hot stove 2018-19

To be fair most teams who are further along in their development seem to be quite content with their shortstop situation.

lotsa douches have helped win pennants

Machado's deal is only $9M less than the $309M that the Padres spent on free agents in the past 25 offseasons combined.

don't almost all teams have billion dollar tv contracts now? now the padres have only $700M of their tv money left to spend over the next 10 years (or whatever, I'm making these numbers up but you get the idea)

There's that, and almost every team is at least tens of millions of dollars below the luxury tax threshold, so literally 20+ teams can't complain about having no chance with top tier free agents.

san diego is the eighth-largest city and 17th-largest metro area in the usa, it should hardly be considered a 'small market' anyway

they currently have the best/deepest set of prospects in the game

I don't keep up well with farm systems. If that's true, then the move makes a lot more sense.

their system is insane.

their rotation, as currently constructed, is pretty bad. i mean i love joey lucchesi but not as a no. 1 starter. but they could still afford keuchel or gio and they have the prospects to trade for kluber or whomever

(it would be total bullshit for the indians to trade kluber, but that doesn't mean they won't)

Yeah, if their infield is like Mejia-Hosmer-Urias-Tatis-Machado by 2020, and those three youngsters play as good as hoped, they could have an incredibly potent lineup (and afaik they're all considered at least defensively capable if not above average?). Urias was doing something like .300/.400/.500 at AAA? and mejia iirc broke the record for most games hitting streak in the minors, hit safely in something absurd like 60 games. and of course tatis is tatis, maybe the most hyped prospect not named Vlad or Eloy in 2019.

50 games, not 60, but still wild

Mejia-Hosmer-Urias-Tatis-Machado by 2020

glaring weakspot with hosmer, though. they really shit the bed with that one

he's only 29 and he already plays like late-period pujols every other year

still above-average defensively, which is something, plus virtually all 1Bs are bad right now somehow

wait no i think i am fucking him up with someone else... he is... bad defensively?

you'd be forgiven for thinking he was good defensively, because he somehow got gold gloves in 2013-15 and again in 2017.

hosmer's doing a latter-day brett saberhagen thing where he's only good in odd years, so they should be solid for '19 and '21

according to fangraphs, he was 10th worst defensive 1B in the American League in 2017, out of 12 qualifying players.

and if you expand it American League 1B from 2013-2017, the years during which he won 4 gold gloves, he was the very worst fielding first basemen out of 10 qualifying players.

the gold gloves are as predictive of merit as winning a grammy

one plus thing on the machado deal that i didn't think of - he'll most likely be at 3B once tatis jr comes up, which will increase his value

wouldn't moving his bat from ss decrease his value?

He’s better at 3B iirc?

I don't keep up well with farm systems. If that's true, then the move makes a lot more sense.

padres have the best system

https://cdn-blogs.fangraphs.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/prospects-fv-50-plus.png

Plenty of good 1b I shall not stand there and have the names of Votto and Goldschmidt insulted.

May work out well, but the thing with the Padres and 90% of all teams is that a move like that can't not work out. There's not much margin of error. The Yankees and Red Sox and Dodgers can make big, expensive mistakes and it's no big deal--they just throw more money around. Other teams can't.

that's true (although i think many of those teams *can* actually afford to make mistakes and are pretending otherwise)

but i think machado is probably about as sure a thing as is possible. he's really good, and at the end of his contract he'll be younger than robinson cano is right now

It's nuts. When he has the option to opt out in 5 years he will be Cano's age when he signed his mega-contract.

i think the padres could have afforded to make a mistake with machado, but not so much after making mistakes on hosmer and wil myers (although those were smaller mistakes). but if something goes wrong with machado, they're going to have a roster of really cheap star young players weighed down by three big long contracts. on the other hand, if machado performs as expected, hosmer is odd-year hosmer, and wil myers bounces back at all over the next few years, their lineup is going to be pretty scary

I assume that Harper will now sign somewhere for $310M, giving him and Boras the satisfaction of having won the off-season. But I'd prefer having Machado over Harper at that price, and it's not even close.

I would prefer Machado if I were a manager or perhaps even a GM. But as an owner or the marketing department it would be Harper all the way; and I think it counts.

Plenty of good 1b I shall not stand there and have the names of Votto and Goldschmidt insulted.

― Van Horn Street, Tuesday, February 19, 2019 7:55 PM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i said virtually! there used to be like 15 of em but now it's like... votto, goldschmidt, freddie... rizzo is ok but not as good as he was... olson? bellinger for like half the season?

far cry from when you had miggy, pujols, teixeira, cdavis, edwin, agonz, and a bunch of those above guys all crushing it (although who knows maybe i'm just conflating every year from the past 10 years)

bryce is gonna sign with the cubs. all the "we don't have any money!" stuff is a smokescreen

which team's helmet will bryce remove as he whips back his sweaty hair in slow motion??

let's go bucs

Asked why payroll went down, Nutting said, "We need to focus on the things we believe are controllable."

— Bill Brink (@BrinkPG) February 20, 2019

Asked "Is payroll not controllable?" Nutting said, "I think payroll scale and range, broadly, is not controllable. We’re going to have certain resources that we have, and I think that that’s the reality of a marketplace." https://t.co/Z9cKr85bM8

— Bill Brink (@BrinkPG) February 20, 2019

fuck

hello friends. I have made the exciting and absolutely petrifying decision to accept a job with the Rays, who don't need my help. until they come to realize that, I am finished writing about baseball in the public. you are all a treasure. you may also now unfollow me

— Jeff Sullivan (@based_ball) February 22, 2019

Yarg

everything that I enjoy in life is being sucked into a black box and replaced with an alternate that’s behind a paywall

I do like meg rowley tho (and suggested to Ben n Sam back when I still had a Twitter) that she become the full time spot-starter if either of them got sick or jury duty

damn lost cameron and sullivsn i'm devastated

is it official she's the new co-host?

Generally loved Sullivan on the podcast, but occasionally annoyed by his inability to pronounce names of pre-1985 players, while pronouncing the T in "often."

N I’m just making an assumption and haven’t listened to the new ep yet

nooooooo not sullivan

marwin to the twins (2/$21m)

ervin 'magic' santana to the white sox on a minor league deal

matt duchene to the columbus blue jackets

brink tweet includes the words "went down Nutting" and i'm laughing and oh no i am 12 years old

unexpected, but Cardinals extend Jose Martinez through 2020.

Jose Martinez signed a two-year deal that will keep him in St. Louis through the 2020 season, the team announced (via Twitter). The team will pay Martinez $3.25MM guaranteed, plus incentives, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter).

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/02/cardinals-extend-jose-martinez-through-2020.html

unexpected because he is an atrocious fielder, both at 1B and at RF, where he'll see most of his playing time this year. i just assumed that he would go to the american league as soon as a decent trade opportunity came up, potentially at the trading deadline this year.

i guess, actually, that the possibility of him being traded at the deadline is still a possibility, only now he's an even more attractive trade target for an AL team because he's dirt cheap through 2020 and is an incredible hitter. and also one of the most entertaining personalities in the game

harper/phillies is pretty much a thing, apparently. final details being ironed out, expected to be finalized by monday

The Segura/Realmuto/Hoskins/Harper part of the lineup is going to be pretty fun.

as a heavy NL watcher i must admit i'm glad that Machado went West and Harper is (likely) going East. this way i'll get to see them on occasion but not so often that they'll ruin all my precious cardinal games

switching to Team Harper Hate

BREAKING: Third baseman Nolan Arenado and the Colorado Rockies are finalizing an eight-year, contract extension worth more than $255M, league sources tell ESPN. Deal includes an opt-out after three years, would give Arenado the largest per-year salary of any position player.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 26, 2019

also! hanle y to the indians on a minor league deal

whoa damn