What Do You MENA (Middle East, North Africa and other nearby Political Hotspots) 2019

xp otm, was thinking of the Ben Judah article “Bibi was Right” when I read your comment.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/04/09/symbolism-behind-viral-photo-protesting-woman-sudan/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.6967ea275d28&wpisrc=nl_daily202&wpmm=1

Sudan protests against Bashir

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/.premium-pr-firm-behind-likud-s-hidden-cameras-in-arab-poll-sites-boasts-of-lowering-turnout-1.7108972

Bashir steps down in Sudan after years in power. “Transitional” military council running the country for next 2 years. There have been 4 months of protest. Bashir could face charges in the Hague for actions taken in Darfur if he leaves the country .

Although this is not the first time Mr. Trump has praised an Arab strongman, his expression of support for Mr. Hifter appears to be the first time that Mr. Trump has embraced an aspiring authoritarian who is not yet in power and may never get there.

A former general under Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi and also a former C.I.A. client, Mr. Hifter had been living in exile in the United States but returned to Libya during the Arab Spring uprisings in 2011. He first declared his intention to seize power in 2014, when Libya’s nascent transitional government was struggling to establish its authority over freewheeling militias around the country —from NY Times

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/19/world/middleeast/trump-libya-khalifa-haftar.html

Something about this HIfter fellow Trump really lkes, also

Muffolini
Pol Pof
Idi Amif
Josel Stafin

haha yes, I was going to say it was probably just a typo by Trump

would like "Moffe growing vpon the skull of a man" but 77

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2019/04/saudi-arabia-37-put-to-death-in-shocking-execution-spree/

among those executed is Abdulkareem al-Hawaj – a young Shi’a man who was arrested at the age of 16 and convicted of offences related to his involvement in anti-government protests. Under international law, the use of the death penalty against people who were under the age of 18 at the time of the crime is strictly prohibited.

https://www.freep.com/story/news/education/2019/04/23/saudi-arabia-beheadings-executions-mujtaba-al-sweikat/3552679002/

A Saudi Arabian man who was arrested as a teenager as he was getting ready to fly to America to begin his studies at Western Michigan University was beheaded by the government Tuesday, according to a report from an official press agency.

Mujtaba al-Sweikat was 17 when he was detained at King Fahd International Airport in 2012. Earlier that year, Al-Sweikat allegedly attended a pro-democracy rally in the midst of the Arab Spring, which led to his arrest. He was intending to visit Western Michigan, where he had been accepted as a student, the university confirmed to the Free Press in 2017.

jesus christ

Kingdom of nightmares.

Are we really not gonna talk about the massive political clusterfuck unfolding in Israel right now? Not at all clear Netanyahu can form a government and he's (quite possibly successfully) inducing the Knesset to dissolve itself 6 weeks after it was elected in order to keep anyone but Bibi from having a chance to form a coalition. Meanwhile, Likud is merging with Kulanu against its own constitutional rules. And this may all end with Netanyahu caving to his chief adversaries in the farther-right-than-Netanyahu wing.

Or is Bibi just using the threat of dissolution to get Liberman to cave to the ultra-Orthodox and in the end there'll be a last-minute coalition deal? Who in this mess wants a new election?

Meanwhile, Sara Netanyahu pled guilty to corruption charges today and will reimburse the government $15,000. With three hours to go Netanhayu is still stuck one short of a majority. Reports are that he reached out to his bitter enemies in Labor and was rejected. I don't really understand what the deal is with the dissolution of the Knesset, when the deadline for that is. Netanyahu could still easily walk out of this with something he can call a win, as he so often does.

if the knesset is dissolved there's another election

3 options are: bibi is able to form government, bibi is able to pass bill to dissolve knesset and new election happens, bibi doesn't form government and knesset isn't dissolved, president rivlin will ask another member of the knesset to try and form a government

I guess what I'm wondering is does Rivlin immediately ask another MK to form a government two hours from now, or does the Knesset still have time to dissolve even if Netanyahu misses his deadline?

Latest report is that Knesset will vote on dissolution in about an hour and a half so I guess the answer is, Knesset has to break up now if it's going to keep a non-Bibi from getting a shot.

short thread

What’s about to go down in the Knesset is the wildest political moment I can recall. I’m 95% confident that the Knesset will vote to dissolve, but there’s still a small chance of an international Likud coup to oust Netanyahu 1/

— (((Michael Koplow))) (@mkoplow) May 29, 2019

nm that small chance apparently they did vote to dissolve but could've been hilarious

september election seems a bit of a long run up time

I’m still surprised how little attention this seems to be getting. This is quite likely the end of Bibi and could very well be the end of Likud’s dominance, couldn’t it?

I don't know, I'll believe in the end of Bibi when I see it. It's like Berlusconi, he's never gone. Just one thing after the other, trying to shield himself from the law, dragging everyone further and further into the mud. Frankly, it's boring.

Fred OTM.

I don’t think it’s getting more attention partially because the reason behind the gov collapse (military exemptions for charedim) doesn’t fit neatly into the West’s interests in the conflict (even if ultimately ousting Bibi would have an impact in that area as well one could imagine).

I don't think it's at all clear this is the end of Bibi or the end of Likud dominance. I don't see what other political bloc has the ability to govern. With a new election, some parties may clear the threshold who didn't before, some may fall below who made it before, and the calculus of seats will likely be slightly different; and Netanyahu only fell one vote short of a governing coalition, so it makes sense for him to roll the dice. On the other hand, what "makes sense" means is "makes sense for someone whose only goal is to remain in power, no matter how much chaos and expense it causes the country," or, more charitably, "makes sense for someone whose ego is so overwhelming that he thinks the country is helpless without his strong hand, which thus has to remain on the steering wheel by any means necessary."

Lots of things could happen. The next election could return a Knesset where Netanyahu could put together a weak government dependent on favors to small parties to his right. Or there could be a Likud revolt followed by a unity government with a non-Netanyahu Likud PM and Gantz joining. (Gantz has already said Blue and White is open to participating in a coalition with post-Netanyahu Likud.) Or I guess if Blue and White improves their standing thanks to nationwide Netanyahu fatigue (which I do think is real to some extent) I guess there could be a Gantz-led government (which I emphasize would not really be on the left though it would include the left-wing parties.)

the reason behind the gov collapse (military exemptions for charedim)

One thing I don't get is whether this is the real reason -- I mean, it's the proximate reason, but there's also some chatter that people really are tired of Netanyahu's constant attempts to make the state his fiefdom and that even on the right he is no longer seen as indispensable; what do you think?

I think it's a combination of two things. One - in order to secure the majority Bibi had to cannibalize other smaller right-wing groups which made his coalition extremely tenuous and gave outsized power to individual members like Lieberman. Two - Lieberman used that outsized power to demand the end to charedi military exemptions and refused to budge. If Bibi had more working room or Lieberman hadn't put his foot down then Bibi would have another government in place right now. I do think it's possible Likud could've made a coalition with someone other than Bibi in charge but I think these other two issues are much more critical.

I think Bennett + Shaked will almost certainly make it into the government this time around.

Isn't that what Theresa May tried to do, form a coalition government with far right Irish religious extremists or something? Worked out well for her.

No, she just bribed a bunch of trolls, chancers and right wing evangelicals in Northern Ireland with a cool billion quid to vote with her government - true to fashion, they took the money and voted against her anyway.

Not that I should need to school Americans on these people as their forebears and their descendants are responsible for so much of the shittiest aspects of US history.

Poor Sudan. They get rid of their dictator but now the military is killing the peaceful protesters

https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/06/04/sudan-halt-attacks-protesters

Once the military had recovered from the confusion around Mr Bashir's overthrow it regrouped and the most hard line elements took control.

This explains the pre-eminence of the RSF commander, Mohammed "Hemedti" Hamadan whose personal ruthlessness in Darfur always made him the most likely leader of a counter-revolution.

Unlike many of the military elite "Hemedti" is an outsider.

From a rural background he has no family ties or sentimental affiliation with the young middle class protesting on the streets of the Khartoum.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-48517768

I'm torn on the tank ship attacks. On the one hand, I think Iran is smart enough to do it, and it is pretty smart. On the other, while it would be stupid for Saudi Arabia to do it, they clearly are that stupid.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/japanese-oil-tanker-owner-says-us-is-wrong-about-gulf-attack

it's pretty crazy who the us had such a definitive answer in like 24 hrs .

how*

morsi's death after years in solitary confinement not receiving anywhere near adequate medical care will not be looked on kindly by historians

a lot of ppl in the sudanese diaspora arranging protests, raising attention and trying to put international pressure on the transitional military council at what cld be a critical time. with the state controlling all of the media and lots of ppl in rural sudan relying heavily on the radio and an underfunded & vulnerable opposition movement, there seems to be a lot of pessimism and uncertainty over the plans for elections and concerns they'll end up with someone like sisi backed by the arab league and china, who are talking a lot about stability, and russia, who are also raising very legitimate concerns abt extremists

Forget your Danish film critic's armchair speculations this is really good on the tanker episode:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/19/donald-trump-reckless-iran-policy-casts-doubt-us-global-leader

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/19/jamal-khashoggi-killing-saudi-crown-prince-mohammed-bin-salman-evidence-un-report

Huge if true: Turkey ruling party set to lose Istanbul election

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48739256

There was no way for them to win without fixing it and no way of fixing it without making it obvious so it was seen locally by a lot of people as a huge indicator of whether AKP would go fully down the route of squashing democracy when it doesn’t suit them. The question is whether they’ll try to invalidate the results but idk if that is likely to happen twice.

The latter is obviously very much a question mark still. Even so, obvious fixing hasn't stopped the AKP before, so it is still somewhat surprising imo.

interview w/ matti friedman (who i like a lot tho i still need to read his latest book) on a topic that was v close to my mind when i started the first MENA thread - how israel is easier to understand in the context of the middle east than in the context of europe

https://www.timesofisrael.com/nobody-hijacked-israel-its-just-not-what-its-pioneers-thought-theyd-created/

relatedly (sorta) is how surprised i am whenever i see naive leftists suggesting that mizrahim might be partners w/ palestinians in challenging the israeli elite ashkenazi status quo - as if they don't realize that mizrahim are far more right-wing and "middle eastern" than ashkenazim and that utopian + peace focused politicians have always come from that so-called elite.

he links to this article from 2015 that is related (but more about mizrachi music) and might also be interesting to ilxors/ilmers:
https://www.tabletmag.com/jewish-arts-and-culture/music/193162/israels-happiness-revolution

interesting piece, he could spell out a bit more explicitly what values and opinions h"Middle-eastern-ness" is supposed to represent

Is Catch-67 worth getting? Anybody checked it out yet?

Seeing lots of quoted favorable reviews of Catch-67- The Left, the Right, and the Legacy of the Six Dy War by Micah Goodman, but I haven't read it and don't know anyone who has

Wonder if its a response to Guy Laron's book, which makes the case for a months long premediation for a war of aggression.

no gov't for Benny. Time for yet another election!

Not necessarily - indictment coming down tomorrow supposedly which could mean Likud minus Bibi aka potential gov as minor partner

indictment meaning Bibi would step aside? or would he have to be removed/challenged from within the party?

Either potentially I imagine depends on whether Bibi and Likud think he can beat it?

Bibi is getting all Trumpy like in his criticisms re attorney general he appointed. Bibi's status could get get ruled upon by Israel Supreme Court

so sick of this left wing anti semitism from uh Israeli Attorney General Avichai Mendelblit

"Channel 13 News reported that Hollywood producer Milchan, the central figure in Case 1000, told police that he attended a dinner at the Prime Minister's Residence in which Netanyahu's wife lashed at the Adelsons, telling them, 'You are spilling my blood, you are all spilling my blood.” Sheldon Adelson reportedly responded: "Calm down, we're doing the best we can. I lose 40 to 50 million dollars a year [on Israel Hayom]. … We regularly write in your favor and you keep shouting at me."

Another report from Channel 12 involving testimony from Case 2000 quoted Miriam Adelson as saying that Sara Netanyahu “once told me that if Iran gets nuclear weapons and Israel is wiped out, I’ll be to blame, because I’m not defending Bibi.”

Both the prime minister and his wife complained about their coverage with the Adelson newspaper’s former editor in chief, Amos Regev, both in person and in “screaming phone calls.”

Eventually, Miriam Adelson said, she and her husband got fed up and stopped visiting the Netanyahus."

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-netanyahu-israel-indictment-cases-charges-1.8160019

Still think they should name the US Embassy after Adelson, who effectively paid for it with his own money

warming up to bibi and sara reading that anecdote

does any other asshole world leader have such an affectionate nickname that both his supporters and haters use?

refuse to call this piece of shit "Bibi"

my dad (a chilean exile from the pinochet dictatorship) and i sometimes jokingly refer to pinochet as "el tata" (grampa) so i don't mind calling netanyahu bibi

Dubya?

This thread is not getting used that much. Do we start a 2020 one, anyway?

We can discuss>

Netanyahu wants temporary immunity

Predicting how Iran will respond to the US action.

Complexity of knowing that Soleimani was responsible also for crushing Iranian and Syrian opponents of dictators in addition to Americans who never should have been in Iraq, but determining that if an outside force takes action against him without authority, that end result may still not help poor folks who were suffering in those countries, or help Western powers either

i think a new thread makes sense. it got over 200 posts and i definitely used it last year for things i'd otherwise be bumping this thread to post

Any new title ideas for thread? I see an older Iranian thread is getting use now

We're talking about sand and death

"We're talking about sand and death-- Middle East, North Africa and other nearby Political Hotspots 2020 " works for me

"We're talking about sand and death"-- Middle East, North Africa (MENA) and other nearby Political Hotspots 2020

New thread started