hot stove 2018-19

I'm not sure that Bonds' $40M contract from 25 years ago is the best reference point here.

cardinals give miles mikolas 4/68

Amazing. His 2015 contract for the Yomiuri Giants was 2Y/$5M.

cardinals sign matt wieters to a minor league deal. he's not great, but he would be the best backup they've had since 2004, when yadi was the backup to mike matheny

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26113134/padres-sign-veteran-reliever-warren-1-year-deal

Twins should pounce on Keuchel and Kimbrel.

Keuchel must feel so dumb for turning down that $90M/5 extension from the Astros.

I think I’d be more mad at the agent, who is supposed to know these things

that agent is scott boras

iirc his former agent was the one who declined the $90/5 and that Boras is the new agent.

adam jones 1-year, $3 million with diamondbacks

alex bregman

he Astros and All-Star third baseman Alex Bregman have agreed to a five-year, $100 million contract extension, a source told MLB.com on Tuesday.

...His extension will cover his three arbitration years (2020-22) and his first two years of free agency (2023-24). Bregman will be entering his age-30 season when the contract expires.

Gio Gonzalez said the #Yankees deal was the only offer he got.

— Brendan Kuty (@BrendanKutyNJ) March 20, 2019

Top outfield prospect Eloy Jimenez and the Chicago White Sox are finalizing a long-term deal, league sources tell ESPN.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 20, 2019

it's gonna be like 10 years $27 million

sounds like six years + two club options for around $40m?

following the trail blazed by jon singleton and scott kingery

oh wait

Eloy Jimenez’s contract with the #WhiteSox is expected to max out at 8 years and valued between $75-80 million.

— Jesse Sanchez (@JesseSanchezMLB) March 20, 2019

would this remove the benefit of service-time manipulation, because if so i'm in favor

Isn't that Alex Bregman deal an absolute steal for the Astros? He's 25, so they get his six prime years for $17-M/season. What I am I missing?...I'm surprised he signed, unless he envisions a protracted strike.

The two arbitration years they're buying out lower the average, but after that he's basically making 30 per. Not too shabby but certainly below his value.

maybe he's taking the douchebag discount

Any neo-classical economist who truly believe that a subject is always self-interested and rational should look at Bregman's contract.

or trout's

Cardinals reportedly nearing extension with goldschmidt worth $130M

extensions are the new free agency

The cardinal fans in Jupiter FL must have given him a super nice standing ovation on his first plate appearance

#bfib

Extensions have been replacing free agency for a while now. Mauer and Votto's extensions (with "small market" teams) are two good examples of contracts that were unimaginable just a few years earlier.

Bregman becomes a free agent at age 30 and in another era would be poised to get a windfall 6-7 year deal. But in this era who knows. I can't blame him for wanting to eliminate those distractions for the next five years, in any case he's set for life. This was basically Aaron Nola's reasoning too and he signed for less than half of what Bregman got.

So many extensions happening that Snell's $50M/5 got buried.

Sale $150M/5

Lol at Sale outperforming Snell x3 in the next 5 yrs

Verlander gets a $66 million extension with the Astros covering 2020-21

whoops

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ronald-acuna-jr-s-new-contract-is-staggering/

Players simply haven’t given up four free agent seasons this far from free agency, especially players of Acuña’s caliber. A guarantee for half that amount that ensured that Acuña hit free agency in his 20s likely would have been a better deal for Acuña and a positive deal for the Braves. This deal isn’t a steal because of the system that players and owners have set up. This is a deal that, even within that system, will likely prevent Acuña from ever being paid at a level anywhere near his true on-field value.

this isn't one of the ones that really gets me riled up... it's true that if acuna continues on this trajectory it will be a bargain for the braves but if he doesn't then it's a huge score for him. the exchanging of risk by both parties on this one seems pretty equal to me and at the end of the day the guy is getting $100 million (pre tax...)

obv the system that necessitates these deals in the first place needs to be overturned but there is always a rush to call these deals huge wins for the team but like... does anyone think gregory polanco is a huge steal on what is essentially the 3/24 left on the extension he signed in 2016? development timelines are wacky

i've seen that argument before and it feels like it's based on a concept of "value" that is just the player's potential positive impact over the course of the contract. but every one of these longer-term contracts is based on a market value that balances potential long-term positive impact with potential risk. the risk is factored into the value. and even with that risk factored in, acuna (and trout, and probably other players) are still being underpaid based on that value.

xpost

Obviously some of these contracts suck but in the greater national context of pay inequity it's very hard for me to get worked up about. We're talking about a little more than 600 employees whose average salary is $3.5 million (!)

Alll this indignation would be more productively aimed at perpetrators in the real world. The average salary for CEO at an S&P 500 firm is >350x that of the average laborer.

the players have a legit union w/ real leverage that will serve them again in time, which is more than can be said for almost all the rest of us

i am capable of being indignant about more than one thing

great facebook post though

you are special, most humans have finite resources of time and energy

xp thanks!

gregory polanco did not put up 4 war and win rookie of the year as a 20yo (and even 2 war/season, as polanco did last year, is more than enough to justify his contract).

it's hard to blame acuna -- he's a 21yo kid from venezuela who is now more than set for life. but i don't think the braves are taking on much risk at all. this might be an optimistic example, but mookie got $10m in his first year of arbitration and $20m in his second; acuna has locked himself into less than that for his entire prime. maybe the free agent system is irreparably broken and we don't know what 1 war is worth in an unopen market, but if we go by $8m-$9m, all the braves are risking is that acuna won't be worth 2 war per season throughout his 20s.

anyway, acuna's rich, braves ownership gets to keep more money, so it goes

Beetlejuice:
The in-unison chorus of “Acuna getting $100M is a ripoff” is a bit troubling to me. Why do so many media Acuna should immediately adopt their opinion because they “know better.” He’s trying to do what’s best for him and his family and everyone’s risk preference is different. (Even if it’s team friendly – the current landscape of media combativeness is no bueno)

Meg Rowley:
The deal is hilariously light for talented a player. I think we can recognize why an individual wants to be set for life while still bemoaning the incentives at work that inspired him to sign such a deal.

The media’s job isn’t to be conciliatory toward teams. Our job is to properly assess and analyze baseball news.

i have a side question but has anyone done any mathy articles describing why everyone places a "dollar value" on WAR as if it's geometric and not e.g. logarithmic? like why is a 9-WAR player worth 3 times a 3-WAR player? is it because there are so many players on a team + a multi-year deal means even more players over time?

also i'm not a math boss so idk if i am using geometric and logarithmic right. i don't even know if i'm spelling the last one right. i'm a fuckin mess

linear vs log is what you're looking for.

Wins are measured integrally, so it lends itself to the linear scale.

cubs extend ... david bote? through ... 2024?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D208mp_X0AAi8g4.jpg:small