hall of fame, next vote...

They're at 79 ballots/~20%, and Schilling, Bonds, and Clemens are all hovering around 75%.

please god

I’m not holding my breath on those guys, Bonds and Clemens have picked up exactly one vote apiece. I suspect lots of voters have drawn the line there or are waiting for them to reach their 10th and final year before casting the vote. Schilling has picked up 4, which is well off the enshrinement pace.

The guy who has picked up the most votes this year overall is McGriff with 16 (too little, too late!) and is tied w/Walker in terms of net gain at 14 votes (McGriff lost two, Walker hasn’t lost any.) I’m willing to bet the vets put McGriff in at some point.

Halladay appears to be a lock right now. Edgar too, obv. Mussina looks good for a close finish in his favor. Walker is a no, but I’m a bit more optimistic about him next season than I would have been before seeing his gains.

Only one? Surprised--I don't remember them ever approaching 75%, even early on; they always seemed to be stuck in the 50-60% range.

It won't happen (and would be quite meaningless if it did, at least in terms of the player's value; the why of it would be interesting to ponder, though...), but Rivera's still at 100%.

it might just be a matter of the historically more Barry and Rog-friendly voters getting their ballots out there earlier.

here's a spicy take (there's a twist ending though!)

https://www.telegram.com/news/20181222/bill-ballou-mariano-rivera-not-getting-this-writers-hall-of-fame-vote

I'm surprised he didn't mention Torre's use of Rivera in the playoffs and all his 1+ inning saves -- in many ways the forerunner of today's bullpen usage (at least in the playoffs).

For the most part he's right, and I respect what he's doing, but Rivera was a great pitcher, period. His career WAR is close to Halladay's.

For the most part he's right

By this I mean that he's right about saves most likely being on their way out as a statistic.

Sending in a blank ballot, though? You can read that two ways: as honorable (he doesn't want to be the guy who costs Rivera unanimity--and I don't know why he's concerned about that, it won't happen with or without him) or as cowardly (he doesn't want to be identified as the guy who costs Rivera unanimity--and ditto).

if you send in a blank ballot, doesn't that mean your vote counts and rivera won't be unanimous?

to clarify he decided not to submit a ballot at all, and k3v is right about a blank ballot submission.

i think his overall point with closers is pretty sound, except he can't differentiate between Rivera and everyone else. Rivera did what he did for so long, with that ridiculous postseason resume stretching out to 141 IP.

last season Kimbrel showed signs during the regular season of being on the decline and his postseason was so, so bad.

To me, you submit your ballot, and if anyone gives you grief over Rivera, you simply explain your reasoning. Whether you agree or disagree, it's not like he hasn't given the issue a lot of careful thought, or that his arguments are unreasonable. Why not reward the players you do support?

he should have just submitted the ballot without explanation (voting for those he felt deserved it) and if called out, offer up his opinion. this is just empty posturing.

i would vote for Mariano but the anti-closer argument is super viable (and imo is viable in virtually every other case).

at present, just the dudes who are tracking well. after 112 ballots (28.2%)

+ is the number of votes gained from returning voters, - is the number of votes they missed by last year

Mariano Rivera - 100.0%
Roy Halladay - 94.8%
Edgar Martinez - 91.4% (+10/-20)
Mike Mussina - 83.6% (+11/-49)
Roger Clemens - 73.3% (+1/-75)
Barry Bonds - 72.4% (+1/-79)
Curt Schilling - 72.4% (+7/-101)
Larry Walker - 67.2% (+20/-173)

Rolen is at 19.8% but he's gained 8 votes. I kinda feel like he'll pick up a lot of momentum during the down years between Jeter and Beltre/Suzuki. Same will likely go for Vizquel, for better or for worse; he's picked up a dozen votes and is at 37.8%.

I'm surprised (but pleased) with how well Halladay is doing, considering how tough it's been for Mussina and so many other non-Pedro, non-300 game winners to get HOF votes.

Halladay/Mussina are a pretty classic peak/career pairing; peak to Halladay, career to Mussina. I don't have any evidence on hand, but my sense is that current HOF voters place a higher value on peak--plus Halladay has the Cy Youngs, the no-hitters, and--maybe--some sentiment on his side. In any event, looks like they'll be voted in together, which seems fitting in terms of how...solid and unflashy they were?

I figured Halladay would make it, but even w/the extenuating circumstances i'm happy to see him at around 95%.

the best outcome would obv be the enshrinement of all four guys who are currently tracking to make it. i think once a narrative starts to build it's hard to resist, which is why i think even w/the Edgar narrative driving his vote towards an easy 75%+, Mussina will probably make it too. Which is *also* why I'm bullish on Larry next season.

my mental benchmarks have been poisoned by our new era of strikeouts -- was taken aback to see that halladay fanned fewer than 7 per 9IP over his career

I scrolled through this quickly--it's really long. I like the basic concept, though; instead of the (now overused) Hall of the Very Good, the Harold Baines Hall of Fame Wing for Long and Meritorious Service. Which is basically a half-step down from the HOTVG, but I think it does summarize well what was good about Baines and players like him.

http://www.billjamesonline.com/the_harold_baines_hall_of_fame_wing_for_long_and_meritorious_service/

(Not by James, Mookie, so the coast is clear.)

should call it "the gold watch wing"

Next year's election is going to be interesting in terms of who comes off the board either via election or dropping off. I don't see a single guy on the ballot (after Jeter's election) who will remain on for the following election. Giambi, Lee, Abreu, and Konerko all seem like sub-5% guys after seeing what the results are for Berkman, Oswalt, and Young this season. Not to mention Tejada, who I didn't even know was on the ballot til I just checked. I guess he hasn't even received a single vote?

bobby abreu belongs in the hall of the very good -- has to be one of the best offensive players never to crack the top ten in mvp voting in any of his seasons. and another guy who makes baines' selection look terrible

Cliff Lee strikes me as a lesser version of Greinke, with a disproportionate amount of his career value concentrated into three seasons (2008/11/13). Those three seasons account for more than half his career WAR. (Greinke sits at ~35%, but that continues to drop.)

Lee would have been a HOFer if he'd emerged a few years earlier; he won his Cy during his age 29 season, didn't become a quality starter til age 26, and was finished by age 34. his bWAR during that six-year peak run was impressive:

6.8
5.4
5.1
8.5
4.4
6.8

I just remember him seeming just absolutely untouchable for most of that era. a peak period inner circle HOFer, like Santana or Saberhagen.

(xpost) Reader comment:

Great article ..... I would suggest a new name for this HOF wing: The Gold Watch Wing. To get a gold watch when you retire you have to have served the company (MLB) for a long time, served the company honorably, and contributed to the growth of the company ....... instead of an HOF ring they get an HOF Gold Watch
10:18 PM Dec 30th

over on the tracker, 33.3% of the ballots are in.

Walker has picked up 26 and not lost any, which remains far ahead of anyone except for the likely mostly symbolic surge for McGriff in his last season; he's picked up 24 (and lost 2).

the suspected/confirmed PED dudes are still holding steady to last year's pace: Bonds and Clemens have only picked up a pair of votes, Ramirez has gained 4 and lost 6, Sosa has gained 2 and lost 2.

Fingers crossed for Moose this year, but it's tough to tell; he's picked up 12 votes, still needs 37 to reach the number he missed by last season. However 10 fewer ballots appear to have been submitted this season. So who the hell knows...

with 145 ballots in, Walker has picked up 31 votes from the group of 138 returning voters. I'm not sure where his surge lands in terms of voting history but it's very impressive. I think it's a combination of people looking at his numbers a bit more closely, writers starting to stump for him a bit more aggressively, and maybe certain players who recently got a call from the hall make him look a bit better in comparison...

If it’s the latter factor, the hall of fame is going to have to start aggressively buying land.

"say fellows did you ever notice Paul O'Neill hit .284 in the postseason and his career WAR is higher than HOFer Harold Baines?"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7mIqBJqPV0o

They need a Vito Corleone-type presence at next year's Veteran's Committee meeting: "But I'm a superstitious man, and if some unlucky accident should befall this institution--if nine of you should vote for Paul O'Neill for some reason, or if somebody starts talking about what a gamer Dave Stewart was--then I'm going to blame some of the people in this room. And then, I do not forgive."

Walker's only at 15% in this sixth year, and (even though it's not so clear-cut with him) he's got the Coors albatross around him, but I think he's going to be taken up as a cause at some point, like Blyleven and Raines. If he only has 10 years on the ballot, time may run out on him, but I don't know, I'm still confident he'll get in. My own opinion is that he belongs in there.

― clemenza, Monday, June 19, 2017 6:11 PM (one year ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

looks like this may be the case, and Walker's vote pickup this year does seem to be maybe unprecedented, this is after 35% of the ballots are in:

Net gained vote leaders in [says as haughtily as possible] the Tracker era*. Welcome, newcomers!

*We're pretty sure this data is accurate/complete from 2015-Present, but it may also be accurate 2009-Present. @tonycal93 is working to fill in any potential gaps. pic.twitter.com/kmFKxLJAtM

— Ryan Thibodaux (@NotMrTibbs) January 3, 2019

Michael Young has more votes (3) than either Berkman or Oswalt (2)

I'm guessing Schilling does worse with undeclared voters? I'm not sure if more people defiantly vote for him or defiantly not-vote for him. Anyway, he may end up in a photo-finish--73% nearing 40% of the vote, has gained 13 voters and lost only one.

I can't remember why some of the voters don't like Schilling -- it is more based on talent or the fact that he's an asshole?

I think at this point it’s 100% asshole. He has a proper mix of results and mystique

He’s a Hall of Fame asshole

It’s a big hall

he probably makes it in two years, imagining that this year we'll see the Rivera/Halladay/Edgar troika, with a 50/50 shot at Mussina making it. Next year, Jeter/Mussina 100% if he doesn't make it this year. And maybe Walker with a 50/50 shot. Then Schilling the following year.

A real dearth of 2022 candidates iirc

Just on numbers, Schilling should absolutely go in--I can't see any argument against. I figure that people who don't vote for him are primarily sticking it to numbers guys by implicitly saying character matters (I suppose a few older guys are bothered by the low win total), and there are also numbers guys sticking it to character guys by saying who cares?

‘Character clause issues’ is kinda sugar coating someone calling for others to harm you or extrajudicial execution or etc. not directed at anyone here but in the spirit of calling a duck a duck these days...

Posnanski wrote about McGriff today, identifying him as one of three players who may be helped by Baines going in (Veteran's Committee only--and mostly he doesn't think it helps anybody). The other two he mentions--for different reasons--are Garvey and Murphy.

Conversation that evidently took place during this year's VC deliberations:

Anyway, Mad Dog asked Tony La Russa how he could justify voting for Baines and not Garvey, and La Russa sort of hemmed and hawed and hinted that, hey, maybe Garvey should be in there too. I think Garvey's got a real shot.

So yes--that's a problem.

Walker went 3-3 in pickups today, he's received twice as many new votes from returnees than anyone else has, thus far.

I was looking at the next few ballots, up till 2023, and this is pretty funny: Baseball Reference has Tulowitzki on the 2023 ballot. It only feels like he's been retired for the past couple of years.

The logjam will absolutely be cleared up by then--the next four ballots are very light. There are a couple of new sure-things--Jeter and Ortiz--a near sure-thing, Beltran, and A-Rod. And by then, if Bonds and Clemens are in, he may be back to a sure-thing too.

Also Beltre

I don't think he'd go on till 2024, though.