2018 awards thread

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that's silly, but not as silly as people who are upset about degrom's win not being unanimous. scherzer had a pretty good season, and it's not like this guy had degrom fifth

mookieproof, Friday, 16 November 2018 20:11 (nine months ago) link

When I opened the piece up, I honestly thought it would be somebody talking about FIP or Win Probability Added or wOBA or some small but meaningful-to-him sabermetric edge the writer had discerned in Scherzer's line. His rationale was the last thing I expected (as recently as two or three years ago, it would have been the first thing I expected, which I think is indicative of how fast things are changing).

If you step back and think about how good a season Scherzer had, I think that's a fair statement.

clemenza, Friday, 16 November 2018 20:13 (nine months ago) link

And Randy Jones! As a '70s guy, that had me smiling mightily. (Did he think to check in with Clay Kirby?)

clemenza, Friday, 16 November 2018 20:20 (nine months ago) link

Who, come to think of it, once lost 20, and in '71/'72 went 27-27 with a ERA under 3.00. Clay would have counselled that he vote for deGrom.

clemenza, Friday, 16 November 2018 20:23 (nine months ago) link

Maffei, 70, said

k3vin k., Friday, 16 November 2018 21:53 (nine months ago) link

Scherzer and Nola were somewhat closer to deGrom than the tally indicates. Worrying about whether an award vote is unanimous... idgi. That said, if pitchers are supposed to be eligible for the MVP, the 8 guys who blanked deGrom clearly don't believe it.

And here's Jeff Sullivan who cast his AL vote for Verlander:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/i-voted-for-justin-verlander/

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 16 November 2018 22:24 (nine months ago) link

I always like looking at updated award-shares on Baseball Reference. Scherzer has moved into 8th-place on the Cy list; Verlander into 11th; and Kluber into 15th. (Kershaw was shut out for the first time since 2010.) Trout is 11th on the MVP list--5.06 shares, which at least is a lot more representative than his two awards.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/mvp_cya.shtml

James had a tweet that 97 MVPs are in the HOF, 59 are not, 63%. But I assume the not-in total includes all active winners, some of whom will move into the other column. Of the last 23 winners starting in 2005--Pujols' first MVP; all winners before that are retired--I'd estimate that 12-15 will end up in the HOF, making the ratio more like 110-46, or 70%.

clemenza, Saturday, 17 November 2018 01:32 (nine months ago) link

I liked the Jeff Sullivan piece above--he's basically trying to figure out the same thing I was, how Snell gave up more baserunners than Verlander but fewer runs. He's doing it at a microscopic level--I can't do that--whereas I landed on HR and GIDP (I don't think he mentions either). And he's trying to figure out "To what extent was Snell responsible for his results?" He seems to conclude that there's a lot of luck and good defense involved, while also conceding that "I know pitchers sometimes try to pitch to their ballparks or defenses or whatnot."

I look at Snell's 15-3 advantage in GIDP (in fewer innings) and think, well, give four of the extra double-plays to his defense, four of them to luck/shifting, and the other four to Snell (pitchers do try to induce ground balls, right?). Pure guesswork, I know, but Sullivan admits that there's conjecture in what he does, too: "It’s very possible, if not probable, that’s not giving Snell enough credit. Maybe he was in some way able to pitch to his defenders."

I don't think there's a right answer. His evidence is interesting, but it's so granular, I think you're starting to drift away from the reality of all those extra runs. I liked this reader comment: "Some day, people will be using nothing but spin rate and pitch location to vote for Cy Young. Shortly thereafter, the award will be retired."

clemenza, Saturday, 17 November 2018 13:30 (nine months ago) link

Reader commenter OTM.

Some people tried to make a case for Rizzo based on WPA during the year that Harper won MVP. Nobody claimed that Rizzo had some magical clutch hitting ability, or that it was a repeatable skill, but the bottom line is that those hits did help his team win games, which obviously counts for something. If they'd been closer in WAR it might have made an impact on the voting, like with Snell and Verlander.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Saturday, 17 November 2018 17:37 (nine months ago) link

khris davis beats out j.d. martinez for the edgar martinez designated hitter of the year award

which is pretty absurd

mookieproof, Tuesday, 20 November 2018 19:10 (nine months ago) link

Huh? I'm pretty easy-going when it comes to award voting--I can at least almost always see the outline of the argument as to why some guy did or didn't win, even if I don't agree. But that makes zero sense. You're talking about .247/.326/.549 vs. .330/.402/.629., 2.9 WAR vs. 6.4. Not even close, no matter what metrics you use.

clemenza, Tuesday, 20 November 2018 19:40 (nine months ago) link

the edgar martinez award committee is corrupt

Karl Malone, Tuesday, 20 November 2018 19:45 (nine months ago) link

Martinez appeared in 32 games as a RF, another 25 games in LF, 93 as DH.
Davis appeared in 11 games as a LF, 139 as DH.

i guess they just saw Davis as more of a pure DH? beats me

Karl Malone, Tuesday, 20 November 2018 19:48 (nine months ago) link

apparently voters are instructed to take only stats as a DH into account; martinez hit .297/.373/.597 with 27 HR and 79 RBI in 93 games/400 PA as a DH while davis did essentially everything as a DH

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

mookieproof, Tuesday, 20 November 2018 19:48 (nine months ago) link

i mean...i'd still take that production over davis but ok

Karl Malone, Tuesday, 20 November 2018 19:51 (nine months ago) link

David Price and Jonny Venters have been named winners of the 2018 American League and National League Comeback Player of the Year Awards.

— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) November 20, 2018

mookieproof, Tuesday, 20 November 2018 20:35 (nine months ago) link

Wow, I didn't know Venters' story.

timellison, Tuesday, 20 November 2018 21:15 (nine months ago) link

Khris Davis's magic .247 hat trick carried the day

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 20 November 2018 22:48 (nine months ago) link

the edgar martinez award committee is corrupt

Is this actually comprised of former DHs? What did Jeff Burroughs know, and when did he know it?

clemenza, Wednesday, 21 November 2018 03:26 (nine months ago) link


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