NL CENTRAL PREDICTATRON

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i predictatron that the st louis cardinals will be the 2019 world champions of the united states of america and canada
the brewers will lose 80, the cubs will easily take a wild card spot. pirates and reds, hangin in there
yeah i said it, let's do this

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 23 January 2019 00:16 (six months ago) link

I think ILB might consider just doing one big NL Central thread this season, since it 'seems' be the most popular division on the site as we got fans of all the clubs on the board.

i'd be into that. we could just use this thread, too

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 23 January 2019 00:18 (six months ago) link

if you use this thread you have to let us talk about the astros too they're grandfathered in

ciderpress, Wednesday, 23 January 2019 00:33 (six months ago) link

Need to just move the Giants, Mets and Blue Jays to the ILB Central.

I'm guessing Yanks, but who was the Brewers division rival in the AL East days?

earlnash, Wednesday, 23 January 2019 00:41 (six months ago) link

if the projections have first and last separated by eight games, just imagine what one of those teams might accomplish with a bryce harper or manny machado

makes u think

mookieproof, Wednesday, 23 January 2019 04:01 (six months ago) link

They never really had a division rival, partly because they were rarely good enough to be rivaling anyone, but mostly because those divisional alignments made no sense, with the Midwestern teams divided randomly between the two divisions. They had no natural geographical rivals with St Louis, Chicago, Kansas City, and even Minnesota all in other divisions.

The AL East wasn't strong in rivalries for the most part. During the seventies the Orioles crushed the division most years, so there wasn't much competition going on. Yanks-Sox went into deep freeze from '78 on, since they were never really good at the same time. Detroit and Toronto had a great rivalry in the mid-80's, otherwise it was a fairly dry division for a long time.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Wednesday, 23 January 2019 06:06 (six months ago) link

I think ILB might consider just doing one big NL Central thread this season, since it 'seems' be the most popular division on the site as we got fans of all the clubs on the board.

i'd be into that. we could just use this thread, too

is anyone else into this idea? i like it because it saves me from bookmarking/following the 4 other NL central threads, and also because the cardinals thread is usually just me talking to myself and making tony larussa jokes

Karl Malone, Sunday, 3 February 2019 23:13 (five months ago) link

I'm game. Reds should have some neat stuff coming up this season as it is the club's 150th anniversary. So expect quite a few instances of retro jerseys and the usual bobblehead action from Cincy.

earlnash, Monday, 4 February 2019 01:05 (five months ago) link

I think consolidation is a good idea in general on ilx in 2019

na (NA), Monday, 4 February 2019 01:10 (five months ago) link

i wasn't planning to make a pirates thread because fuck them and their cheap bullshit

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/piker-pirates-its-time-for-pittsburgh-to-shake-off-its-reputation-as-one-of-the-thriftiest-teams-in-baseball

mookieproof, Monday, 4 February 2019 01:26 (five months ago) link

Contraction down to six divisional threads plus a general reg-season thread would be an interesting experiment.

One Thing All ILXors Have In Common, Brace Yourself (WmC), Monday, 4 February 2019 02:16 (five months ago) link

Here’s a crazy idea: what about just one thread

Karl Malone, Monday, 4 February 2019 02:36 (five months ago) link

Theoretically, everyone would just post to it. And be ok with reading things that weren’t immediately about their favorite team. They’d be flexible and wouldn’t be bothered, and the thread would be busy. At least two major arguments would occur. It would be great for everyone #onethread #ilbnation

Karl Malone, Monday, 4 February 2019 02:38 (five months ago) link

To fule them all

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 4 February 2019 02:38 (five months ago) link

Even if no one agrees I might just go rogue and spam the regular season thread with cardinals news

Karl Malone, Monday, 4 February 2019 02:39 (five months ago) link

no sorry I insist on year-specific threads not only for every team but every topic

respect my authority

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Monday, 4 February 2019 04:16 (five months ago) link

What about separate threads for every hall of fame election? + an extra thread for era-specific elections?

Karl Malone, Monday, 4 February 2019 04:24 (five months ago) link

blow up the HOF before Harold Baines makes a speech

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Monday, 4 February 2019 04:44 (five months ago) link

rip cubs

PECOTA projections were released today by @baseballpro. It has the Nationals and the Mets (!) tied atop the NL East at 89 wins. pic.twitter.com/5ARMA0pRv2

— Jamal Collier (@JamalCollier) February 7, 2019

mookieproof, Thursday, 7 February 2019 16:09 (five months ago) link

why are these so far off from the FG predictions

frogbs, Thursday, 7 February 2019 16:15 (five months ago) link

that's a good question. fangraphs projects last place for the brewers (79-83), PECOTA projects first place (89-73). fangraphs has them scoring 4.46 runs and giving up 4.58 runs a game. PECOTA has them scoring 4.56 runs and giving up 4.07 per game. so i guess PECOTA is way more bullish on their pitching? haven't looked at all the others yet

Karl Malone, Thursday, 7 February 2019 17:03 (five months ago) link

you can't predict baseball, suzyn

mookieproof, Thursday, 7 February 2019 17:08 (five months ago) link

i project that the cardinals will win between 72 and 112 games this year - where they fall, exactly, will depend on performance and luck

Karl Malone, Thursday, 7 February 2019 17:32 (five months ago) link

*nods sagely*

Karl Malone, Thursday, 7 February 2019 17:33 (five months ago) link

lol, that gave me the idea for a fantasy baseball team name except I don't play anymore — Long Live Giambi

ILX Moderator: It's Like a Pressure Wash for Your Insides (WmC), Thursday, 7 February 2019 17:39 (five months ago) link

(I'm sure someone else thought of it first.)

ILX Moderator: It's Like a Pressure Wash for Your Insides (WmC), Thursday, 7 February 2019 17:40 (five months ago) link

nope. now you must come back.

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 7 February 2019 17:57 (five months ago) link

I can't do it! Every day I didn't get max points out of my roster I was furious at myself. Had to give it up just for sanity's sake.

ILX Moderator: It's Like a Pressure Wash for Your Insides (WmC), Thursday, 7 February 2019 18:03 (five months ago) link

xxxp: PECOTA is infamously inaccurate (one of the primary reasons why there are so many other more accurate models these days).

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Thursday, 7 February 2019 18:17 (five months ago) link

i don't know much about the track record of success for pre-season projections (seems like an impossible task, since injuries and mid-season trades are a thing). but at least on the brewers, i'd lean toward PECOTA more than fangraphs

Karl Malone, Thursday, 7 February 2019 18:19 (five months ago) link

i predict that each team in the NL central will win 86 games

Karl Malone, Thursday, 7 February 2019 18:19 (five months ago) link

just curious, are the brewers going after dallas keuchel at all? their only weakness is starting pitching imo, seems like it would make a lot of sense? is it just money, i guess? i know the brewers are a small market team but am i wrong in thinking that pretty much any team in baseball, in the era of billion dollar tv deals, can afford keuchel?

Karl Malone, Saturday, 9 February 2019 16:31 (five months ago) link

is it his beard? it's probably his beard

Karl Malone, Saturday, 9 February 2019 16:32 (five months ago) link

he's had a couple majestic seasons and quite a few very average seasons, he's 31, his strikeouts are down, etc.

so i can see him thinking 'i am a cy young winner' and other teams thinking 'not anymore, really' and there being a gap in perceived value. but yeah, any team *could* afford him

mookieproof, Saturday, 9 February 2019 19:37 (five months ago) link

still projected for ~ 3.5 WAR for next year, though, which would make him the ace of the brewers and bump a mediocre SP out of the rotation. i'm just surprised they haven't jumped on it

Karl Malone, Saturday, 9 February 2019 19:49 (five months ago) link

3.5 WAR would be better than their first three starters combined.

In any case he is represented by Boras so we will be lucky if he signs anywhere before Opening Day.

Van Horn Street, Saturday, 9 February 2019 20:37 (five months ago) link

Makes You Think

Cubs manager Joe Maddon says “Own It Now” is his mantra for this season. Taking ownership. Owning the moment. And, “now” backwards is “won”. pic.twitter.com/vWl50DcLuC

— Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) February 12, 2019

mookieproof, Tuesday, 12 February 2019 20:46 (five months ago) link

If Keuchel wants a multi-year deal I can see why the Brewers would be gun-shy. they have a long history of signing 31-year old SPs to 3/4-year deals and watching them become totally worthless halfway through year 2 (or from the very first start in the case of Jeff Suppan)

honestly have no clue what they're planning - the big questions for Milwaukee are 1) do you expect Jimmy Nelson to be healthy and effective and 2) is Corbin Burnes gonna be a serviceable starter. if both those things are 'yes' then I don't think they necessarily need another SP (at least, not at the price they'd likely have to pay)

frogbs, Tuesday, 12 February 2019 20:55 (five months ago) link

of course he wants a multi-year deal

mookieproof, Tuesday, 12 February 2019 22:25 (five months ago) link

i don't actually believe the cubs will finish last -- they do, after all, Own the Now -- but lol anyway

updated PECOTA has Cubs last in the NL Central. 😬 https://t.co/KBxbepFrm2

— Rob Arthur (@No_Little_Plans) February 13, 2019

mookieproof, Wednesday, 13 February 2019 19:49 (five months ago) link

😬

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 13 February 2019 20:16 (five months ago) link

not a lot of margin of difference/error between those bottom three teams

na (NA), Wednesday, 13 February 2019 20:17 (five months ago) link

it's weird they have the cubs defense rated so low compared to the pirates. i don't know much about the pirates defense but i thought the cubs defense was pretty good, except for when schwarber is in the game

na (NA), Wednesday, 13 February 2019 20:19 (five months ago) link

that seems to be the reason for the cubs being in last considering they're predicted to be better at the pirates at everything else

na (NA), Wednesday, 13 February 2019 20:21 (five months ago) link

neither the pirates nor the cubs seem to have done much of anything this winter, but the cubs will have a full season of hamels and possibly some darvish. no idea why this somehow closes last year's 12-game gap between them

mookieproof, Wednesday, 13 February 2019 20:49 (five months ago) link

On lower left corner of Cubs workout schedule: pic.twitter.com/oOJfhKyo0q

— Mark Gonzales (@MDGonzales) February 18, 2019

mookieproof, Monday, 18 February 2019 17:29 (five months ago) link

this quote about Matheny really takes me back:


In the Mike Matheny days, bullpen crunches were...well, bullpen crunches seemed to be about a twice a week problem, which was amazing given that Matheny somehow managed to leave starters in too long far too often, use his ‘pen in such a way there were never enough arms, and also lean so heavily on certain players as to burn them out midway through a season. It would seem, in any rational world, that doing two of those things would mean the third would be almost impossible, yet Matheny managed the trifecta of bullpen disasters pretty regularly. I suppose it takes a man of great faith to produce miracles.

Karl Malone, Tuesday, 19 February 2019 00:10 (five months ago) link

watching the first Cardinals ST game and the announcers, and they've spent every single one of the 15 minutes i've watched complaining about how baseball is all strikeouts and HRs and how baseball sucks and "they're analyzing the analytics now, and they're finding that there is too much shifting" and they don't run enough anymore and back during the days of Whiteyball there was more hit and run and baseball sucks

i seriously can't take this shit again this year. guess i'm just going to start off with my late 2018 season approach of starting the game with the opposing team's broadcast, and then switching to "stadium/atmospheric noise/ambient" mode if i can't stand them either.

i am jealous of teams that have broadcasters who aren't annoying buffoons

Karl Malone, Saturday, 23 February 2019 19:15 (five months ago) link

Woah - how does one get just stadium noise?!

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Sunday, 24 February 2019 00:34 (five months ago) link

it's an option on mlb.tv, maybe just during regular season games. in certain situations, it is amazing how much better it is

Karl Malone, Sunday, 24 February 2019 00:37 (five months ago) link

Park sound wasn't available on their Apple TV app last year iirc, but it is now, hallelujah.

ILX Moderator: It's Like a Pressure Wash for Your Insides (WmC), Sunday, 24 February 2019 00:43 (five months ago) link

this is kind of a ridiculous idea, but i always wonder about what would happen if teams made their broadcasters open source - they could provide the video feed and some basic stats to everyone for free and allow them to do play-by-play over the top. in my head i have this idea that the next vin scully is sitting out there on their couch somewhere, just needing a chance. but in reality it would probably end up like Twitch where the most popular broadcasters are increeeeeedibly annoying and it's depressing to consider that most people actually like it

Karl Malone, Sunday, 24 February 2019 00:46 (five months ago) link

but for now, i will just be happy that park noise is there as an option, as it is so often better than the professional human options that are available

Karl Malone, Sunday, 24 February 2019 00:47 (five months ago) link

I’ve honestly wondered the same about open source broadcasting.

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Sunday, 24 February 2019 01:11 (five months ago) link

I might do the silent broadcast for the Blue Jays. Martinez is awful.

Van Horn Street, Monday, 25 February 2019 01:58 (four months ago) link

alex reyes . . . lives

mookieproof, Tuesday, 5 March 2019 20:36 (four months ago) link

he just needs to live to to retire one more batter before he's no longer a rookie (exactly 50 innings in his career so far)

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 6 March 2019 03:06 (four months ago) link

here are some assholes i hate

aroldis chapman
josh hader
craig timbrel
manny machado
jose reyes
jung-ho kang
manny machado
addison russell

but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Friday, 8 March 2019 05:37 (four months ago) link

in no order

but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Friday, 8 March 2019 05:38 (four months ago) link

double machado is vicious

mookieproof, Friday, 8 March 2019 06:00 (four months ago) link

one for the lame ankle kick as he was crossing first
one for refusing to apologize

but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Friday, 8 March 2019 06:16 (four months ago) link

carlos martinez has already gone down an injury, "received a platelet-rich plasma injection", and seems likely to be a reliever again this year. it kinda makes me sad because he's one of my favorite players. but actually, he's kind of electric as a reliever. and if hicks' arm avoids exploding, miller is even half of what he used to be, and leone is still pretty good, that would be a pretty excellent bullpen.

but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Sunday, 10 March 2019 05:21 (four months ago) link

fp'd you for not asking how hot dominic leone is in person

get yr shit together karl malone

mookieproof, Sunday, 10 March 2019 06:00 (four months ago) link

i saw that earlier today and fp'd myself for the same reason. but really i should have done that last year. i have no idea how that didn't occur to me

but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Sunday, 10 March 2019 06:03 (four months ago) link

I am sincerely enjoying the wide array of opinions about whether Javier Baez can sustain his 2018 performance or not.

na (NA), Friday, 15 March 2019 19:10 (four months ago) link

do we need an NL CENTRAL PREDICTATRON 2019 thread at least? or just keep going in this one

na (NA), Friday, 15 March 2019 19:13 (four months ago) link

I might do the silent broadcast for the Blue Jays. Martinez is awful.

― Van Horn Street, Sunday, February 24, 2019 5:58 PM (two weeks ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I like Buck. Not his insight but mainly his old timey California accent

( ͡☉ ͜ʖ ͡☉) (jim in vancouver), Friday, 15 March 2019 19:20 (four months ago) link

i favor restoring team threads; this concept is too 'cute'

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 15 March 2019 19:27 (four months ago) link

Stay in yr own division!! ;)

I like having one divisional thread because the cardinals thread is mainly just me and it gets lonely

but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Friday, 15 March 2019 19:36 (four months ago) link

yeah i don't know that we really have enough posters to sustain individual team threads. in any case, i'm going to start a predictatron thread just bc it's fun to try and guess who's going to win.

na (NA), Friday, 15 March 2019 19:40 (four months ago) link

oh shit, i didn't notice the new thread til now! (i am hopelessly reliant on bookmarks). for other pitiable souls:

NL CENTRAL PREDICTATRON 2019

but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 20 March 2019 02:38 (four months ago) link


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