The uncertainty that hung over the San Antonio Spurs last April is not there this year. Despite losing in the first round for a second consecutive year, the Spurs enter the offseason with a much clearer path.
The Kawhi Leonard cloud is now replaced with a foundation of youth, role players and All-Star-level veterans. The Spurs not only will return 11 players, including the starting five, but also welcome back injured guard Dejounte Murray, who missed the entire 2018-19 season.
On the coaching front, once Gregg Popovich formally commits to return for his 24th season as San Antonio Spurs coach, he's expected to sign a three-year contract that will keep him as the highest-paid coach in the NBA, according to a report by ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.
Now eliminated from the postseason, let's look ahead to the free agency, draft and trade decisions facing the Spurs this offseason.
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The youth movement
The Spurs' No. 24 ranking league-wide in average roster age would indicate that this is an old team in need of an overhaul. But that ranking doesn't capture the fact that San Antonio returns eight players who have a mere 17 years of combined NBA experience. It also doesn't reflect the three additional draft picks on the way in June.
The Spurs' Surprising Youth
PLAYER/PICK AGE* YOS*
First-rounder (own) TBD 0
First-rounder (TOR) TBD 0
Second-rounder (own) TBD 0
Lonnie Walker IV 20 1
Chimezie Metu 22 1
Drew Eubanks 22 1
Dejounte Murray 23 3
Jakob Poeltl 24 3
Derrick White 25 2
Bryn Forbes 26 3
Davis Bertans 26 3
*Entering 2019 season
The concept of developing players is nothing new to the Spurs organization. The principles that were put in place in the late 1990s still exist for Derrick White, Murray, Bryn Forbes and Jakob Poeltl.
Charlotte Hornets head coach James Borrego, a former Spurs assistant, summarized it best in that piece above. "The reason we were able to sustain the success was these young, core pieces were able to develop at the right rate," he said. "And we had good players around them. Put that together with very good development coaches, and it was a wonderful formula to build these young guys. I think it was also a mixture of learning from great veterans, high-IQ basketball players. Put that together with the great development coaching that goes on there, and then the process there is probably the third layer.
"You're not thrust into an area where you're asked to do too much too early. You would ease your way into a role there in San Antonio, whether that's through the G League at times, whether that's through sitting on the bench, in practice. But you're able through all of that to watch great basketball, watch high-IQ basketball players taught by very good coaches. Then, when your time was called, all these guys seemed ready."
What the Spurs have mastered is having in place an infrastructure of young players ready to step into starting roles when veterans age or retire. That formula is why the product the Spurs put on the court is sustainable each season, and that should be no different in 2019-20.
The early free agency of DeMar DeRozan
The first order of business for the Spurs this offseason is to treat DeRozan like a free agent. DeRozan is under contract through the 2020-21 season, but he has a player option that could see him enter free agency a year early.
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While some would say that DeRozan is unlikely to opt out of his $27.7 million contract in 2020-21, San Antonio has to take a proactive approach when it comes to an extension for these reasons:
1. The free-agent class of 2020
Outside of Anthony Davis, who is likely to be moved in the offseason and re-sign with his new team, DeRozan and Draymond Green rank among the best available unrestricted free agents in 2020.
Unlike the 2019 class that is deep with All-Stars, the group of free agents in 2020 consist of players who signed lucrative contracts during the salary-cap spike of 2016 (Evan Turner and Bismack Biyombo) and veterans such as Kyle Lowry, Paul Millsap, Danilo Gallinari and Serge Ibaka who will see significant financial reductions on their new deals.
2. Cap space in 2020
Though the league now projects the cap to come in at $116 million, down $2 million from earlier projections, the summer of 2020 could have close to 20 teams with significant cap space. Even with a DeRozan extension, San Antonio would be one of the teams with close to max room.
It won't be quite the same as 2016, but next summer will see teams having more money to spend on a shallow crop of free agents.
3. The extension option
DeRozan benefits from the veteran extension rules being changed in the 2017 CBA, allowing teams to give a maximum salary increase of 120 percent. Under the 2011 CBA that number was 107.5 percent.
Starting on July 6, San Antonio can amend his contract and eliminate the player option in 2020-21. Doing so would see his cap hit increase from $27.7 million to $33.3 million for that season. How the Spurs structure the remaining years would depend on the comfort level in salary and years for a player who will turn 31 in the first year of an extension.
Here is what a four-year, $149.1 million extension would look like compared to what DeRozan could sign in free agency on a max deal with a new team.
Extension Vs. Max Deal With New Team
YEAR SPURS NEW TEAM AGE
2020-21 $33.3M $40.6M 31
2021-22 $35.9M $42.6M 32
2022-23 $38.6M $44.7M 33
2023-24 $41.3M $46.7M 34
Total $149.1 $174.6
This extension is equal to the max amount a free agent with 7-9 years of service could earn when signing with a team using cap space. This is not to say that the Spurs should offer DeRozan the maximum allowed in an extension, or that the guard would even receive that amount as a free agent if he opts out next summer. But it shows that the Spurs have an opportunity to lock up a strong lead guard in the prime of his career.
One thing to keep an eye on regarding an extension is that San Antonio has taken an aggressive approach not allowing its own veterans to hit free agency. We saw that in October 2017, when LaMarcus Aldridge received a two-year $50 million extension.
Summer cap breakdown
Spurs Projected Cap Sheet
PLAYER 2019-20 SALARY
1. DeMar DeRozan $27,739,975
2. LaMarcus Aldridge $26,000,000
3. Patty Mills $12,428,571
4. Davis Bertans $7,000,000
5. Marco Belinelli $5,846,154
6. Jakob Poeltl $3,754,886
7. Bryn Forbes $2,875,000
8. Lonnie Walker IV $2,760,480
9. Dejounte Murray $2,321,735
10. Derrick White $1,948,080
11. Chimezie Metu $1,416,852
12. Drew Eubanks Two Way
13. First-rounder (own) (free agent hold) $2,794,440
14. First-rounder (via TOR) (free agent hold) $1,947,960
15. Rudy Gay1 (free agent hold) $13,113,360
16. Dante Cunningham2 (free agent hold) $2,984,400
17. Quincy Pondexter2 (free agent hold) $1,618,486
18. Ben Moore3 (free agent hold) $1,443,842
Pau Gasol (waiver) $5,074,856
Total $123.1 million
Salary cap $109.0 million
1. Early Bird
2. Non-Bird
3. Restricted non-Bird
The buyout of Pau Gasol gave the Spurs some minor financial relief, but the team will still be operating right at the cap when July approaches.
Expect San Antonio to have the full $9.2 million midlevel exception available. The Spurs will also have early Bird rights on Rudy Gay to sign him and exceed the salary cap. The Spurs do not have the biannual exception.
Spurs Projected Depth Chart
PG SG SF PF C
D. White B. Forbes D. DeRozan L. Aldridge J. Poeltl
D. Murray P. Mills M. Belinelli D. Bertans D. Eubanks (2)
L. Walker IV C. Metu
2 = Two way
Resources available to build the roster
The draft (two first-round picks)
Cash to buy draft picks
Own free agents: Rudy Gay, Dante Cunningham and Quincy Pondexter
$9.2 midlevel exception
The return of Murray
Restrictions
Aldridge has a 15 percent trade bonus in his contract, currently valued at $7.5 million.
Here is how the bonus would be spread out if Aldridge were traded before or after July 1 (when the 2019-20 league year officially begins):
LaMarcus Aldridge Trade Bonus
SEASON BEFORE JULY 1 AFTER JULY 1
2018-19 $3.3M N/A
2019-20 $3.3M $5.8M
2020-21 $954K $1.7M
Extension candidates
When Murray steps onto the court for training camp in October, the guard will have just turned 23. He will also be one year removed from tearing his right ACL in a game against the Rockets. While the Spurs will proceed with caution, one thing the front office will need to take into consideration is a possible rookie extension.
Murray is eligible for a four-year extension with the Spurs, having until Oct. 21 to reach an agreement. (While the Spurs could offer a five-year extension, it would have to be for the max.) Poeltl also is eligible, though since he and Murray were drafted in 2016 they both will carry low cap holds if they get to 2020 free agency -- $6.9 million for Murray and $11.2 million for Poeltl.
Depending on what happens with DeRozan, San Antonio could have create least $30 million in room in 2020 by holding off on new deals for their young players. And the Spurs haven't been aggressive with rookie extensions in the past. Tony Parker is the lone first-round pick signed to a rookie extension under this front office.
Besides DeRozan, Patty Mills (Aug. 4) and Aldridge (Oct. 1) are eligible for veteran extensions.
The draft assets
The Spurs have proved that there is value outside of the lottery. Of the players on the roster drafted by the Spurs, none was selected in the top 14.
Now with three selections in June, including two in the first round, the player development program in San Antonio will once again have a significant opportunity.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have San Antonio picking in June:
No. 19 (own): Talen Horton-Tucker | G/F | Iowa State
No. 29 (via Toronto): KZ Okpala | F | Stanford
No. 49 (own): Tremont Waters | PG | LSU
The Spurs own all their future first-round picks.
― lag∞n, Wednesday, 1 May 2019 03:44 (four years ago) link