The Eurozone Crisis Thread

He thinks it was good lol

It was armed robbery on a continental scale.

I think everyone (well almost) itt is aware that France in Africa was bad - though never as bad as Belgium. God!

Belgium still had a Human Zoo in the late 50's, but still not as bad as the UK's 60's gulags in Kenya, where lots of ww2 veterans who fought Rommel in N Africa on a zero pay - only rations deal ended up.

Assume these far right fascists are getting ready for the brown skinned climate refugees that are coming in the upcoming decades.

make this work u fux

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/10/italy-pm-conte-left-leaning-coalition-vote-of-confidence

I know it's Goodwin but EU is showing itself to be utterly inadequate.

New poll in Italy hints at the possible political effects of #coronavirus if EU does not get its act together

88% of Italians say "EU is not helping us"

% who say "EU membership is advantage" has dropped 16 pts to 21%. "EU membership is disadvantage" up 20 pts to 67% pic.twitter.com/o0b7U0I2wq

— Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) March 15, 2020

What would be adequacy in this regard?

I don't know but this isn't it.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/ecbs-plan-to-support-eurozone-banks-is-underwhelming

Also lack of co-ordinated action beyond market stability. Italy might need further funds. It will be interesting to see how the EU react (although maybe they should be proactive).

Just noting the silence.

Agreed, I just don't think a poll about "are they doing enough or not" this early in the crisis, asking Italians at this point, is unlikely to show a different result imo. They can't rest on their laurels like they have done until now, I'm def with you on that.

Xxp So you’re basically asking for more integration and coordination at EU level?
I don’t see how a poll shows anything about efficiency of EU response. Real problem right now is haphazard and uncoordinated measures from Member States

Yes, and while it's just one poll it could be a sign of things to come.

It's interesting that while the EU sets all kinds of regulatory standards on any and everything it has basically let member states do what they want in this public health crisis.

it has basically let member states do what they want in this public health crisis.

― xyzzzz__, Monday, March 16, 2020 12:15 PM (six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

It doesn't have any authority to do otherwise. And why should they want to? Leaving this to the individual countries is the best (least worse) option here imo. If only because "EU said so" makes swathes of people do the opposite these days.

It's about leadership and coordination of activity across sectors. The EU has no problems dictating to member states when it wants to. It has done so in the past when the markets demanded so it definitely has authority.

But again it's not about imposing so much as getting countries together to coordinate a plan of cross-border action. That kind of thing.

In the case of Italy it's also showing solidarity with the most affected. It's recession will be deep, they will need a lot of financial assistance.

I do think this could turn into an existential crisis for the EU. Would it survive Italy going under? It would be so, so much worse than the Greek crisis.

A shitty piece of axe-grinding from Matthew Goodwin is a terrible pretext for starting this discussion and it doesn't feel like it's progressing from a place of either good faith or any real knowledge of what is and isn't happening.

great news everyone: you can completely ignore matthew goodwin forever and there's no downside

This couldn't have come at a worse time for Italy though, which is heavily indebted and hasn't seen any growth for a decade or more. Once the health crisis abates and the economic one kicks in, it's going to be pretty brutal

Unless there is a very public aid effort to Italy from the EU, and not along similar terms to what happened with Greece, then the likelihood of Italy just voting to leave the EU feels almost inevitable?

I'd have a lot more faith in Eat The Book Guy if he didn't feel so much more like an active and gleeful participant than an academic observer. The fact that he's so clearly partisan diminishes the value of his research even when it's throwing up insights that people need to pay attention to.

Also what's happening to Italy will almost happen to several more nations before this is over and it won't just affect the poorer ones.

I did put in the caveat as to whom that tweet was from but I also did link that piece from Elliott last week. Both are no fans of the EU.

Only putting that in because what the EU are doing or not has been under-reported.

Who's Eat The Book guy?

I think there will be a big support for Italy tbf, and other countries hit by this hard. Just think it might be a bit too early to already go Eu DoEs NoThInG!1 We're still at this being the most urgent now. I'm sure it will be followed by funding soon, but first things first?

"Eu DoEs NoThInG!1"

People have seen the spread of the virus in East Asia at the beginning of the year. It's surely right to question whether Public Officials -- who are paid to monitor and be ahead of the curve -- have been sitting and hoping it wouldn't spread or were actually coordinating any kind of action.

Who's Eat The Book guy?

Matthew Goodwin. I am sure the video of him eating a book on TV is still up.

I know someone who does emergency planning for manchester council. all worst case scenario stuff but these contingency plans def exist in some vague form.

Ah I see, ty.

Re: EU, of course it's right to question that. Just wondering what measures could Italy not feel let down right now.

xp

Not sure where this theoretical EU pot of gold is supposed to come from - it's the Member States holding the money and EU competence in area of public health is close to nil. I guess you'll be comparing the situation to the financial crisis- but in this instance, there were mechanisms already in place to put together financial packages. So ultimately the question is basically whether Germany and France will agree to inject massive sums to save Italy, which I guess is unlikely for the time being since they will have to reckon wih their own crisis. So maybe your overall point holds, in situations of widespread crisis, cross-border solidarity goes out the window (cf. export bans of medical masks by some countries)

As long as we don't have an EU-wide health system (yes I know about the EHIC), this isn't to be managed at the EU level.

I think France and Germany will inject massive sums into Italy, yes. The ECB can print euros as needed. nb I am a philosopher not an economist.

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/03/18/1584528247000/The-ECB-is-under-pressure-to-act-fast--/

Acting now..

😷😷😷

Italian bond yields jump as EU leaders fail to reach agreement
The failure to reach an EU deal is causing investors to worry about the eurozone, with Italian borrowing costs rising. Talks have been suspended until tomorrow.

Eurogroup chairman Mario Centeno said on Wednesday morning:

After 16 hours of discussions we came close to a deal but we are not there yet. I suspended the Eurogroup and (we will) continue tomorrow.”

Failure to share the financial risks between hard-hit countries such as Italy and Spain and wealthier nations such as the Netherlands and Germany could endanger the eurozone response to the pandemic, so investors are watching closely.

Via Reuters:

The 10-year Italian yield rose 20 basis points to 1.799% in early European trading, hitting its highest since March 19. Two-year bonds yields were up 22 basis points [0.22 percentage points] on the day at 0.79%, the highest in three weeks.

The gap between German and Italian 10-year bond yields also widened to 213 basis points [2.13 percentage points], up 29 basis points [0.29 percentage points] on the day.

#Italy bonds rally w/10y risk spread over Germany plunges to 235bps as Moody’s hints that it could hold off downgrading Italy to junk. Moody’s currently ranks Italy as Baa3, its lowest investment grade, w/review scheduled for May8. S&P will review Italy rating this evening. pic.twitter.com/OhBuMKIS85

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) April 24, 2020

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-europe-economy-recovery-france-germany-grants-macron-merkel-a9520566.html

Breaking: Apple and Ireland have won their appeal against the European Commission's €13.1 billion ruling:

The General Court of the European Union annuls the decision taken by the
Commission regarding the Irish tax rulings in favour of Apple

— Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) July 15, 2020

Seems bad. Potentially no impediment to Eurozone countries setting an effective 0.005% tax rate on international companies afaict, though it will be appealed.

ffffs

If Berlusconi somehow ends up as PM that will be another pretty good indication of where 2021 is headed https://t.co/sQYdfqxzmu

— Populism Updates (@PopulismUpdates) January 12, 2021

No, grazie.