Greater career - Mike Trout or Bryce Harper?

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mike-trout-has-been-as-good-as-manny-machado-and-bryce-harper-combined

I'm floored by the AAV, which is Jake Arrieta money. This almost seems like a deal designed to enable the #Phillies to sign a second prime free agent in two years.

— Joe Sheehan (@joe_sheehan) February 28, 2019

Curious how Bryce Harper's first seven seasons compare to Bobby Abreu's? Check the Play Index https://t.co/1SYvrZnKR5 pic.twitter.com/SiPbgY5CRM

— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) March 3, 2019

BA = #60 on the Mitchell Report.

lol abreu is my go-to example of WAR being a flawed metric

how so? i didn't really follow baseball during his entire career - i checked out in the mid 90s and came back in the early 2010s. but by his stats he looks really good, even by counting stats? 20-30 HRs, 30-40 steals, around .300 BA each year, really good plate discipline, high OBP?

he had a very nice run with the phillies, definitely in the hall of the very good but (yes subjectivity alert here) anyone following baseball at the time would not put him in the near-elite status his war would have you believe. tbf the bad back end of his career is maybe clouding my judgment a bit but walking a lot and striking out even more does not a great player make!

his career trajectory is interesting. there used to be a general idea of youth leading to a "prime" (age 25-30, give or take), then a slow decline to retirement. but in recent years that's kind of been revised to players generally being at their best in the first few years, then a slow decline all the way to retirement. but very few players actually follow that exact trajectory. bobby abreu does. he was at his very best in his first few years, then very good for years afterward, then good, then serviceable, then mediocre, then old and bad, in a very linear fashion. also very durable!

Bobby Abreu's career, in one character:

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Abreu wasn't elite, but you could easily make the argument that he was the most underrated player in baseball during his prime.

Harper isn't elite either, save for his one MVP year.

In an O Henry twist, it seemed that when people started to pay attention to Bobby Abreu being really good 5 Tool player is when his production seem to slide. This be at the peak when he won the home run derby and then went into a total power slump in the second half, that seemed to be when his power slid of in general.

The Craig Biggio dynamic: by the time everyone notices how good you are (in Biggio's case, predicated on his getting 3,000 hits), you're no longer good.

Earlnash otm, Abreu’s career seemingly can be split into his pre-derby 6.0 WAR-type minor star seasons and his post-derby “solid but now-overrated” era.

Harper will clearly be elite at the end of this season.

I would not be surprised that Harper might win a HR title or two playing in Philly, but 13 years is a long, long time. I could see Harper getting knicked up over and over, as it has happened already. I'd probably be looking to move him to 1b pretty quick and get him out of the outfield.

DH probably will be in the NL by the time the contract hits, so it is possible that could be a benefit to Philly at some point.

http://www.dirtsheet.com/los-angeles-angels-considering-10-year-350-extension-for-mike-trout/

You have to love "considering." They're also considering offering Pujols to the Red Sox for Mookie Betts--they just want to time it right.

Who is the worst outfielder Hoskins or Harper

someone find me a position player who had a better career than bobby abreu and also never made the top 10 in mvp voting (in his league) in any season

Was going to say Robin Ventura but he had one top 6 mvp vote in 1999.

Now back to my very important question.

i feel pretty confident that hoskins is worse

Ian Kinsler, arguably. Almost the same bWAR in five fewer seasons. Also would rank higher in a list of all-time second basemen whereas Abreu would be much farther down the list of outfielders.

good call

yeah, i had the realization a few months ago that ian kinsler is one of best second basemen since integration and yet he's seen as just a good, solid player. combo of his value coming from above average (but not elite) defense, speed, above average (but not elite) offense, and playing for the tigers, i guess

oh and Willie Randolph as well, basically managed to put up a stellar WAR over an 18 year career in which he never hit more than 7 home runs in a season (finishing with 54!) but he was a good baserunner, walked a lot, and was outstanding in the field.

Found one more with a slightly higher career WAR than Abreu, his value completely camouflaged by his era and his park: Willie Davis. (Four MVP finishes in the 15-30 range.)

did willie randolph even get any interviews after being fired by the mets? far less successful managers have gotten multiple chances, but he just seemed to drop off the face of the earth

Kinsler did very well to sign with the Padres.

One follow-up on Bobby Abreu, then Trout/Harper can have their thread back.

In the history of baseball, there are two players who have played in 150 games or more for 13 consecutive seasons:

Willie Mays
Bobby Abreu (Happy 45th Birthday)

Pete Rose, Cal Ripken Jr., and Rafael Palmeiro likely would have matched if streaks were not interrupted by strikes.

— Chris Bodig ⚾ (@cooperstowncred) March 11, 2019

I know that's one of those specious benchmarks with cherry-picked parameters (if you drop it to 145 games, Aaron hits 16 consecutive seasons), but who would ever come up with Abreu as one of the two?

more hot bobby abreu content

Bobby Abreu has been selected as the 2019 Toyota Phillies Wall of Fame inductee!

He will be inducted on Saturday, August 3, as part of Toyota Alumni Weekend. pic.twitter.com/TthmZAbIpf

— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) March 20, 2019

brb - have to go buy a Toyota

In the liner notes to one of the Pavement CD reissues, Stephen Malkamus references Bobby Abreyu's scream at the 2005 HR derby

I'm sure most of you are aware of this, but I'd be a little cautious about Harper's great start. April is far and away his best month historically: .310/.438/.627. No other month is even close.

MLB leaders in OPS as of this morning:

1. Harper - 1.479
2. Trout - 1.476

trout is having an insanely hot start

considering the lineup around him, i'm not sure why anyone ever throws him a strike

Trout's gonna benefit in the counting stats department by being paired with Pujols and Trumbo for the foreseeable future..
― johnathan lee riche$ (mayor jingleberries), Tuesday, July 10, 2012 2:01 PM (six years ago)

At the time, this seemed like a perfectly reasonable thing to say.

trumbo we believed in u

Just to jump the gun by several miles...If Trout were to win MVP unanimously this year, he'd move ahead of these players in MVP Award Shares: A-Rod, Gehrig, DiMaggio, Aaron, Mantle, Mays. (And MVP votes were easier to come by in a smaller league...DiMaggio did lose time to the war, and Gehrig's a separate thing because of an erratic MVP structure pre-1931.)

I'm sure most of you are aware of this, but I'd be a little cautious about Harper's great start. April is far and away his best month historically: .310/.438/.627. No other month is even close.

― clemenza, Tuesday, April 2, 2019 7:58 PM (two months ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

welp

Trout's 2019 OPS by monthly splits:

March/April - 1.052
May - 1.032
June - 1.236

Harper:

March/April - .878
May - .811
June - .718

Harper's K rate is noticeably higher, which i guess could be attributable to scuffling under early "new contract" pressure but he's on pace for 200+, which is maybe alarming for a guy who only twice before just barely exceeded averaging one K per game (and in some seasons was well below that).

most alarmed by the lack of power. the ball is juiced, he plays in a bandbox and he's three homers behind tommy la stella

the stats have his defense as considerably better than last year or the overall WAR might be embarrassing

wonder if his defense is better bc they've got him exclusively playing RF vs last season when Washington stuck him in center 1/3rd of the time.

Both these dudes reinforcing some opinions today

My golfing friend didn't play tonight because he's at the Jays game; Trout's hit two HR, one a grand slam.

Right now, Harper isn't even in the WAR team top 10 headshots on the 2019 Phillies Baseball Reference page.

That homer Trout hit the night before and that rookie hit were absolute bombs the night before in Toronto.

I still think it's funny that, for me--whether fair or not--the most devastating nickname ever was Steinbrenner playing off of Reggie and calling Winfield "Mr. May," and Harper comes along and basically lays claim to "Mr. April."

it appears that harper has started all but one of the phillies' 73 games (he was a pinch hitter in one game last week). which might not be the most productive use of a guy who's scuffling

Trout finished 3-6 tonight with the 2 HR and 7 RBI. in his worst season he won the MVP award.

mike trout is hitting .420 in 69 career at-bats with the bases loaded

this is not a joke

101 rbis in those 69 AB....