Open for Business: Canadian Politics 2019

much as I hate JT, I have such a horribly sinking fucking feeling about what comes after him

yeah it's going to be the tories and it's going to be v bad

It's going to be really bad if Trudeau gets away with an another electoral win too.

elaborate please

Not as bad as Scheer duh. But considering what just happened I wouldn't want the Canadian electorate to give Trudeau a sense of impunity and invincibility. Last time it happened in Canadian politics, with the liberal, it really sucked.

VHS, are you saying, in essence, that SNC Lavalin is too big to fail (or be prosecuted)? Nationalization would be one answer to that.

now you're talking my language

the NDP are so, so badly in need of a sharp leftward lurch and it drives me nuts that so many party rank and file don't agree

I believe if it is too big to fail it is too big to be nationalized, I think it merely moves the same problems from one location to another. An idea I have and have to verify is to gradually discriminate larger companies in favor of smaller companies on provincial and federal projects, so these smaller companies acquire the skills and workers to grow and it caps SNCL to become too huge to ever create this dependence. Pump equity into midsized companies like Stantec so they can diversify the amount of projects they can deliever (I think they don't have energy projects for example), it could also create a more balanced industry. Finally SNCL who is already kinda big, should not be able to buy smaller canadian firms but maybe that's already the case, I would have to check. Something similar to the big five banks is what I would aim for like over the next 20 years. It's easier to do for infrastructure than for aviation, which is the other similar big engineering problem Canada has. These are ideas they might be really bad.

"These are ideas, they might be really bad" <--not a bad NDP slogan actually

I would not trust a nationalised SNCL with a lib and cpc governement anymore than I do now.

hahaha xp

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to shuffle cabinet Friday. https://t.co/sMfbCWrnLG #cdnpoli

— CBC News Alerts (@CBCAlerts) March 1, 2019

That’ll help

yup, crisis averted!! JT's generational political instincts strike once again

sigh

the ‘jobs’ thing makes no sense

Could you expand on that? The whole economic angle seems fuzzy to me.

pic.twitter.com/LLfN8bSyrV

— Dril MP 🇨🇦 (@cdnparliawint) February 28, 2019

This guy has such a hate-on for teachers.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ford-ontario-school-boards-hiring-freeze-budget-1.5038662

So glad I'm getting out. We've had like 13 sick leaves in our school this year (including at least three stress-related), even though we have a really small staff. If class sizes go up, and there are more splits next year, it'll be chaos.

― clemenza, Saturday, March 2, 2019 5:31 PM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

A teacher friend was telling me last night about an increasing problem of violence in the classroom because of increased integration of special ed students into regular classrooms without adequate support.

Cuts to disability support in Ontario are also worrying. We're hearing about v elderly people who are losing home care (something that would be less expensive than institutionalized care in the long term) hours. (Ours haven't been touched, thankfully.)

I take it your friend teaches high school? Nothing like that where I am (and we actually have a contained class, so there's not as much integration; the girl who joins my class for art is angelic). Don't get me started on the lack of support for regular-stream kids with IEPs (not the fault of the support teachers--they're overwhelmed with paperwork). It'll all get worse for as long as Ford's around.

No, he teaches elementary school (but is a spec ed specialist, tbf)!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/philpott-resignation-trudeau-snc-lavalin-1.5042411

Jane Philpott, one of Justin Trudeau's most trusted ministers, announced today she has resigned from cabinet as the Liberal government's crisis over the SNC-Lavalin affair deepens.

he's fucked, but so are the rest of us

when PM Scheer and Trump meet for the first time I'm going to be upset

Ugh. Fuck all of this.

If Trudeau resigns I would see no problem following the party of JWR vs Scheer.

NB: Singh is a lame duck because lol Quebec.

One heartening thing about this whole debacle are the two women, Philpott and Wilson-Raybould. I'm trying to imagine similar actions within Trump's orbit and...it's impossible. (Cohen to a degree, but speaking out now is kind of risk-free for him.)

Singh is also just lame tbh

The problem with JWR taking over the party (if that is what is potentially happening here) is that, in the minds of too many voters, the Liberal brand itself is what is damaged, not just Trudeau. Enter Scheer.

One heartening thing about this whole debacle are the two women, Philpott and Wilson-Raybould. I'm trying to imagine similar actions within Trump's orbit and...it's impossible. (Cohen to a degree, but speaking out now is kind of risk-free for him.)

― clemenza, Monday, March 4, 2019 7:07 PM (thirty minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

More importantly I don’t see it happening with Scheer.

I mean, once upon a time I was convinced Dougie was too charmless to win an election, so I daren't underestimate pols that were never going to appeal to me anyway

I thought the same of Harper tbh.

Dispiriting how every time this kind of thing happens almost no one thinks to themselves 'perhaps I should try the NDP instead'. Do we really need a Scheer/Ford/Legault triumvirate?

Perhaps we'll get Faith Goldy as minister of immigration, refugees and citizenship.

I don't think a Tory win is guaranteed if Trudeau resigns.

NB: Singh is a lame duck because lol Quebec.

Not to beat on dylannn but just want to note that we cannot both believe this to be true and also not think it is pushing significant barriers for him to lead a major party into an election as a brown-skinned man in a turban (assuming these are the factors that VHS is implying).

Anyone keeping up with what is actually going on with SNC-Lavalin btw? The larger questions that were raised, touched on in the Luke Savage thread and the tbtf discussion here, are interesting.

This is some grim shit, admittedly:

“The Conservatives have over a 20-point lead in the 905, which has the most seats that swing back and forth in any election campaign,” said Bricker.

https://globalnews.ca/news/5021267/trudeau-approval-rating-snc-lavalin-wilson-raybould/

I don't know if this is at all right but it is an interesting comment I saw online that directly opposes the prevailing narrative:

the more i think about it the more i think wilson raybould is the one who has been unethical. she shepparded the law amenment through parliament which allows the government to step in and defer prosecution. if she had an issue with that law she should have resigned then. that law is questionable, but she should not have been surprised they were preparing to use the deferred prosecution option, and in fact her characterization of the facts is skewed. there would always be internal discussion about such a move. she disagreed, so jt excercised his abosolute right to remove her and put his own choice into the portfolio. and if he doesn't proceed with filing a decision in parliament to defer prosecution he's a wimp.

we do not have the pure shawcross doctrine in canada, first because we don't have a justice minister separate from the ag, and with the new amendment we have given the government the right to over rule a prosecutors decision. they are supposed to do this to protect innocent stake holders such as employees and pensioners.

one can question whether we should have a shawcross doctrine in full, and whether this law is wrong, but jwr had ample opportunity to do that and did nothing. she is what i used to call a mad dog prosecutor. they see everyhint as evidence of guilt. the very same discussions can also be seen as evidence of worry about job losses and pension loses.

so the scandal that wasn't there might bring down the liberals because a few mad dog mentality prosecutors and their supporters are posturing.

there is no there there.

Afaict, the nature of the "internal discussion" is salient to whether the Shawcross doctrine has been breached.

First, the Attorney General must take into account all relevant facts, including the effect of a successful or unsuccessful prosecution on public morale and order — we would probably now call this the public interest. Second, the Attorney General is not obliged to consult with cabinet colleagues but is entitled to do so. Third, any assistance from cabinet colleagues is confined to giving advice, not directions. Fourth, responsibility for the decision is that of the Attorney General alone; the government is not to put pressure on him or her. Fifth, and equally, the Attorney General cannot shift responsibility for the decision to the cabinet.

http://craigforcese.squarespace.com/public_law_blog/2019/2/9/laffaire-snc-lavalin-the-public-law-principles.html

The line is probably fuzzy, but I think the intensity of the "advice" (after she had explicitly told them that she had made up her mind) and the some of the reasons being given (partisan political reasons that go beyond public interest) are supposed to be part of the case that Trudeau and his staff had crossed the line into applying inappropriate pressure.

she shepparded the law amenment through parliament which allows the government to step in and defer prosecution. if she had an issue with that law she should have resigned then.

I don't know much about her role in the initial amendment, but wouldn't she probably say that she accepts the idea of DPAs in principle but that SNC failed to meet the standard in this particular case?

Will definitely read that post in full. xp

I mean regardless of the question of JRW and what she did, this whole episode is just showing Trudeau's ineptitude at governing a crisis.

absolutely

Will definitely read that post in full. xp

That was helpful.

Not to beat on dylannn but just want to note that we cannot both believe this to be true and also not think it is pushing significant barriers for him to lead a major party into an election as a brown-skinned man in a turban (assuming these are the factors that VHS is implying).

― All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Tuesday, March 5, 2019 8:18 AM (five hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

That is an important factor but as Chantal Hebert just reminded me on twitter, there is no reason for the Quebec electorate to elect a politician who does not speak the basics of their language. Even Harper understood this.

Misread, she talked about JRW. Back to the racist barrier.

Yeah, Singh's French seems competent to me, at least as good as Harper's. I'd be surprised if Scheer's was better.

How is Freeland's French? I thought it was OK?