful at holding his party together given the various strains of chaos at work...
― Simon H., Friday, 26 April 2019 16:33 (fifty-two minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yes and no - the party did splinter of course, though it's not been as big an issue as people maybe feared because the splitters are so politically inept not many other backbenchers have followed. there are still however massive internal fractures, the most visible manifestation of which are the recent manoeuvres by deputy leader tom watson. this has led to some disquiet in the membership with various CLPs passing motions of no confidence in TW. if a corbyn government is elected, it would face massive pressure from all sides from UK civic society... including from its own internal coalition of MPs and the detractors within the PLP. this is why there's a vocal strain of the membership who want the leadership to face down these people, democratise the party, and refresh the PLP

... and the crowd said DESELECT THEM (||||||||), Friday, 26 April 2019 17:36 (four years ago) link

The mechanics of British parliamentary politics are so different from US duopolistic politics I can never come to grips with them, whereas foreigners living under parliamentary systems, like Fred, seem effortlessly to grasp all the intricacies of US politics firmly by the pinkie finger.

A is for (Aimless), Friday, 26 April 2019 18:08 (four years ago) link

Thanks Mordy, and others, I somehow missed this thread had new answers since I asked the question(s). Lot to take in here!

I can imagine being shifted from Bernie to Warren, but its very difficult to imagine being shifted to any of the others

anvil, Friday, 26 April 2019 20:52 (four years ago) link

same

Simon H., Friday, 26 April 2019 21:05 (four years ago) link

Fred seem effortlessly to grasp all the intricacies of US politics firmly by the pinkie finger.

New board description?

Frederik B, Saturday, 27 April 2019 09:24 (four years ago) link

The mechanics of British parliamentary politics are so different from US duopolistic politics I can never come to grips with them

Well its not about the intricacies of failing systems of governance, more that they fail in the first place, not how. Groups of people disagreeing, so many whose voices aren't heard, and so much failure to grapple with the issues...these are things that resonate on both sides of the pond.

Concentrating on mechanics is for nerds, basically.

xyzzzz__, Saturday, 27 April 2019 11:17 (four years ago) link

impressionistically, i buy warren getting stuff passed more than bernie.

I don’t really get this line of thinking - chances of a Dem Senate are extremely slim, and a Republican Senate will try to block everything either one proposes. It seems to me like the main question is who can rally public support and anger during the inevitable prolonged shutdowns and stonewalling of their agenda. My impression right now is that Bernie would me more successful in that arena.

JoeStork, Saturday, 27 April 2019 19:57 (four years ago) link

are they that slim though? i thought the CW was that 2020 was a better senate map for dems than 2018, and in a world where bernie wins that probably means high dem turnout. not saying it's something to bank on, but i do think it's possible that if someone beats trump in 2020 they will be able to pass legislation, and that the big challenge will be making sure all dems vote for that legislation (could imagine certain dem senators already salivating at the prospect of being their party's susan collins).

|Restore| |Restart| |Quit| (Doctor Casino), Saturday, 27 April 2019 20:55 (four years ago) link

https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/

shows 3 tossups (AL, CO, AZ), 5 lean dem (MI, NM, MN, VA, NH), 3 lean rep (NC, GA, and ME). dems need to keep their leans, win the 3 tossups, and one lean rep. or if they lose jones' AL seat, they'll need two lean rep seats. it'll be a challenge but i think if they can amass a turnout similar to 2018 they could grab CO, AZ, NC, and ME.

be the 2 chainz you want 2 see in the world (m bison), Saturday, 27 April 2019 21:06 (four years ago) link

GA sen becomes competitive to me only if abrams runs. likewise tx if joaquin castro runs.

be the 2 chainz you want 2 see in the world (m bison), Saturday, 27 April 2019 21:07 (four years ago) link

two weeks pass...

Means TV with a cute bit featuring some Pod Damn Venezuela podcasters...

All the U.S. media coverage of Venezuela: pic.twitter.com/LKdCARrUOg

— MEANS TV (@means_tv) May 15, 2019


U.S. media coverage of Venezuela: 2/2

w/ @feraljokes @melisshious @andersleehere pic.twitter.com/dBxbh3qjPu

— MEANS TV (@means_tv) May 15, 2019

Glower, Disruption & Pies (kingfish), Wednesday, 15 May 2019 14:15 (four years ago) link

three weeks pass...

The left has won the elections in Denmark, w/ Labour being the biggest party and enough left seats to form a coalition, aiui. But I'm hearing Labour won because of a tougher anti-immigration stance? Care to elaborate for us, Fred B?

Uptown VONC (Le Bateau Ivre), Thursday, 6 June 2019 09:51 (four years ago) link

Yeah, it's a massive victory for the left of centre. The far right collapsed, DPP, the populist anti-immigration 'economic anxiety' type party suffered what seems to me to be the biggest collapse for any party in a 100 years, lost 12,4% and went from 21,1% to 8,7%. The Libertarian party collapsed as well, from 7,5% to 2,3%. It's true that 'Labour' (the Social Democrats) has moved to the right on immigration, and the leader underlined that fact a lot in her victory speech, but the result is that they've stayed steady, and every other left wing party has had a huge increase. Except for the far left, the party I vote for :( So all in all, a good evening, and the voters has pretty conclusively rejected the alliance of small government libertarianism and harsh immigration policy, which has basically dominated the country for twenty years at this point. in the end, it was unstable, the racists wanted bigger government, not smaller, just only for whites, so it can't work anymore. We'll see what happens, I don't expect the country to become a multiculturalist utopia, it's too far gone for that (a party of pretty straight up nazis/alt-right 4chan weirdoes very nearly made it into parliament) but I do think the consensus has been shattered. We'll see.

Frederik B, Thursday, 6 June 2019 09:59 (four years ago) link

Thanks for that! This is all good news, esp the DPP's disintegration. With the far right on the rise in Sweden I thought perhaps it might stay that way in Denmark too, but I'm glad I made the wrong assumption. I read a profile about Mattias Tesfaye here, his story seems to have caught the media's attention. Frederiksen will be your youngest ever PM no?

Uptown VONC (Le Bateau Ivre), Thursday, 6 June 2019 11:59 (four years ago) link

She's probably the youngest at 41, yeah. But not by a lot. I'm not sure what happened to Tesfaye?

Frederik B, Thursday, 6 June 2019 12:57 (four years ago) link

They profiled him as a "popular" politician under both Danes-by-birth and immigrants because of his half-Ethiopian background. He's in the running for integration minister? It was a bit of a "succesful immigrant" story (even though he's from Arhus iirc).

Uptown VONC (Le Bateau Ivre), Thursday, 6 June 2019 13:04 (four years ago) link

before we rushing to push our narratives on the Danish election results, it's important to remember the impact of local factors in Sunderland

— James (@Gilofthepeople) June 5, 2019

xyzzzz__, Thursday, 6 June 2019 13:18 (four years ago) link

Oh, okay, I didn't know that, I honestly thought he was still a Socialist. Mep. Too many young socialists move to the right.

Frederik B, Thursday, 6 June 2019 13:53 (four years ago) link

America's appetite for "big government" is at a 68-year-high. But the electorate's liberal mood may prove less durable and consequential than the leftward shift in elite economic opinion, after a decade of humiliations for center/right orthodoxy. https://t.co/1Z9phzvybk

— Eric Levitz (@EricLevitz) June 8, 2019

π” π”žπ”’π”¨ (caek), Saturday, 8 June 2019 19:10 (four years ago) link

The elites who matter most got massively wealthy during those "decades of humiliation" and those elites are still gung-ho for the orthodoxy that further enriches and empowers them. I predict that all those endowments the rich made to subsidize conservative economists, whether in universities or 'think tanks', will continue to serve their purpose by ensuring a steady supply of center/right orthodoxy, promulgated by well-fed economists who know enough not to bite the hand that feeds them. Eric Levitz sounds like a Sunday NYT feature writer looking for a crazy new "trend" he can be the first to discover.

A is for (Aimless), Sunday, 9 June 2019 03:41 (four years ago) link

two weeks pass...

Tesfaye just became integration minister. You really have the finger on the pulse LBI.

Frederik B, Thursday, 27 June 2019 07:43 (four years ago) link

two weeks pass...

Not the right thread for this but Ive been watching a few prison channel youtubes this year (after prison show, big herc, lockdown 23and1), and a few recurring themes stood out

1) The relatively high levels of NON-partisan support for Trump. At this point in the cycle we're all "well people have made their minds up now, anyone still supporting him is unreachable, how can they be ok with whats happening", but nearly all the people here support Trump in an almost apolitical way. I could easily imagine these people saying exactly the same thing about Obama (or Bernie!), a kind of accepting, "well he's the boss, it can't be easy, I don't really know to be real with you".

I've always believed its better to go on the offensive with positives/policies than on the negatives with attacks on Trump (or anyone else), but really felt the futility of attacking Trump, "why you got to attack the man, he's just trying to do his job" instead of selling them something different

2) A general feeling of "they don't want us men to be men anymore". Ill-defined, as these things tend to be, and I don't know how much of this is a result of the horrors of the prison experience and what was needed to be able to come out the other side of it in some reasonable mental condition.

These are people invested in helping others, no obvious traits of conservatism or brain-worms. But I still found it easier to imagine them voting Republican rather than Democrat, and easier still (much easier!) to imagine them not voting at all

anvil, Friday, 12 July 2019 07:10 (four years ago) link

three weeks pass...

In Atlanta for the DSA Convention. Helluva time.

Glower, Disruption & Pies (kingfish), Friday, 2 August 2019 17:55 (four years ago) link

try not to elect any police union people to the steering committee this time!

jokes, that sounds fun, have some good praxis

bookmarkflaglink (jim in vancouver), Friday, 2 August 2019 17:59 (four years ago) link

The window on policy has shifted to the point that the guy running on *automatically enrolling every uninsured person in a government plan" is the let 'em die candidate https://t.co/9NAYPjDp1m

— Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) August 2, 2019

π” π”žπ”’π”¨ (caek), Friday, 2 August 2019 18:45 (four years ago) link

nine months pass...

I liked this, anice essay on organizing and the very different yet heavily personalized ways people get radicalized: https://firewithfire.blog/2020/05/10/organizing-is-not-about-getting-people-to-agree-with-radical-ideas/

Glower, Disruption & Pies (kingfish), Wednesday, 13 May 2020 09:25 (three years ago) link

three weeks pass...

the washingtonpost.com liveblog

https://i.imgur.com/u0AWfy8.png

π” π”žπ”’π”¨ (caek), Friday, 5 June 2020 02:56 (three years ago) link

woah

k*r*n koltrane (Simon H.), Friday, 5 June 2020 05:04 (three years ago) link

Who's been out protesting? How was yr experience?

k*r*n koltrane (Simon H.), Friday, 5 June 2020 05:15 (three years ago) link

i'm going to the American Embassy in London this Sunday

Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Friday, 5 June 2020 08:15 (three years ago) link

2014:
43% of Americans said that the killings in Ferguson and NYC were "signs of a broader problem" and 51% said they were "isolated incidents" in a Post-ABC poll

Today:
74% say George Floyd's killing was a sign of a broader problem in a ABC-Ipsos pollhttps://t.co/zsoaNVqCrG

— Emily Guskin (@EmGusk) June 5, 2020

π” π”žπ”’π”¨ (caek), Friday, 5 June 2020 22:04 (three years ago) link

Black Lives Matter. pic.twitter.com/JpXUFlxH2J

— Mitt Romney (@MittRomney) June 7, 2020

π” π”žπ”’π”¨ (caek), Sunday, 7 June 2020 22:43 (three years ago) link

No comment

all cats are beautiful (silby), Sunday, 7 June 2020 22:44 (three years ago) link

I'm once again glad I made this thread

k*r*n koltrane (Simon H.), Sunday, 7 June 2020 22:45 (three years ago) link

difficult listening hour wrote this on thread Democratic (Party) Direction on board I Love Everything on Sep 18, 2017

this country's going so far to the left you're not going to recognize it

sleeve, Sunday, 7 June 2020 22:48 (three years ago) link


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