There are definitely some in both directions, but I don’t think you can assume the overall effect comes out to 0. They’re being compared to a replacement level player, not an average major league player. So the overall effect could still be a positive one, right? tbh I’m not sure
― but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Friday, 22 March 2019 17:15 (five years ago) link
I don't think so? for example baserunning is in runs above average, UZR is runs above average...the replacement adjustment comes after all that is sorted out. at least that would be my guess
― k3vin k., Friday, 22 March 2019 17:17 (five years ago) link
Yeah, but what I’m saying is (and I’m on an iPhone sorry) a catcher could be below average pitch framing (negative compared to the index of 0) but still get a slight WAR boost if they’re still better than a hypothetical replacement catcher. In other words, some catchers may be below average in pitch framing, but when the effect of pitch framing is incorporated into WAR it’s still a positive one - they’re stealing strikes at a level below the MLB average but above a replacement player. Note: this is a wild guess! And I understand that some catchers are so bad at it that the WAR effect is negative - they’re worse than replacement. But I’d think it would be possible for the overall systematic effect to be positive, because it’s accounting for an aspect of catcher value that wasn’t there before. And if the overall effect does lean positive, that would be compensated for by a small negative effect among pitchers
― but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Friday, 22 March 2019 17:34 (five years ago) link
hmm. this would be a great question for the fangraphs chat!
― k3vin k., Friday, 22 March 2019 17:53 (five years ago) link
I’m kinda surprised that they didn’t post some sort of supplementary article talking about the ramifications of all this
― but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Friday, 22 March 2019 18:16 (five years ago) link
I wouldn't be surprised if we found a technology that allows to track pitch framing before 2008 (and after once all games were televised) which could also alter say Piazza, Carter or Posada's WAR totals.
WAR is going to be ever changing as long as is we assume there is fog wrt to the defensive aspect to the game so I'm cool with wily nily changes. Franchises seem to cook with their own data sauces anyway. I don't think the financial value of catchers is going to change a lot, if it does it is bound to be positive.
― Van Horn Street, Friday, 22 March 2019 21:40 (five years ago) link
Since there are no other Hall of Fame arguments going on at the moment, I would just like to state what seems obvious. A place in the Hall of Fame is an honor to be given to those most worthy of admiration and respect. It is not a paycheck to be awarded based on a resume.— Bill James Online (@billjamesonline) April 7, 2019
Not obvious enough, because I'm not quite sure what that means...Harold Baines, yes; Curt Schilling, no? I don't think James actually believes that, so further explanation required.
― clemenza, Sunday, 7 April 2019 15:41 (five years ago) link
this season Mike Trout has passed these players in career bWAR:
Vic WillisDave Winfield (he was tied with these two at the start of the season)
Roy HalladayWillie McCoveyReggie SmithClayton Kershaw(!)Andrew DawsonChase UtleyCraig BiggioEd WalshAmos RusieWillie RandolphLuis TiantGoose GoslinPee Wee ReeseBuddy BellDuke SniderJoe Cronin
assuming he winds up with a 10 bWAR season (seems like a reasonable assumption??) he'd pass almost 50 additional players.
― omar little, Friday, 26 April 2019 18:52 (four years ago) link
you all remember good old Andrew Dawson of course
― omar little, Friday, 26 April 2019 18:53 (four years ago) link
assuming he winds up with a 10 bWAR season (seems like a reasonable assumption??)Things that only make sense on a Mike Trout thread
― these are not all of the possible side effects (Karl Malone), Friday, 26 April 2019 19:53 (four years ago) link
Andrew "The Hak" Dawson
― d'ILM for Murder (Hadrian VIII), Friday, 26 April 2019 22:14 (four years ago) link
Trout's passed a few more dudes in bWAR since that post a few weeks back:
Zack Greinke (seems to really be the current-era Mussina, with higher highs and less consistency early on)John SmoltzRobinson CanoRed RuffingAl SimmonsEddie MurrayIvan RodriguezCarlton Fisk (the two Pudges next to each other in bWAR, v cute)Edgar MartinezJim PalmerCarl HubbellKenny LoftonGraig NettlesRyne SandbergFred ClarkeKevin BrownErnie BanksRoberto AlomarDon DrysdaleDwight EvansDon SuttonTony Mullane
― omar little, Thursday, 20 June 2019 22:58 (four years ago) link
*current Mussina in terms of quietly building that HOF case
― omar little, Thursday, 20 June 2019 22:59 (four years ago) link
Tony Mullane - I was there the day that he went into the Reds Hall of Fame. Mullane had been dead since 1944, but it is still cool. The guy was born in Ireland.
― earlnash, Thursday, 20 June 2019 23:42 (four years ago) link
Felix, Verlander, and Sabathia are all scrambled up right now. The best of them, Felix, may fall short because of health (unless it's a mid-career blip); the least impressive, CC, may be back in the picture after he looked dead. Verlander, who knows.
― clemenza, Monday, June 19, 2017 7:49 PM (two years ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
two years pass....
Felix is looking not just like a guy who won't make the HOF but he probably won't even come close, like possibly sub-5% first time out. It's really unfortunate, he turned 33 just a couple months ago and could have put up some crazy numbers but things don't always work out...
Sabathia has been pretty solid the past few years and added to his WAR total and i have no idea what the HOF voters will make of him. He's so much better than Morris, but in the end his career will fall short of a few other contemporaries who seem "arguable".
Verlander is first-ballot at this point.
― omar little, Tuesday, 25 June 2019 18:03 (four years ago) link
i think cc's probably in; he got the 3000 K, he got the 250 wins, and i think we're getting to the point where there won't be too many more starters like that
also i think he should go in as a brewer, because that was pretty much the only time he was truly dominant
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 25 June 2019 18:15 (four years ago) link
I hope on Bernie's slide
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 25 June 2019 18:18 (four years ago) link
i had wondered about Ortiz getting in on the first ballot but now i think he makes it in easily the first time around...
― omar little, Tuesday, 25 June 2019 18:21 (four years ago) link
clearly Felix needs to get himself shot.
― Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, 25 June 2019 18:23 (four years ago) link
there's no particular reason for ortiz to go in before manny tho
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 25 June 2019 18:25 (four years ago) link
Manny needs to also get shot
― omar little, Tuesday, 25 June 2019 18:31 (four years ago) link
i mean all the intangibles involving Ortiz winning a third WS title, finishing his career in Boston with a season on par w/his peak era, being generally beloved by everyone, getting wounded by an idiot assassin...he will get in before Manny for sure.
― omar little, Tuesday, 25 June 2019 18:33 (four years ago) link
those are all basically tangible
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 25 June 2019 18:53 (four years ago) link
i guess they are fairly tangible...
i think he does deserve to make it personally, Morbs i suspect maybe you're not exactly "con" on that point but more ambivalent...?
― omar little, Tuesday, 25 June 2019 18:57 (four years ago) link
Ortiz getting in on "lovability" will surely crack the door for Bonds Mcguire Clemens et al
― d'ILM for Murder (Hadrian VIII), Tuesday, 25 June 2019 23:58 (four years ago) link
I continue to be interested in David Price's case.
There are definitely pitchers ahead of him--obvious ones like Kershaw and Scherzer, but probably Lester and Hamels, too. I think he's plugging along, though.
His two biggest obstacles will be wins and WAR. (Or, by the time he comes up for induction, WAR and wins.) He's 33 and has won 149, so he may--should--get to 200. I'd say getting to 200 is important. He's at 40 WAR; he'll probably end up between 50-55. That'll be a tough sell.
Everything else is good. His ERA+ is 125, his FIP is right in line with his good career ERA, he's just shy of a strikeout per inning, has good WHIP and K/BB ratios. And other stuff: ace of many staffs, a Cy Young, a WS title, and--counteracting his poor overall postseason numbers (which was a story)--his great WS last year (I still think he should have won MVP).
He's in a precarious spot--if he doesn't do much from this point forward, he could conceivably drop off the ballot after a year. But 4-5 more solid years and I think he has a chance.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 3 July 2019 14:06 (four years ago) link
if you give him the benefit of the doubt and say that 2020-24 will be as good as 2015-19, he'd get to 200 wins and 60 WAR. but i just don't think he's got much of a chance. maybe better than Felix, on par w/Lester and Hamels, not as good as CC, nowhere near as good as Scherzer/Kershaw/Verlander, nor Greinke for that matter.
― omar little, Wednesday, 3 July 2019 15:53 (four years ago) link
I'd say that has him about exactly right, with Lester/Hamels. I'd give him a slight edge over those two because of his Cy and two ERA titles, plus he has two years on them.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 3 July 2019 16:09 (four years ago) link
And throw in Chris Sale as one of the guys ahead of him. Kluber--33 and in the midst of a terrible season--hard to say at this point.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 3 July 2019 16:12 (four years ago) link
Kluber was top-tier for a few seasons but he'd have to recover and pitch close to that form and clear 200 wins to have a chance, i think. otherwise he'll be in Santana/Saberhagen territory.
― omar little, Wednesday, 3 July 2019 16:14 (four years ago) link
i'd put Greinke ahead of Price as well.
― Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Wednesday, 3 July 2019 16:15 (four years ago) link
kluber wasn't even a full-time big league starter until he was 27 -- he's been extremely good but just getting the appropriate quantity is almost impossible
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 3 July 2019 16:19 (four years ago) link
I think Greinke's having the best HOF-directed season of anybody this year (along with Verlander). He was in very good shape going into the season, he may be close to a lock now.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 3 July 2019 16:19 (four years ago) link
oh right – Verlander too.
― Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Wednesday, 3 July 2019 16:21 (four years ago) link
price has broken 4 bWAR in three seasons and 5 in just one
and verlander probably should have won price's cy young
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 3 July 2019 16:24 (four years ago) link
Because they have to follow through on the premise, obviously some of these are silly--they even put "likeliest" in quotation marks in the title.
https://www.mlb.com/news/every-team-s-next-hall-of-famer
Of the legitimate picks, I disagree with one: no knock on C.C., but I think Stanton's a better choice for the Yankees, assuming his current injury isn't long-term serious.
500 HR: 27 players3,000 K: 17 pitchers600 HR: 9 players
I guess it depends on whether you think Stanton will hit 500 or 600 HR. I'm guessing 600.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 23 July 2019 04:03 (four years ago) link
If you use the Favorite Toy, he has a 96.9 % chance of hitting 500 and a 46.9% chance of hitting 600.
― timellison, Tuesday, 23 July 2019 05:57 (four years ago) link
Sounds reasonable. That'll drop, maybe quite a bit, going into next season, but the drop would be artificial if you assume the injury's a blip.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 23 July 2019 12:05 (four years ago) link
I would not assume the injury is a blip
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Tuesday, 23 July 2019 12:25 (four years ago) link
I thought it was something he's coming back from 100%. If that's not true, you can throw out everything I've said--even if he got to 500 with a few average seasons, I doubt very much he'd go in.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 23 July 2019 12:34 (four years ago) link
something funky is defintely going on w Stanton, the official word on his injury (injuries?) has been shifting and vague both times on the IL.
There is something about the way he moves even when healthy, a kind of rigidity to his motions, that has me feeling he won't perform well deep into this contract.
― The Ravishing of ROFL Stein (Hadrian VIII), Tuesday, 23 July 2019 12:58 (four years ago) link
I’m not really a fan of the way his swing works now that I’ve seen him “everyday”/not in highlights. seems like a lot of upper body jerking without any hips, if that makes sense
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Tuesday, 23 July 2019 13:00 (four years ago) link
it's gotta be the ugliest swing in baseball
― The Ravishing of ROFL Stein (Hadrian VIII), Tuesday, 23 July 2019 13:07 (four years ago) link
You should see mine!
― Van Horn Street, Tuesday, 23 July 2019 16:35 (four years ago) link
I'm sure your OPS is lower but I doubt it's not a sweeter stroke
― The Ravishing of ROFL Stein (Hadrian VIII), Tuesday, 23 July 2019 16:37 (four years ago) link
Stanton would be an interesting pick, he's had a great career but he's also periodically been the Tulo of slugging outfielders. his injury history would worry me if i had money riding on his HOF induction, and he's turning 30 in a couple of months and doesn't strike me as a guy who's going to age exceptionally well.
― omar little, Tuesday, 23 July 2019 17:06 (four years ago) link
Freeman does have a pretty decent case though i could see him falling into the Olerud trap: great career but not given the respect due because of the types of power stats associated with first basemen.
I think if Bryant keeps up a consistent career with decent WAR numbers he could get in with a boost from the MVP and Cubs' world series title.
I think Scherzer was in already before this season, he had just been too good. But sure, this year helps.
― omar little, Tuesday, 23 July 2019 17:18 (four years ago) link
Exactly my sentiments on Freeman. Whereas there would seem to be a ceiling on him that falls short of the HOF--always good+, never great--there isn't yet a clear ceiling on Acuna, and I'd be more inclined to go with him (or even Albies).
― clemenza, Tuesday, 23 July 2019 17:21 (four years ago) link
I can always count on you guys to extrapolate future health/performance on a player who is still shut down from all baseball activities from an injury that happened in May.
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Tuesday, 23 July 2019 17:40 (four years ago) link
You realize I'm a licensed physician, right?
― clemenza, Tuesday, 23 July 2019 17:44 (four years ago) link