one out all out: a brexit from the modern world and every one of its problems please (we're all gonna die lol)

HRH obviously an ISB fan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fc6riPAaqGU

xpost Yeah never mind - I wasn't really grasping that this is aimed at TM rather that the govt and doesn't invoke the specific FTPA no-confidence procedures, so that's still in the bag (for if/when the vote on the deal fails?). Basically I'm an idiot and will now cede discussion to the non-idiots in the room.

Blimey - @jeremycorbyn has now tabled a motion of no confidence in the PM - announcing it at the end of the statement with the PM watching and walking out at the end... pic.twitter.com/rQVUTxTwRZ

— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) December 17, 2018

May almost looks relieved there

xp nah don’t be like that, only a fool would be certain in these times

Nobody is AT ALL certain of ANYTHING - and this might go on FOREVER too.

so how does this tabling work exactly? when would the actual vote of no confidence take place? does it need to pass some kind of qualifying vote first?

well you see, there's this mace...

Am told Labour chief whip Nick Brown told PLP if the government doesn’t grant time for Jeremy Corbyn’s no confidence motion in Theresa May then Labour will escalate: no confidence motion in government as a whole under Fixed Term Parliaments Act. That has to be granted time

— Nicholas Watt (@nicholaswatt) December 17, 2018

tfw the mayans were right
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_phenomenon#/media/File:East_side_of_stela_C,_Quirigua.PNG

shit's getting real!

Just completed a news round confirming Labour’s victory in forcing the Prime Minister to set a date for the meaningful vote on her proposed deal. Jeremy has taken the sense of the House of Commons which is clearly demanding a vote this week. Fair enough, we’re now going for it.

— John McDonnell MP (@johnmcdonnellMP) December 17, 2018

Corbz obv. got out the wrong side of the bed this morning - 'AVE IT!

Either Corbyn knows something we don't about the Parliamentary arithmetic or this is designed to fail and this is the start of the mechanism that leads to Labour supporting a second referendum.

I thought it might be a test run, because the arithmetic surely isn't there. But fuck knows!

I didn't know the minority party could call a no-confidence vote in the PM...? I will never be able to sort out UK legislative process

yeah agreed theres more to it than just waking up aggro (nothing wrong with that either) and curiius why now rather than waiting to see abt vote on 14th as xyyyzzzz sez

the minority party needs the government's scheduling cooperation to call a vote of no confidence *in the PM*. it may not get it, and it doesn't necessarily mean anything if it passes.

the rules for no confidence *in the government* are more formal and come from the fixed term parliaments act we got to enable the 2010 coalition govt. we're not there yet.

xp yeah they can, but as it’s not a no confidence vote in the government, the government isn’t obliged to give it time to be debated and voted upon. That’s why they’re threatening the vote of no confidence in the government, which HAS to be given time.

Re: 14th, I think the EU deadline is the 21st, which is really too close and suggests May is trying to bounce MPs into voting for it out of fear of no deal. Which is dishonest as it’ll be the same deal that would have lost last week.

Cal’s “Fuck knows!!!” remains the most accurate position though.

May skulking off = quality television/guilty feet ain’t got no rhythm

Either Corbyn knows something we don't about the Parliamentary arithmetic or this is designed to fail and this is the start of the mechanism that leads to Labour supporting a second referendum.

― Matt DC, Monday, December 17, 2018 7:45 PM (fifty-seven minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Very state of this implies the latter. It's that or a big blunder (tho I'd love to be wrong on this).

Idk, it just seems like another gallon of oil onto a fire already way too big to even control. A gallon of oil won't make a whole lot of difference. S'pose Jezza could say he was there and contributed to it, but idk, what's 12d chess the long game here

Annoying furnur speaking:

Jeremy Corbyn has said Labour will table a motion of no confidence in Theresa May personally because she has delayed the vote on her Brexit deal. This is not the same as a proper motion of no confidence in the government and, unlike a proper motion of no confidence, the government does not have to allow time for it to be debated. Labour could hold a debate on the motion when it next gets allocated a day for an opposition debate, at some point in the new year, or it may never get put to a vote at all. (Labour sources have so far not clarified this point.) But the Labour party is arguing that, if the government does not allow time for a debate itself, that shows it is scared of losing and that May does not have the confidence of the Commons.

I love stuff like this. And the scimitar in parliament. And no-one knowing fuck-all if a vote can be postponed, and if so by who, by what terms etc. You need the greatest experts (..) in democracy to explain what is or isn't possible. This is not good.

Sky Sources: the Government will not grant time in Parliament for Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn's motion of no-confidence in Prime Minister Theresa May

— Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) December 17, 2018

I don't think they can possibly win a motion of no-confidence, it would be electoral suicide for the Tories to go to the country now. I suspect Matt DC is OTM.

Either Corbyn knows something we don't about the Parliamentary arithmetic or this is designed to fail and this is the start of the mechanism that leads to Labour supporting a second referendum.

― Matt DC, Monday, December 17, 2018 1:45 PM (two hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

someone explain to me how the second possibility goes down

first, labour opens a jerry can of petrol
it then pours "liberally" all over itself
it then looks around at the several million people hastily lighting matches
???
profit!!

xp They've said (after much arm-twisting) that they'd support a referendum if they can't force a general election - the probably can't do the second, thus the first.

I mean, they have also said a lot of things, as is both strategy and tactics, but this seems fairly from-the-top

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/28/labour-seize-second-brexit-vote-option-john-mcdonnell

Odds of forcing ref 2 not much better if they can't force a general election

They can’t force a GE now, chances are better in January. They can try more than once, Thatcher took three goes at Callaghan before she brought his government down.

all this increased talk of no deal planning being ramped up is extremely comforting

Listen, pal. the medicines are being stockpiled,what else do you want?

There are already Tory calls for a second ref, and ofc you only need 7.

Stuff their mouths with gold...

Hunt / Javid / Mordaunt wanting to look like they're doing it on purpose isn't a good look either

Willingness to seriously countenance no-deal should ordinarily be disqualifying from all high office. It appears to an essential qualification for the next Tory leader.https://t.co/6FBKXWSmMU

— Matthew O'Toole (@MatthewOToole2) December 15, 2018

blame st treesa. 'no deal is better than a bad deal' is the sine qua non for the normalisation of no deal as a viable prospect

They can't force a General Election, but there are enough Tory MPs who would break the party whip to prevent No Deal who would never even consider doing so in a No Confidence vote against their own government. If Labour did officially back a second referendum then they would very likely have the Parliamentary votes which makes it a direct challenge to May's authority.

I think Stephen Bush called it wrong when it said he thought Labour were running the clock down and waiting for the politics to get clearer, when yesterday's events do the opposite. The entire May plan now, perhaps the only plan, is to run the clock down, spook enough Labour MPs with the threat of No Deal that they break their own whip and her deal gets through Parliament, hence the recent appeals to bipartisanship and noises about a free vote.

That's extremely high risk on May's part for all sorts of reasons because if the numbers don't get better for her wrt Tory votes then only the hardcore Brexit Labour MPs will see any value in breaking the whip. But if it did succeed it would both keep Corbyn out of Number 10 until 2022 and undermine his authority in the process. Corbyn knows that hence trying to bring forward the Meaningful Vote.

FWIW I don't think May would have succeeded in this obviously batshit plan but I can see why Labour are looking to close the avenue off.

I saw something by Stephen Bush a week ago that the so-called game is for May to get the other side to blink first (in a rough way - she can't do the politics to make the other side feel they are being spoken to in a grown-up manner), except that all the rival groups at Westminster are doing the same thing.

I thought it was established last week that No Deal is now a complete paper tiger. Not that I don't expect May's tactical game to be absolutely desperate + craven idiocy at this point.

I wouldn't discount anything out. 20% chance of it happening, but I just made that up.

remind again how no deal is avoided using the grieve amendment? parliament has meaningful vote on may deal, this is rejected, MPs then have an opportunity to put down their own suggestions for debate?

The pessimistic view is that even with the Grieve amendment every alternative proposal could be voted down leading to deadlock and No Deal. But someone will probably blink first, just depends who.

The Grieve amendment says that in the event of the deal being voted down the Govt has 21 days to propose the next step, which parliament can vote down before it is taken forward as the new plan.

It doesn't do anything to unlock an impasse - even if we ignore the 21 day provision on the basis of time, anything which couldn't command a majority would conceivably have no chance of being approved which is EVERY FUCKING OPTION.

I think May's plan, if there is one, might be looking like what happened with House of Lords reform. Every option that went forward got voted down, then by eliminating competing options only the original proposal was left as best viable.

The order options are voted on becomes crucial. It's not hard to see a scenario where:

Cancel A50 (rejected majority Tories, DUP, majority Labour)
2nd Ref (rejected majority Tories, DUP, split Labour)
Norway+ (rejected split Tories, split Labour, SNP, LD)
No Deal (rejected split Tories, Lab, SNP, LD)
Maybot deal only thing left not ruled out by parliament.

You have to rule out 2nd Ref before no deal, because you need to eliminate the possible winners first and they will get voted down while less favoured niche unicorns exist.

I don't really follow how that works given that the Maybot deal will already have been voted down by the time the Grieve debate even begins?

from now on we just circle through them voting them down one by one forever

under that scoring system the maybot deal should also have rejected: everyone across from it

i hear yere press are heckling our ambassador now durin speeches

jaysus lads

breaking news: our press is very bad