hot stove 2018-19

Is it just me or are Nola and Severino's deals almost comically team friendly? I really don't get it from a player perspective -- why sign a "long term" with a far below market value AAV that also buys out just one free agent year? The money AND the security are low.

because the system is broken, and they've at least locked in being set for life

Signing for 1Y/$10M would also be enough to set a lot of people up for life. If their arms fall off tomorrow then it's a good deal for the players. But the next worst case is ... maybe hitting free agency and having to settle for far less than the $100M deal you hoped for, like Arrieta did? And in that time they'd make close to the same total salary that they're making now, realistically.

The system is broken all right -- way worse than I thought.

Mark Reynolds, who just signed with the #Rockies a few days before camp, told a free-agent tale today I’ve heard a lot. Got no offers for weeks. Then was playing golf a couple of weeks ago, got a call from his agent and had 4 teams offering minor league deals on the same day.

— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) February 17, 2019

Owners would be that dumb to leave all the traces necessary for the existence collusion to be proven beyond reasonable doubt.

it seems pretty farfetched that teams would bother colluding on minor league deals for mark reynolds. but it's also strange

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26019145/third-baseman-mike-moustakas-returning-brewers

I forgot that Moustakas rejected the $17.4M qualifying offer two offseasons ago. Now he'll make less than $17M combined in 2018-2019.

Last offseason, rather.

they also picked up Brett Lawrie on a minor-league deal, which is surprising because I had no idea he was still playing - seems like a longshot given his mysterious quad injury and the fact that the dude can't hit breaking balls, but taking fliers on dudes like this is what Milwaukee does now. sad to think he was Milwaukee's blue-chip prospect once upon a time.

what's surprising to me is that Lawrie was better than i remembered, he put up a 15.1 bWAR in what amounted to a little more than 3 1/2 full seasons (588 games played over 6 years).

MACHADO to PADRES

LET'S GOOOOO

hope he's better than kemp was

10 years, $300m, no word on opt-outs

huh!

was still holding out a shred of hope he'd sign with the white sox but this is still more interesting than him going to philly

this is stupid

opt-out after the fifth season

i expect harper will sign relatively soon too, then, now that machado has a value

Congrats to the soon to be 71-91 Padres.

Franny Machado, 3B
Franchy Cordero, CF
Franmil Reyes, LF

great time to be a fran

i for one applaud the padres for this giant contract, let's get these players paid

idk if they'll be any good (they prob still won't lol) and it's never fun to watch a decent hitter go to petco but i appreciate their paying the guy what he deserves unlike these other vampires

https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/603331836/twitterProfilePhoto.jpg

Machado's a great player, possibly historically great--with some obvious baggage re his temperament--but have the Padres ever been a really successful, financially sound organization? I know they made a couple of WS (in years when there were better NL teams). They've basically tied their hands for the foreseeable future, and they're not particularly close at the moment. And if they don't win soon, Machado will start complaining.

typical Padres

we see you Cameron

padres are in an interesting situation as the only (i believe) MLB team without direct NFL/NBA/NHL competition. they currently have the best/deepest set of prospects in the game. machado's contract takes their payroll from something like $70m to something like $100m, which won't crack the top 20 and is less than half of the top spenders.

i wouldn't call signing one of the top 10 players in the game 'tying their hands' but rather making an aggressive move at the right time. one that teams like the pirates and white sox never seem to have the stomach for.

Cubs weren't successful until they were. Obviously, the Padres believe that right now the core of young players is good enough to patch holes with free agents and thinking about seriously competing in 2020. World series appearances in decades past are no indication of anything at all.

xxxpost to Clem

if machado cared about winning soon, he would've signed with a team further along in their development, so i don't think he's going to complain about that

i could be wrong – but he doesn't seem like the type to let silly facts like that stop him from being a douche.

To be fair most teams who are further along in their development seem to be quite content with their shortstop situation.

lotsa douches have helped win pennants

Machado's deal is only $9M less than the $309M that the Padres spent on free agents in the past 25 offseasons combined.

don't almost all teams have billion dollar tv contracts now? now the padres have only $700M of their tv money left to spend over the next 10 years (or whatever, I'm making these numbers up but you get the idea)

There's that, and almost every team is at least tens of millions of dollars below the luxury tax threshold, so literally 20+ teams can't complain about having no chance with top tier free agents.

san diego is the eighth-largest city and 17th-largest metro area in the usa, it should hardly be considered a 'small market' anyway

they currently have the best/deepest set of prospects in the game

I don't keep up well with farm systems. If that's true, then the move makes a lot more sense.

their system is insane.

their rotation, as currently constructed, is pretty bad. i mean i love joey lucchesi but not as a no. 1 starter. but they could still afford keuchel or gio and they have the prospects to trade for kluber or whomever

(it would be total bullshit for the indians to trade kluber, but that doesn't mean they won't)

Yeah, if their infield is like Mejia-Hosmer-Urias-Tatis-Machado by 2020, and those three youngsters play as good as hoped, they could have an incredibly potent lineup (and afaik they're all considered at least defensively capable if not above average?). Urias was doing something like .300/.400/.500 at AAA? and mejia iirc broke the record for most games hitting streak in the minors, hit safely in something absurd like 60 games. and of course tatis is tatis, maybe the most hyped prospect not named Vlad or Eloy in 2019.

50 games, not 60, but still wild

Mejia-Hosmer-Urias-Tatis-Machado by 2020

glaring weakspot with hosmer, though. they really shit the bed with that one

he's only 29 and he already plays like late-period pujols every other year

still above-average defensively, which is something, plus virtually all 1Bs are bad right now somehow

wait no i think i am fucking him up with someone else... he is... bad defensively?

you'd be forgiven for thinking he was good defensively, because he somehow got gold gloves in 2013-15 and again in 2017.

hosmer's doing a latter-day brett saberhagen thing where he's only good in odd years, so they should be solid for '19 and '21

according to fangraphs, he was 10th worst defensive 1B in the American League in 2017, out of 12 qualifying players.

and if you expand it American League 1B from 2013-2017, the years during which he won 4 gold gloves, he was the very worst fielding first basemen out of 10 qualifying players.

the gold gloves are as predictive of merit as winning a grammy

one plus thing on the machado deal that i didn't think of - he'll most likely be at 3B once tatis jr comes up, which will increase his value

wouldn't moving his bat from ss decrease his value?

He’s better at 3B iirc?