xxxp: PECOTA is infamously inaccurate (one of the primary reasons why there are so many other more accurate models these days).
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Thursday, 7 February 2019 18:17 (ten months ago) link
i don't know much about the track record of success for pre-season projections (seems like an impossible task, since injuries and mid-season trades are a thing). but at least on the brewers, i'd lean toward PECOTA more than fangraphs
― Karl Malone, Thursday, 7 February 2019 18:19 (ten months ago) link
i predict that each team in the NL central will win 86 games
just curious, are the brewers going after dallas keuchel at all? their only weakness is starting pitching imo, seems like it would make a lot of sense? is it just money, i guess? i know the brewers are a small market team but am i wrong in thinking that pretty much any team in baseball, in the era of billion dollar tv deals, can afford keuchel?
― Karl Malone, Saturday, 9 February 2019 16:31 (ten months ago) link
is it his beard? it's probably his beard
― Karl Malone, Saturday, 9 February 2019 16:32 (ten months ago) link
he's had a couple majestic seasons and quite a few very average seasons, he's 31, his strikeouts are down, etc.
so i can see him thinking 'i am a cy young winner' and other teams thinking 'not anymore, really' and there being a gap in perceived value. but yeah, any team *could* afford him
― mookieproof, Saturday, 9 February 2019 19:37 (ten months ago) link
still projected for ~ 3.5 WAR for next year, though, which would make him the ace of the brewers and bump a mediocre SP out of the rotation. i'm just surprised they haven't jumped on it
― Karl Malone, Saturday, 9 February 2019 19:49 (ten months ago) link
3.5 WAR would be better than their first three starters combined.
In any case he is represented by Boras so we will be lucky if he signs anywhere before Opening Day.
― Van Horn Street, Saturday, 9 February 2019 20:37 (ten months ago) link
Makes You Think
Cubs manager Joe Maddon says “Own It Now” is his mantra for this season. Taking ownership. Owning the moment. And, “now” backwards is “won”. pic.twitter.com/vWl50DcLuC— Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) February 12, 2019
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 12 February 2019 20:46 (ten months ago) link
If Keuchel wants a multi-year deal I can see why the Brewers would be gun-shy. they have a long history of signing 31-year old SPs to 3/4-year deals and watching them become totally worthless halfway through year 2 (or from the very first start in the case of Jeff Suppan)
honestly have no clue what they're planning - the big questions for Milwaukee are 1) do you expect Jimmy Nelson to be healthy and effective and 2) is Corbin Burnes gonna be a serviceable starter. if both those things are 'yes' then I don't think they necessarily need another SP (at least, not at the price they'd likely have to pay)
― frogbs, Tuesday, 12 February 2019 20:55 (ten months ago) link
of course he wants a multi-year deal
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 12 February 2019 22:25 (ten months ago) link
i don't actually believe the cubs will finish last -- they do, after all, Own the Now -- but lol anyway
updated PECOTA has Cubs last in the NL Central. 😬 https://t.co/KBxbepFrm2— Rob Arthur (@No_Little_Plans) February 13, 2019
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 13 February 2019 19:49 (nine months ago) link
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 13 February 2019 20:16 (nine months ago) link
not a lot of margin of difference/error between those bottom three teams
― na (NA), Wednesday, 13 February 2019 20:17 (nine months ago) link
it's weird they have the cubs defense rated so low compared to the pirates. i don't know much about the pirates defense but i thought the cubs defense was pretty good, except for when schwarber is in the game
― na (NA), Wednesday, 13 February 2019 20:19 (nine months ago) link
that seems to be the reason for the cubs being in last considering they're predicted to be better at the pirates at everything else
― na (NA), Wednesday, 13 February 2019 20:21 (nine months ago) link
neither the pirates nor the cubs seem to have done much of anything this winter, but the cubs will have a full season of hamels and possibly some darvish. no idea why this somehow closes last year's 12-game gap between them
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 13 February 2019 20:49 (nine months ago) link
On lower left corner of Cubs workout schedule: pic.twitter.com/oOJfhKyo0q— Mark Gonzales (@MDGonzales) February 18, 2019
― mookieproof, Monday, 18 February 2019 17:29 (nine months ago) link
this quote about Matheny really takes me back:
In the Mike Matheny days, bullpen crunches were...well, bullpen crunches seemed to be about a twice a week problem, which was amazing given that Matheny somehow managed to leave starters in too long far too often, use his ‘pen in such a way there were never enough arms, and also lean so heavily on certain players as to burn them out midway through a season. It would seem, in any rational world, that doing two of those things would mean the third would be almost impossible, yet Matheny managed the trifecta of bullpen disasters pretty regularly. I suppose it takes a man of great faith to produce miracles.
― Karl Malone, Tuesday, 19 February 2019 00:10 (nine months ago) link
watching the first Cardinals ST game and the announcers, and they've spent every single one of the 15 minutes i've watched complaining about how baseball is all strikeouts and HRs and how baseball sucks and "they're analyzing the analytics now, and they're finding that there is too much shifting" and they don't run enough anymore and back during the days of Whiteyball there was more hit and run and baseball sucks
i seriously can't take this shit again this year. guess i'm just going to start off with my late 2018 season approach of starting the game with the opposing team's broadcast, and then switching to "stadium/atmospheric noise/ambient" mode if i can't stand them either.
i am jealous of teams that have broadcasters who aren't annoying buffoons
― Karl Malone, Saturday, 23 February 2019 19:15 (nine months ago) link
Woah - how does one get just stadium noise?!
― Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Sunday, 24 February 2019 00:34 (nine months ago) link
it's an option on mlb.tv, maybe just during regular season games. in certain situations, it is amazing how much better it is
― Karl Malone, Sunday, 24 February 2019 00:37 (nine months ago) link
Park sound wasn't available on their Apple TV app last year iirc, but it is now, hallelujah.
― ILX Moderator: It's Like a Pressure Wash for Your Insides (WmC), Sunday, 24 February 2019 00:43 (nine months ago) link
this is kind of a ridiculous idea, but i always wonder about what would happen if teams made their broadcasters open source - they could provide the video feed and some basic stats to everyone for free and allow them to do play-by-play over the top. in my head i have this idea that the next vin scully is sitting out there on their couch somewhere, just needing a chance. but in reality it would probably end up like Twitch where the most popular broadcasters are increeeeeedibly annoying and it's depressing to consider that most people actually like it
― Karl Malone, Sunday, 24 February 2019 00:46 (nine months ago) link
but for now, i will just be happy that park noise is there as an option, as it is so often better than the professional human options that are available
― Karl Malone, Sunday, 24 February 2019 00:47 (nine months ago) link
I’ve honestly wondered the same about open source broadcasting.
― Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Sunday, 24 February 2019 01:11 (nine months ago) link
I might do the silent broadcast for the Blue Jays. Martinez is awful.
― Van Horn Street, Monday, 25 February 2019 01:58 (nine months ago) link
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 27 February 2019 22:15 (nine months ago) link
alex reyes . . . lives
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 5 March 2019 20:36 (nine months ago) link
he just needs to live to to retire one more batter before he's no longer a rookie (exactly 50 innings in his career so far)
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 6 March 2019 03:06 (nine months ago) link
here are some assholes i hate
aroldis chapmanjosh hader craig timbrelmanny machadojose reyesjung-ho kangmanny machadoaddison russell
― but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Friday, 8 March 2019 05:37 (nine months ago) link
in no order
― but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Friday, 8 March 2019 05:38 (nine months ago) link
double machado is vicious
― mookieproof, Friday, 8 March 2019 06:00 (nine months ago) link
one for the lame ankle kick as he was crossing first one for refusing to apologize
― but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Friday, 8 March 2019 06:16 (nine months ago) link
carlos martinez has already gone down an injury, "received a platelet-rich plasma injection", and seems likely to be a reliever again this year. it kinda makes me sad because he's one of my favorite players. but actually, he's kind of electric as a reliever. and if hicks' arm avoids exploding, miller is even half of what he used to be, and leone is still pretty good, that would be a pretty excellent bullpen.
― but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Sunday, 10 March 2019 05:21 (nine months ago) link
fp'd you for not asking how hot dominic leone is in person
get yr shit together karl malone
― mookieproof, Sunday, 10 March 2019 06:00 (nine months ago) link
i saw that earlier today and fp'd myself for the same reason. but really i should have done that last year. i have no idea how that didn't occur to me
― but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Sunday, 10 March 2019 06:03 (nine months ago) link
I am sincerely enjoying the wide array of opinions about whether Javier Baez can sustain his 2018 performance or not.
― na (NA), Friday, 15 March 2019 19:10 (eight months ago) link
do we need an NL CENTRAL PREDICTATRON 2019 thread at least? or just keep going in this one
― na (NA), Friday, 15 March 2019 19:13 (eight months ago) link
― Van Horn Street, Sunday, February 24, 2019 5:58 PM (two weeks ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
I like Buck. Not his insight but mainly his old timey California accent
― ( ͡☉ ͜ʖ ͡☉) (jim in vancouver), Friday, 15 March 2019 19:20 (eight months ago) link
i favor restoring team threads; this concept is too 'cute'
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 15 March 2019 19:27 (eight months ago) link
Stay in yr own division!! ;)I like having one divisional thread because the cardinals thread is mainly just me and it gets lonely
― but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Friday, 15 March 2019 19:36 (eight months ago) link
yeah i don't know that we really have enough posters to sustain individual team threads. in any case, i'm going to start a predictatron thread just bc it's fun to try and guess who's going to win.
― na (NA), Friday, 15 March 2019 19:40 (eight months ago) link
oh shit, i didn't notice the new thread til now! (i am hopelessly reliant on bookmarks). for other pitiable souls:
NL CENTRAL PREDICTATRON 2019
― but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 20 March 2019 02:38 (eight months ago) link