hot stove 2018-19

obv the system that necessitates these deals in the first place needs to be overturned but there is always a rush to call these deals huge wins for the team but like... does anyone think gregory polanco is a huge steal on what is essentially the 3/24 left on the extension he signed in 2016? development timelines are wacky

i've seen that argument before and it feels like it's based on a concept of "value" that is just the player's potential positive impact over the course of the contract. but every one of these longer-term contracts is based on a market value that balances potential long-term positive impact with potential risk. the risk is factored into the value. and even with that risk factored in, acuna (and trout, and probably other players) are still being underpaid based on that value.

xpost

Obviously some of these contracts suck but in the greater national context of pay inequity it's very hard for me to get worked up about. We're talking about a little more than 600 employees whose average salary is $3.5 million (!)

Alll this indignation would be more productively aimed at perpetrators in the real world. The average salary for CEO at an S&P 500 firm is >350x that of the average laborer.

the players have a legit union w/ real leverage that will serve them again in time, which is more than can be said for almost all the rest of us

i am capable of being indignant about more than one thing

great facebook post though

you are special, most humans have finite resources of time and energy

xp thanks!

gregory polanco did not put up 4 war and win rookie of the year as a 20yo (and even 2 war/season, as polanco did last year, is more than enough to justify his contract).

it's hard to blame acuna -- he's a 21yo kid from venezuela who is now more than set for life. but i don't think the braves are taking on much risk at all. this might be an optimistic example, but mookie got $10m in his first year of arbitration and $20m in his second; acuna has locked himself into less than that for his entire prime. maybe the free agent system is irreparably broken and we don't know what 1 war is worth in an unopen market, but if we go by $8m-$9m, all the braves are risking is that acuna won't be worth 2 war per season throughout his 20s.

anyway, acuna's rich, braves ownership gets to keep more money, so it goes

Beetlejuice:
The in-unison chorus of “Acuna getting $100M is a ripoff” is a bit troubling to me. Why do so many media Acuna should immediately adopt their opinion because they “know better.” He’s trying to do what’s best for him and his family and everyone’s risk preference is different. (Even if it’s team friendly – the current landscape of media combativeness is no bueno)

Meg Rowley:
The deal is hilariously light for talented a player. I think we can recognize why an individual wants to be set for life while still bemoaning the incentives at work that inspired him to sign such a deal.

The media’s job isn’t to be conciliatory toward teams. Our job is to properly assess and analyze baseball news.

i have a side question but has anyone done any mathy articles describing why everyone places a "dollar value" on WAR as if it's geometric and not e.g. logarithmic? like why is a 9-WAR player worth 3 times a 3-WAR player? is it because there are so many players on a team + a multi-year deal means even more players over time?

also i'm not a math boss so idk if i am using geometric and logarithmic right. i don't even know if i'm spelling the last one right. i'm a fuckin mess

linear vs log is what you're looking for.

Wins are measured integrally, so it lends itself to the linear scale.

cubs extend ... david bote? through ... 2024?

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